If Mitt Romney wins it’s huge.

It’s a big if.

Rick Santorum is now in the center ring, with Ron Paul, well, the Establishment doesn’t like Mr. Paul.

But anyone talking down what it would mean for Romney if he wins Iowa is simply wrong. It would be a campaign coup of their dreams.

Of course, you won’t hear this on MSNBC, with Chris Matthews and Lawrence O’Donnell tag teaming Romney’s team on Super PAC ads, Al Sharpton joining in, clearly showing the same old bias of this cable network. Thank the gods Rachel Maddow was playing referee, though she was outnumbered and couldn’t manage to keep the whole segment from turning into a farce.

Of course, that’s not to say Romney’s victory doesn’t begin with the Supreme Court’s decision on Citizens United, which many of Mitt Romney’s biggest supporters backed enthusiastically.

However, when you’re going to have an interview with a senior Romney adviser Ben Ginsburg, who should be asked about Super Pacs because he was involved in pushing the case that made Super PACS come alive, you could at least do it fairly or at least one at a time, with a panel that isn’t loaded 4 to 1 against conservatives.

Newt Gingrich wouldn’t be squealing if he had a Super PAC, something all good conservative Republicans are never found without at election season. But hearing Chris Matthews now carry his water is an obvious set up, because if you don’t think Democrats would rather run against Gingrich than Romney you haven’t been paying attention.

MSNBC’s amateur hour election coverage isn’t going to cut it.

As an aside, Keith Olbermann’s “Countdown” will reportedly not be on CurrentTV tonight, which was tweeted by Brian Seltzer. He’s been AWOL the whole Iowa run-up.

People also want to forget that back in the fall Mitt Romney was seen as not being able to compete in Iowa, not having a prayer. However, running a stealth campaign, his team quietly got his 2004 team up and going and plodded a plan to make some sort of showing.

There’s no love for Mitt Romney anywhere, with whatever excitement there is seemingly on the side of Rick Santorum, according to reports on the ground, which is all I’ve got to go on from the Beltway. We’ll see if they’re right or if the media blows it again.

Just one week ago the big momentum was with Ron Paul. But then the Establishment Republican class started floating to the Iowa GOP and every media source that would suck it up that this would mean the end of their status. Suddenly state boosterism exploded and Mitt Romney started rising, as Paul was getting hit on Iran.

Will pragmatism win the caucus day?

If Mitt Romney wins tonight, that will be one reason why. But it will take a big turn out.

I’ve had a very busy post-Iowa day, doing a lot of promotional work for my book, but I wanted to share some thoughts about last night.

Karl Rove said just after 2:00 p.m. eastern time, confirming through official GOP sources, that Mitt Romney will win the Iowa caucuses by 14 votes. However, the final total was 30,015 to 30,007, which is a win of 8 votes. Last night I wrote that a Romney win was huge and he’s got bragging rights, but the story out of Iowa is Rick Santorum and the fact that conservatives have their shot.

You can dissect the political mumbo jumbo of why Iowa gets to go first, but if anything reveals why it’s Rick Santorum’s path to victory.

It’s about maneuvering the field by considering what our country once was, a small group of unaffiliated states at a time when media didn’t exist. Campaigning the old fashion way in Iowa, perhaps, gets us in touch with who we once were, not all of it good, by the way. The trouble is because of this the winner rarely translates to the nomination.

Of course, Rick Santorum wouldn’t have had a chance in Iowa if Republicans had a strong field of candidates that appealed to hard core consevatives, but you go with the politicians you’ve got.

So, conservatives finally have their anti-Romney and this one comes with a right-wing social agenda that’s backed up by true blue collar sensibilities. Mitt Romney has neither.

What Rick Santorum also has is Newt Gingrich at his back. A man who’s out of revenge against the man who took him out in Iowa. Gingrich is coming for Mitt Romney with the intent of taking him out.

Santorum’s also got John McCain endorsing Romney, which will bind conservatives to Santorum forever.

The win, coupled with John McCain and who Mitt Romney is, will also bring Rush Limbaugh and right-wing radio to Santorum’s side.

Rick Santorum, however, is also a man who is against birth control, but loved pork barrel spending, so it’s a target rich environment for Mitt Romney’s oppo murder team.

The sound Santorum is hearing right now is not the buzz of victory. It’s the whirring of Romney Super PAC, preparing to carpet bomb him. – David Axelrod’s, via Twitter

Santorum’s speech, however, was a great moment for this Pennsylvania son of a coal miner. He struck blue collar chords that not one single Republican has touched and he did it a hell of a lot better than Barack Obama has ever done.

Rick Santorum’s extremism is reprehensible and it’s stunning to think the Republicans have given the nod to a man who doesn’t believe in birth control. There’s no way to soften that up, nor is his closed mindedness on gay rights anything but anti-American. But he’s also the first person, beyond Ron Paul, who can talk the language of foreign policy, however right wing, with any conviction and foundation against Pres. Obama.

The man also speaks with real heart and empathy that allows him to connect, something that neither Mitt Romney, who gave a horrible speech, or Pres. Obama possess.

Mitt Romney had the presidential teleprompter set up, but after Rick Santorum started speaking he took it down.

Remind you of anyone?

At least Romney took it down.

Now all Rick Santorum needs is a lot of money and an instant infrastructure that can compete with Mitt Romney, which isn’t going to happen.

Now it’s off to New Hampshire.

“It is not necessarily about the history of his involvement on Wall Street,” Huntsman said, shortly after addressing a room full of doctors and other medical employees at Dartmouth Medical Center in Lebanon, N.H. “It is the fact that he has raised so much money from the large banks, the banks that need to be right-sized. If you are the largest recipient of funds from Wall Street, and in particular the large banks, you are not going to be inclined to want to change that model. Because those who run those banks want no change, they profit off the status quo and clearly they are not going to be inclined to want to bring about any change.” – Sam Stein, Huffington Post

What’s left to wonder is when will Sarah Palin endorse?

Memo to GOP Star Chamber. RE: Not Losing the *(&#! House and Senate GOP Majority w/ Newt Disaster. Time for a Secret Meeting. – Mike Murphy tweet

Newt Gingrich slammed Mitt Romney in South Carolina, winning by 12 points.  He now leads in Florida. The above tweet by uber Republican Mike Murphy reveals the flop sweat inside GOP central

Mitt Romney needed a strong interview with Chris Wallace yesterday and he got one. Romney communicated easily for the first time in a while, seemed relaxed, but also forthcoming on mistakes made, including that letting his tax returns distract his campaign. So, he announced on Fox he’ll be releasing his 2010 on his website Tuesday, as well as an outline of his 2011 returns. Romney will never be warm and fuzzy, but when confronted on his religion and tithing and other personal issues, he acquitted himself well today.

Mark, my husband and a recovering Mormon, had one big beef with Romney when it came to his answer on tithing. In the Mormon Church, every year you have to declare to the bishop whether you’re giving a full 10%. Romney could have said that he gave 10% to his church long before he had his own money. He could have opened up and stated the verse in the Old Testament and shown some heart at the core of his faith. Since he needs to win over more conservatives, it’s the move to make.

This is the biggest issue in Mitt Romney’s candidacy. Not the Mormonism, but the inability to allow conservatives to see what makes the man who he is. With Newt unloading to the point of too much information on every subject in the universe, Romney comes off even more inaccessible, which will be deadly going forward.

Meanwhile, Romney surrogate Chris Christie played offense on Meet the Press for Mitt Romney, making the best case for him, showing the attribute Romney doesn’t, which is being able to connect and talk straight in a way that would be a real attribute on Romney’s team, including as vice president. Christie was on fire today.

Gov. Christie said aloud what a lot of people are whispering behind Gingrich’s back:

“I think Gingrich has embarrassed the party over time,” he said. “Whether he’ll do it again in the future, I don’t know. But Gov. Romney never has. … We all know the record. He was run out of the speakership by his own party. He was fined $300,000 for ethics violations. This is a guy who has had a very difficult political career at times and has been an embarrassment to the party. You remember these times, you were here. …I don’t need to regale the country with that entire list again except to say this: I’m not saying he will do it again in the future, but sometimes past is prologue.”

Mitt Romney’s down, but he’s far from being out. He knows he’s got a real fight in Florida, which he needs to win. Between Romney and Christie, it’s clear they’re coming for Newt Gingrich in a whole new way. The issue of character is now going to be up front.

According to Carl Cameron and Chuck Todd, Perry will drop, but FNC says he will also endorse the Newtster. Burns & Haberman have a write-up.

He tried bashing gays in Iowa.

He tried race baiting in South Carolina, leading a charge on a new civil war on behalf of religion.

But he just doesn’t have the national chops.

Rick Perry is reportedly dropping out on quite a news day for the men who could benefit from his departure.

Marianne Gingrich in an interview is rumored, according to Fox News Channel, to say that Newt’s a wannabe swinger. If that image doesn’t launch your gag reflex nothing will. Such salacious sniping from an ex-wife seems made for South Carolina.

Then you have Rick Santorum “winning” Iowa, after a recount in that state.

It leaves Mitt Caman Cash Romney up against it, because the gaffes of this guy, as I’ve written before, are starting to pile up high. If Republicans start doubting Caman Cash Mitt’s electability, what else does he have?

Looking at November, if you can’t beat Pres. Obama, you might as well beat him up and Newt’s the guy who can do that best.

Momentum Newt.

Who’s bringing the beer for tonight’s CNN debate?

E.J. Dionne didn’t expect it, but it didn’t surprise me at all after watching her during the budget battle. So, not only was Michele Bachmann the only one who had any star quality, she made news too. But she should have skipped this very weird webvid of her announcement.

Tim Pawlenty blew it big time and there’s video to prove it. What the strategy on that was all about is anyone’s guess, but it was a colossal mistake. It’s also hard to imagine T-Paw not panicking a bit upon imagining his Iowa chances vanishing with Bachmann’s strong performance. His record may delight Republicans, but he has no presence at all. I don’t now how he comes back from this, as his first debate was a snooze.

Mitt Romney made it through untouched, choosing to draw a picture for viewers of him debating Obama, saying to everyone I’m your nominee. He also tried to weave an answer on Afghanistan that didn’t offend Republican primary voters, while having it both ways by not trying to alienate the general election voter, most of whom want out of Afghanistan.

If Jon Huntsman was watching and you can bet he was, he’s got to sense Romney’s vulnerable to a Republican who actually knows his mind and is clear on matters of foreign policy.

Republicans will now have to deal with Rep. Bachmann. Her politics are not only representative of the Tea Party, but also of their extreme views. From TeamBachmann on Twitter:

Here’s a #prolife solution from MB: Let’s require mothers to hear the heartbeat before getting an abortion. #cnndebate

Few things are as offensive coming from a conservative than demanding government intervene in a woman’s most wrenching decision and moment in her life, while being subjected to steps along the way that are beyond any legal requirement of Roe or Griswold. I’d really like to take Republicans seriously, but this type of rhetoric against women’s freedoms is reprehensible from an American political party that lectures everyone on freedom and liberty.

Obama’s Libya policy, such as there is one, wasn’t popular last night either and I’d like to talk further about foreign policy, but John King didn’t introduce it until there was around 15 minutes left in the 2-hour debate.

Where Jon Huntsman fits in this group, well, he doesn’t. Maybe that will be his ace if he decides to get in, which is what everyone is waiting to see.