So, this is my prediction. Romney 295, Obama 243. I’m basing it basically on Gallup and Rasmussen giving a single point win for the national vote to Romney, 49-48. I’m also guessing that the polls that have unreasonable expectations for Democratic turnout are a bit off (anything beyond D+2/3, which is the pre-2008 standard). I think it is entirely likely that the last-minute deciders will either vote for Romney, vote for a third-party, or not vote at all. It just seems unlikely to me that after four years, a 48% approval versus Romney, a (barely) 50% approval rating, and a 53% “wrong track” poll, that Obama can expect anything beyond a 50/50 for undecideds in his direction in swing states. I think Romney will take something closer to 55-60% (or more) of the undecideds in a lot of the swing states. But I think the actual vote in a lot of these states is going to be incredibly close. Extremely loud and incredibly close. I think Obama has a fairly good shot at winning, but I think Team Romney has put so many blue states in play that it is more likely he will win, even though a fair amount of the blue states in question have similar demographics and state issues. I just figure there are enough variations in each state electorate that if Romney doesn’t take, say Ohio, he still could possibly take Wisconsin because of say, the latter state’s GOP ground game (which came about because of the never-ending recall elections) could mean victory. I also want Romney to win, so that might have something to do with it. What this campaign makes me think about, though, is more interesting than a snapshot of national opinion. Sort of.
If Obama wins
If Obama wins, the Democratic Party will continue to get pounded in most down-ticket races. 2010 gave the GOP the greatest House majority it has had in over 60 years. It gave the Republicans control of 29 governors’ mansions, and they are on track to add North Carolina, Montana and Washington state to the GOP column. The GOP has also never been as strong in as many state legislatures as it does now-it now owns 27 state legislatures outright (28, if you include Nebraska). The Dems control only 15 state legislatures, with the remaining being divided. Furthermore, California is the only large state with outright Democratic control (and we’re seeing how well that’s going). So, 2010 was a big deal. State governments matter-they allow for the execution of various policies and are easily comparable, allowing for striking contrasts. They also provide a stepping-stone to the race for the Presidency, something that will no shit start happening as soon as Obama is re-elected for the GOP. There aren’t too many more places that the GOP can realistically expand its reach (Kentucky, West Virginia, Colorado, Minnesota and Connecticut are our best bets, and if we want to short-circuit a powerful challenger, we need to win New York). The Senate will probably-finally-fall to the GOP in 2014. After fumbling it in 2010 and 2012, there will probably be a reconfiguration at the top of the NRSC and state GOP offices to fix the process of picking candidates. Ideological purity will probably still be an issue in some places, but the GOP will probably become more cautious about destroying its old guard, now that we have screwed our chances for what will be four years.
Which gets us to the inevitable ideological war that will erupt if the GOP stays in opposition. Instantly, Romney will be labeled either “too moderate to win” or “too conservative to win.” Paul Ryan will remain the intellectual godfather of the Party and might be the frontrunner in some circles to take on Clinton or Cuomo in 2016. But because the GOP has so many prominent officerholders throughout the country (see above paragraph), it is likely the primary contest will be filled with what in UK politics they call the “Big Beasts”-people like Ryan will compete with folks like Christie, Walker, Haley, Rubio and Thune (and maybe even Daniels, returning from the wilderness of Purdue’s Presidency). In the end, the GOP has already basically decided it will be a conservative alternative to the statism of the modern Democratic Party, and in the end it will be more a contest of who can appeal to more people. I suppose the nature of the conservative-vs-moderate thing will be mostly a child of how badly Romney loses.
The Democratic Party will probably become a husk, much the way the GOP did at the end of the Bush years. The GOP will hold on to the House as long as Obama is in the Oval Office, and they will use their investigatory powers to get answers on Fast and Furious and Benghazi, the second of which has the power to cripple this administration for years. I often use hyperbole, especially in talking about politics, but I cannot think of a worse scandal for any administration. I also totally expect Obamacare to be not just back in the courts (the numerous First Amendment issues are finally getting looked at now, as they were not acknowledged with this past summer’s ruling), but at the front and center of political debate throughout the country as it is being implemented, and it will not be a vote-winner. There are already so many incredibly ridiculous things in it beyond the massive tax increases and the effective end of choice in provider, it will keep the administration on the defensive for much of the second term.
I don’t expect any movement toward bipartisanship in the next four years. Obama just does not understand how government in this country works. Sorry if that sounds partisan, but Clinton found a way to get along with Gingrich. The President is the Head of State and the Head of Government, and it is incumbent on him to make the relationship work. Yes, the GOP is full of conservatives. But the Democratic Party isn’t a bunch of moderates. And this isn’t a parliament. I suspect Obamacare and Dodd-Frank have so many insane problems that will effectively be a huge malfunction and unpredictable, and Obama will not be able to negotiate anything with the Republicans. The latter of which will have almost no reason to negotiate-they will then have their worse fears confirmed, that these pieces of terrible legislation will destroy the economy even further, and then they will hedge their bets that the White House will be their’s. And it will be. Like I said, the Dems will be not just exhausted from the typical second term all-out defensive, they will literally be driven out of government in most places outside the beltway. Their party infrastructure will be severely weakened because the best and brightest will leave for bigger and better things and the B-Team comes in as it sometimes does in second terms. Recruiting good candidates will become more difficult as the prospects for victory will be even further.
But, as good as this may play for the Republicans in one sense, the purpose of parties and politics is not to see who can win as many offices as possible, but to win the ones that count the most and enact the policies that are best for the country. And that’s why I hope this scenario does not come to pass.
If Romney wins
Chris Christie will have a hell of a fight in New Jersey. As will all other GOP governors running for re-election in 2014. If Romney does what he pledges, his administration will polarize the nation in a way more like Thatcher than like Reagan. The fights in Wisconsin, Ohio and New Jersey-of the knights of the Old Blue Order-will go national, and it will take considerable nerve (and careful negotiations in the Senate) to get it done. I think there is a greater chance for a Romney landslide than an Obama one due to incumbency and yatta yatta, but by the time I get back from Afghanistan, I think it’s a safe bet to expect Romney’s approval rating will be lower than he’d like. Sweeping reforms of Medicare/Medicaid and Social Security are essential for this administration to be able to say in 2016 that it got the debt and deficit under control, which is basically its life mission in the first term.
It is probable that the Dems (under not Pelosi) will win control of the House in 2014, though the GOP will still have a fair shot at winning control of the Senate that year due to states up with Class II seats. Andrew Cuomo, Deval Patrick and Martin O'Malley will be the front-runners for the 2016 nod.
It will be very interesting to see how the GOP develops intellectually and ideologically through the Romney years (especially if it gets beat in 2016). Due to the looming fiscal apocalypse, it’s now or never for a lot of pretty good ideas first dreamt of at AEI and the Hoover Institute over the past twenty or so years. I doubt all of them will be implemented or executed in the best fashion. It will also be really, really interesting to see how Romney (and Obama, actually) deals with sequestration (hopefully in the lame duck, they just push everything to the middle of next year to get some breathing room) and the must-do-now reform of Obamacare. Because of his business experience, I suspect Romney and his friends will be cooking up a fairly sizable agenda as the Obama era comes to a close. And not too brief it was.
BONUS: No matter who wins, we will attack another nation in the “arc of instability” between now and November 8th, 2016.