Ukraine Teeters on Brink of Bankruptcy

Ukraine is bankrupt! And here is where the EU’s vision needs to play in solving the difficult long term issues in Ukraine. It will not be easy and will require a perfect and lasting coordination between the EU and the US and to some degree an open channel with Moscow. Ukraine’s economic needs are dire and immediate. The EU needs to come up with a significant aid package and a plan for a long term shoring up of Ukraine. This needs to be a tool to support a democratic and effective transition in Ukraine. The resistance will be fierce. In the name of independence, dignity and the “heroes of the Miadan” the new power will do anything to access help while making no or very limited concessions. This is a trap. Not only prior mistakes that followed the Orange Revolution need to be avoided but a clear message is needed. No pussyfooting and soft language but a stark message: the old style power politics using nationalism as a forint to oligarchs and politicians fighting for trophies will not receive Western carte blanche backing. This also needs to send Moscow a clear message that the alternative narrative and its propaganda and separatism discourse is going to backfire. A democratic and reformed Ukraine is going to be a difficult and long term process. The first day of the new regime does not bid well. The new president Turchynov is a former secret service head close to Tymoshenko and her oligarchic business empire and also known for shady dealings with thugs in Ukraine and Russia. Among the first laws voted by the new Parliamentary majority in Kiev was one abolishing minority languages in contradiction not only with European standards but also prior practice. The game of nationalism and mythical hero worshiping has started and it does not signal good things. Again the EU and the West has a powerful tool to quell these reflexes and influence the process. The conditionality should be less about EU business in Ukraine and more about Ukrainian political, legal and governance standards. Just a final note that the article linked here contains a significant mistake. It claims Ukraine’s industrial and mining hub lies in the west and it agricultural heartland in the east. It is quite the opposite.