John Kerry warns of consequences for Russia after Ukraine invasion

The sanctions need to have some bite. Let’s look a bit at the simplified picture. It is clear by now that Moscow has figured in some “consequences” and decided the cost is worth it. This includes the strategic and actual operational costs as well as long tail effects like those of economic sanctions, loss of business etc. One expects that they believe the increase in energy prices will offset some of these costs. The political ones are relative. Sochi showed us Moscow is still much interested in status but the primary target for the show was domestic not international. Not inviting Russia at G8 is a step but Russia and its partners in the fast emerging economies have already set up a similar BRICS meeting to hollow this option out. NATO Russia and NATO EU councils have been essentially meaningless lately. With president Obama having shunned away from a meeting with Putin this is not an option either. In both Syria and Iran the US and the West need Russia … That leaves precious few options. There will be no UN sanctions so these will be unilateral and decided by the West. So it will look like a new Cold War but so does what’s going on in Ukraine. Depending on who you ask it resembles Cyprus in 1974 or Czechoslovakia in 1968. One practical option increased NATO presence in the Black Sea at the limit of what current treaties allow. The US NATO Anti Missile Shield that Moscow is adamant about being a threat to its interests needs to be accelerated and extended. While having absolutely no impact on the strategic and military balance between Russia and the West it is symbolically an area that Russia appears sensitive too. Freezing military sales to Russia will also be a strong signal and it depends on countries like France stoping the delivery of Mistral class costal warfare ships. Complicated given the importance of those jobs in the French economy right now! The final packet of possible sanctions is largely economic and needs to include individuals, businesses and institutions. Economic sanctions will hurt Western businesses too but it appears the only way. It will all come down to the EU’s ability to drastically reduce its energy imports form Russia. Together with positive signals like a visa facilitation agreement for Ukraine and a string financial package for Kiev these will have an effect not only on Moscow’s policies but also how these are perceived by the Russian public. Today Russian citizens are not isolated Soviet subjects they travel! Again we are looking at Germany to see if the West and the EU is able to operate in sync and create a common position that is backed by coherent and sustained policies. And watching the US to see if it can help the EU make those decisions. Lately it was not the case and we got bogged down in this mess that is to a large degree a self made predicament. Russia bets this has not changed! AT