This is getting weirder and weirder day by day. So here is what we know:

1. Petr Cech still has 2 more years left on his current deal.

2. Courtois also has 2 more years left on his current deal with Chelsea.

3. Mark Schwarzer, Chelsea’s backup keeper for last season told a few days ago that Mourinho wants him to stay for one more season. 

4. Atletico Madrid sign Getafe goalkeeper Miguel Angel Moya on a three-year deal last week. This guy is good enough to walk into starting lineup in many top teams.

5. Courtois has said that he knows what is going to happen next season and that he will reveal it only after the World Cup. 

And now Atletico Madrid president Enrique Cerezo has the following to say about Courtois:

“There’s a little problem, which is Chelsea. I imagine if Chelsea wants him to stay for the season, they’ll keep him and if not, it’s best if we reach an agreement, which is to keep him with us for another season.”

I would be totally OK if this is what happened. Cech is still playing awesome. Schwarzer is a sufficiently good backup. Hilario is a sufficiently good 3rd choice keeper who never gets to do anything. And Courtois will never be happy competing for places when he knows he can walk into starting lineup of every single team on the planet. 

But his quotes imply that even he doesn’t know anything. So I suppose this is still a ‘hoping for the best’ situation. The following situations are possible (in order of decreasing preference):

1. Cech and Schwarzer stay. Courtois goes back to AM for another season. Cech leaves after the end of next season and CFC make good money on his transfer. Courtois takes over manning the goal posts after that for CFC. 

2. Cech and Courtois both stay in CFC next season and compete against each other. Tensions rise. Cech is sold after next season. 

3. Cech stays and signs a contract extension for another 4 years. Courtois is sold for a big price. 

Trust me when I say I do not want to see #3. At all. Agreed that Cech is likely going to be good enough for another 3-4 years. But this is a rebuilding project that is currently underway. He is undoubtedly a legend, but Cech will not be part of it. CFC may do good to make money off of him next season. 

In my last post, I had outlined the set of circumstances surrounding a consistently successful team over a period of time. Now using that same school of thought, let’s look at the current teams in England, in Europe and some of the national teams as well. Inevitably we will have to start with Chelsea. 

1. Chelsea FC: Chelsea are in a very interesting position. Their core attacking group now consists of Oscar, Hazard, Willian, Schurle along with the impending arrival of Diego Costa and Fabregas. The first 5 are all between 22 and 25 and they are likely to reach their peaks periods in the next 1-3 years and stay there for a further 3-5 years. Hazard has been an early bloomer but he still has so much higher to go. The latter Spanish duo just got into their prime and should be ready to go immediately. Central midfield and defense has Matic, Terry, Cahill, Azpilecueta and Ivanovic. Matic, Cahill and Ivanovic are in their peak period right now and still have a few more years left in them - Matic in particular. Terry has 1 more year maybe left in him. Azpilecueta is still yet to hit his peak.

The important thing to note among the players mentioned above is that they are supremely talented and during their peak period, they are anticipated to be what we can call as ‘world class’ players. So let’s assume Chelsea do some sensible bit of business and buy another central mid-fielder this transfer window who is just about to hit his peak, and let’s also assume that Mourinho stays for the next 3-5 years and gets to instill his system of playing into all the members.

This would mean that starting this very next season, Chelsea would be on the rise with 4-5 world class players beginning to play at their peak. I do not expect them to be in a truly devastating form for this season and next. But after that, if the circumstances stay the same, my money is on Chelsea getting to the final of the UEFA Champions League in 2-3 of those following 4 seasons and winning it at least once. Domestically, I see them winning 3-4 league titles in the next 5 seasons including next season.  

In addition to all of this, Chelsea have a number of very young players between the ages of 18 and 22 playing in the academy or having a very successful loan spell elsewhere. Kenneth Omeruo, Kurt Zouma, Tomas Kalas, Nathan Ake, Christian Atsu, Lewis Baker, Jon Swift, Bamford are all very young and very good talent - between 19 and 21 years of age. They will take another 3-5 years at least to fully season and reach their peak periods by which time they will be ready to add further value to the team already playing at their peak. I am looking at them as the batch of peak period performers that will come after this current crop. That is if Chelsea still hold on to them. 

Let’s hope Chelsea do hold on to them. 

In the next post, I will be looking at two teams that perfectly illustrate the other end of the cycle where it’s all downhill after the peak: Manchester United and FC Barcelona. 

Previously, parts I and II 

I had discussed the idea of Chelsea’s best years lying ahead as the fruits of their rebuilding effort begin to take shape. In the same vein, in this post, I will be discussing the situations of one club that is at the other end of the cycle: the one where it’s all downhill. 

1. Manchester United: Being a Chelsea fan, it is a no-brainer that I have thoroughly enjoyed watching the complete destruction of Man Utd last season. But in this post, I will keep those sentiments aside and look to outline something that should have been so damn obvious to everyone. 

Man United had their peak period as a team between 2006 and 2011. During that time, they won 4 Premier League titles, 2 League Cups, 1 Uefa Champions League, 1 FIFA Club World Cup, and were runners up in UCL one other time. That is an extremely illustrious list of titles no matter who you support. There is no doubt, as such, that Man Utd had their best period is recent history between ‘06 and '11. As mentioned in the previous posts, such a successful period is only possible if most of the players in the team are playing at their peak and there are about 3-5 world class players in the team as well. The starting XI for United’s team during that period went something like this:

Van der Saar, Rio Ferdinand, Vidic, Evra, Wes Brown, Carrick, Scholes, Anderson, Rooney, Tevez, and Ronaldo. 

Now that is SOME lineup - especially when all of them are playing at their peaks and you have about 6-7 world class players in the team in different positions. No wonder this team won so many trophies in that period. 

But that was back then. United even managed to win two more league titles in the following 3 years. These titles came about not because United was still that powerhouse with world class players playing in their prime. It was simply because of Sir Alex Ferguson’s brilliance, coupled with some terrible form displayed by some of their main rivals that they continued winning titles. Granted they did get hold of RVP during that time. But for context, this was the list of players who played in their positions during SAF’s last 3 years:

Goalkeeper: De Gea, Lindergaard

Defenders: Vidic, Ferdinand, Evra, Raphael, Smalling, Evans, Phil Jones

Midfielders: Carrick, Paul Scholes, Valencia, Anderson, Cleverley, Nani, Young, Kagawa

Forwards: Van Persie, Rooney, Welbeck, Hernandez

The main thing to observe here is the number of players who are common to the starting lineup in 2012/13 and 2007/08. I count 6. 

Clearly, Manchester United tried to sign some new younger players - Valencia, Smalling, Phil Jones, Cleverley, Hernandez, Kagawa and maybe even RVP (who was 28 at that time). But apart from RVP, none of them turned out to be world class. This was partly because some of them were good but not great players (Valencia, Kagawa, Hernandez) and some were just too damn young to make the necessary impact in the big games as they still needed a lot of experience (Smalling, Cleverley, Jones). As a result, SAF and to an extent, even Moyes, reverted to playing with the old guard who were way past their prime (Vidic, Ferdinand, Evra, Carrick). 

The end result was that United’s central midfield and defense consisted either of ageing players way past their prime or with extremely young players with little to no experience playing in the big games. Add to this the likelihood that the younger players were just not good enough to start with, and you have the perfect recipe for disaster at the back. Little surprise then that United capitulated at the back on numerous occasions this past season. 

So ultimately, even during the 2013/2014 campaign under Moyes, United were practically playing the same team they played during 2007/08 with a few inferior additions who are unlikely to reach the same peak as their predecessors - based on what they have displayed so far. So it was never all Moyes’ fault. Yes he did get his team selection wrong on many occasions. But he could only do so much with a team having world class attacking talent and an ageing and/or below par central midfield and defense. 

No wonder all the rumours about Van Gaal’s summer transfer targets are in the areas of defense and central mid-field. I am really curious to see what kind of talents United can attract now - considering they do not have European football to offer. Chelsea was almost in that same boat in 2012 before they won the Champions League thus ensuring UCL football for the next season. Then they went on to buy Hazard and Oscar. But United don’t have anything to offer apart from their 'history’ and rich tradition (*cough!* Liverpool *cough!*). Will they land Paul Pogba (SAF’s $80m mistake), or Alexis Sanchez or Luke Shaw? 

We will have to wait and see.