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poll snippets re Gaza, Scotland, Boris

some interesting poll snippets from YouGov today:

• re Gaza: 33% think British government should do more to condemn Israel versus 7% who want Britain to support Israel more and 26% who say the balance is right. 44% think Warsi was right to resign. This is in line with other polls showing a significant (and as far as I can tell unprecedented) rise in explicit sympathy for the Palestinian cause over the past few weeks.

• re Scotland: Yes on 39%, No on 61%. This ain’t good for the Yes camp and looks worse when you examine the “don’t knows” and “won’t votes”. Even if all of them pile into the Yes camp it’ll still pan out as 45% to 55%. And 53% say that campaign has gone on long enough and are ready to vote. So looks like I can kiss goodbye to my hefty bet on a Yes win earlier this year.

• re Boris: Peter Kellner reports that the Boris effect (whereby he would attract support from people who wouldn’t vote for any other Tory) "seems to have almost disappeared".

Last year and the year before, Labour’s lead declined sharply when voting intention was asked, if Boris replaced Cameron as Tory leader. But in our latest poll, it makes only a tiny difference. London’s Mayor does not seem to be quite the crowd-puller that he used to be.

I’m increasingly thinking that Labour is actually going to win an overall majority next year, especially if Miliband continues making socialist noises over what I’ve called mass social issues like the NHS and education.