“The movement fueled by a common ideology has morphed into more of an AQ hydra, with the old core weakened but new franchises and inspired individuals taking on the global jihadi mantle,” said Juan Zarate, a White House counterterrorism adviser to former President George W. Bush, referring to the multi-headed serpent of Greek mythology.

‘LONE WOLVES’

A worrisome development is the proliferation of individual violent militants – the “lone wolves” – who operate unseen by intelligence agencies and police and can create mayhem with a carful of home-made explosives or guns. The result is a lower risk of future large conflagrations but a growing threat of smaller attacks that could be harder to detect and thwart.

“Future attacks against America will be less complex, less well organized, less likely to succeed, less lethal if they do succeed. They will just be more numerous,” said retired General Michael Hayden, who led the CIA and National Security Agency.

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Brennan said that over the past 2 ½ years – the period since Obama became president – more than half of al Qaeda’s top leaders have been eliminated and virtually every affiliate has lost its key leader or operational commander.