The ‘VP Bounce’ – or why Romney backers shouldn’t get excited about polling.
Over at FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver dismisses the idea that any boost in the polling for Romney after his choice of Paul Ryan for his running mate shows momentum for the Republican ticket.
The issue is simply this: in past elections, candidates have typically gotten a “bounce” in the polls after naming their running mates. When I use the term bounce, what I mean is that they get a temporary boost to their numbers which then fades. But while the bounce is under way, the polls will overrate their standing somewhat.
He goes on to write that, under one model, “it’s a bad sign for Mr. Romney that Mr. Ryan has produced a below-average bounce so far.” But remember that it’s called a “bounce” for a reason – it goes up and comes back down again.
Source: The New York Times
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