So it looks like we’ll have an ice-free Arctic by 2058. Greenland beach party!
As ice in the Arctic Ocean continues to melt, researchers have now pinpointed an exact year when the Arctic will be ice free– 2058. That’s not far from now. Sure, I’ll be old and I won’t give a fuck, but that it’s within 35 years is a little disturbing.
Ice-free in this context refers to a time period during any given year—generally arriving in September after withstanding the heat of summer. Not long after scientists began to recognize that the planet has been heating up, many began to realize that a warmer planet would mean warmer temperatures in the Arctic—enough warming and the Arctic would eventually become ice-free during part of the year. Many researchers using many models and simulations have sought to project when that might happen, as global warming projections have now made it a near certainty. In this new effort, the research team used a climate modal called Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Phase 5 is the latest version of the model, which is why the team chose to use it.
One of the factors that the newest version of CMIP5 takes into consideration is ice thickness—the thinner the ice the faster it will melt—recent research suggests ice in the Arctic is growing thinner. It also uses various factors in attempting to simulate ice extent— ice covering less area to start with means less will be left at the end of summer. CIMP5 also allowed the researchers to make comparisons between historical projections and what actually transpired in the real world. As one example, the team gave the simulation data for the time period 1979 through 2011. By running simulations from various models and comparing them, the team was able to come up with a scenario that best represented what actually occurred. Once that was accomplished, they were able to use the same constraints to project most accurately what might occur in the future.
The overall result of their simulations gave rise to the same general prediction—that the Arctic will be ice-free for several months of every year, starting sometime during the years 2054 to 2058.
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