The City of Morgantown — How The Sausage Gets Made: Stupid Claims About...

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How The Sausage Gets Made: Stupid Claims About Heavy Trucks Edition

Late last week, WAJR started hyperventilating about a letter it claimed to have uncovered that showed definitively that coal and limestone truck traffic is safer than other kinds of heavy vehicles. We were meant to conclude that the attempt to ban certain kinds of heavy truck traffic downtown was an unjust and inappropriate solution. 

This website alleged - quite rightly - that the letter was almost certainly prepared by somebody with an interest in protecting the heavy trucks from any sort of regulation. We went so far as to suggest that this person might have some involvement with the Raese family, the people that own a huge majority of our local media outlets (including WAJR) and Greer Limestone (one of the companies that benefits from trucking as it is currently regulated). 

We were wrong about that though. The letter was written by Glen Kelly, Morgantown’s assistant city manager. Ignoring the oddity of the letter writer’s name not being disclosed in the breathless WAJR article - how did WAJR happen to stumble across this letter again? - It shouldn’t be particularly surprising that Greer Limestone’s report…err, I mean WAJR’s reporting on the letter doesn’t exactly match what was actually contained within.

So if you’d just read the WAJR story, you’d know that the organizations that have had the most accidents between 2006 and 2014 were the county’s two busing groups (Mountainline and the County Schools), a trash company (Allied), a beverage delivery company, and a fuel delivery company. You wouldn’t know though that the letter included the top-twelve most accident prone companies, and that the next seven were heavy trucking groups. WAJR somehow forgot to mention that. 

WAJR also neglected to contextualize the numbers in even the slightest way, although it might be worth noting that the letter itself didn’t bother to engage in anything more critical than, “So, here are the companies that have had the most accidents. That’s all. Don’t bother thinking more about this.”

Here are some of the most obviously manipulative examples:

-The seven companies who filled spaces six through twelve were counted as being independent of one another. The issue of course isn’t specific companies, but rather, the heavy trucks themselves. Counting their numbers separately makes it appear as if their accident totals are less than. One wonders what the total number of heavy truck accidents were, something that is impossible to know from Glen Kelly’s memo. 

-The 2006-2014 numbers include all accidents within city limits. Buses and trash trucks travel everywhere throughout the city. Heavy trucks do not. One wonders what the numbers would have been if any sort of control had been introduced into the calculation of these accident totals. For example, who has had the most accidents along the routes that would be affected by the proposed prohibition on heavy truck traffic

-The number of opportunities to have accidents matters too - Kelly calculated that there had been 268 total accidents during the eight year period from 2006-2014, or roughly 33 accidents per year. Who was having the most accidents per opportunity to have an accident?

That last one is an interesting one, mostly because one half of this city never wants to talk about proportional realities. That half likes raw numbers. We saw this last during the insanely stupid debate about the city’s Vote By Mail program. Jim Manilla, Ron Bane, Wesley Nugent, and Linda Herbst opposed the program, and insisted that all we think about was the total cost of the program. What they didn’t want voters to focus on was an analysis of something more refined, like cost-per-vote. Vote By Mail was much, MUCH, cheaper than the alternative when effectiveness was taken into account, which was precisely why those four had no interest in considering effectiveness at all. 

It should be noted that our current City Manager, Jeff Mikorski, and Kelly owe their jobs to that council. Mikorski got his job after those four chased the previous City Manager from the job via back-channel bad behavior. Kelly came just as the previous council was transitioning to the current one (after a devastating electoral outcome Manilla, Herbst, and the candidates they’d used to try to beat current sitting councilors). It would appear as though Mikorski and Kelly are both continuing to carry out the 2011-2013’s City Council embrace of manipulative mathematics designed to steer the city toward particular outcomes.

And of course, WAJR is happy to play along. After all, the city’s report said what WAJR already believed about what was and what wasn’t good policy for the city. That’s why the letter’s claims were published without anybody asking anything about the quality of the claims being made. WAJR clearly never said, “How exactly were these conclusions reached?” It simply saw what it wanted, twisted the letter’s conclusions even further, and declared victory. 

This city continues to deserve better, both from its media, and from its officials, but barring a significant change in the ownership of either, it ain’t gonna happen.  

Morgantown Heavy Truck Traffic Safe Streets Morgantown Monongalia County Morgantown City Council West Virginia

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