It’s been years since Dana Holgorsen would have been subjected to any kind of standardized testing, but if I had to guess, he may not have been the best at SAT analogies remember those? At his Tuesday press conference this week (aka Holgorsen’s Rant, Holgs’s Harangue, Holgs-oration, the “Air-Raid” of Grievances), Dana was presented with the following internal analogy to complete
WVU : Bowling Green :: ________ : ________
a) LSU : Kentucky
b) Ole Miss : Southern Illinois
c) Mississippi State : Louisiana Tech
d) Oklahoma State : Louisiana Lafayette
e) Texas Tech : Weber State
Let’s check the tape (from msnsports.net)
So why did we have 20,000 less people out there for this one than that one? The funny part of it was we all were talking about it two weeks ago how much difference the fans and the crowds are going to make to the LSU people. LSU played well in front of 62,000 of our people and then turned around and went home and played a 1-4 Kentucky team at noon and had 95,000 fans. You want talk about an elite program, that’s one. I don’t know about this place.
Unfortunately, he chose A, which is probably the worst analogy he could have chosen and has rightfully been criticized for it by
professionals and
amateurs. Trying to not get hung up on his poor choice and being a lover of numbers, I cracked open an Excel worksheet and began some serious internet research. My argument: had he chosen a better analogy there would be a lot less to criticize of some of the truth he spoke.
With all of the conference realignment speculation (I promise this is only a minor diversion into the most annoying news item since Brett Favre’s retirement and/or penis), a significant portion of WVU fans have been making passionate cries that WVU belongs in the SEC. (How’s this for an analogy Big East : Basketball :: SEC : Football), Or at the very least, WVU fans have seen themselves in the Big 12 with elite and storied programs like Texas and Oklahoma. Among our assets, we boast our recent success on the field and our rabid fan base. I’ve watched enough Law and Order and John Grisham movies to know that if a subject is brought up by the prosecution, they must allow for rebuttal by the defense. If fans were trying to compare WVU with other elite schools for conference realignment, they can’t get upset when Holgorsen tries to compare schools as well for attendance. Unfortunately that’s when his poor choice of LSU bit him. More on that in a bit.
In the past 11 games (seven home games last year plus the four this season), WVU has averaged 55,555 fans per game, which translates to 92.6% of the 60,000 capacity. In three games, the attendance exceeded 60K (Maryland – 60,122; Marshall – 60,758; LSU – 62,056). In two games, the attendance dipped below 50K (Rutgers – 43,866; Bowling Green – 46,603). It’s worth noting that the
kickoff temperature against Rutgers last December was 30 degrees and of course the weather last weekend against Bowling Green was 44 and rainy.
So now we’re back to comparing WVU to other schools. As referenced on this blog by Sam, Baton Rouge is much larger than Morgantown and getting a stadium of 92,000 in Baton Rouge is actually proportionally like getting 39,000 in Morgantown. Sam also suggested that perhaps Mountaineer Field may just be too big given the size of Morgantown and the surrounding area. While I don’t agree too much with that statement (the Coliseum, on the other hand, is too damn big and now I’ll have to finish the post I started on that topic after Huggins ranted about attendance last season), it does bring up the metric of stadium size relative to population.
As mentioned earlier, a sizeable portion of WVU fans believe WVU should be in the SEC, or at the very least a strong Big 12, so I started with the 10 current teams in the Big 12, and the 12 current teams in the SEC (Missouri and Texas A&M fit in at least one of those two categories) and WVU. I looked up the capacity of the stadiums for all 23 teams as well as looked up the population within a 25 mile radius of the stadium.
Briefly about the 23 stadiums: the average stadium capacity is 72,298; Mountaineer Field is the 17
th largest stadium. If we joined the current SEC (plus Texas A&M and Missouri) WVU’s stadium would be 13
th out of 15 in capacity; if we joined the Big 12 minus the two aforementioned, WVU’s stadium would be 5
th out of 9.
Looking at population in the 25 mile radius to stadium size, Vanderbilt has the smallest stadium relative to population. Its stadium, which seats less than 40,000 has over 1 million people living within a 25 mile radius of it. To fill Vanderbilt’s stadium only 4 of every 100 people living within 25 miles of the stadium would need to show up to fill it. Ole Miss has the largest stadium for its population. With less than 100,000 people living within 25 miles of their stadium, 63 of every 100 people living within 25 miles of the stadium would need to attend to fill it to capacity. WVU falls nearly right in the middle (the 10
th smallest, the 13
th largest). With just over 300,000 people living within 25 miles of the stadium, 20 out of every 100 people would need to be in Mountaineer Field to fill it to capacity. With this metric in mind, it’s pretty clear why LSU and its 712,000 people living within 25 miles of their stadium is a poor analogy for Holgorsen to use. For LSU to fill their stadium, only 13 out of every 100 people would need to show up to fill it to its capacity of 92,542.
To see if Holgorsen’s argument of fan turnout holds any water, I searched for better comparisons between the Big 12 and SEC. I settled on Ole Miss and Mississippi State in the SEC, and Oklahoma State and Texas Tech in the Big 12 (the latter two of course being stops for Holgorsen within the past several years). To further seek out apples to apples comparisons, I decided to look at the attendance for the past four home games for each school against non AQ-conference opponents.
Texas Tech
Stadium Capacity – 60,454
Population within 25 miles of stadium – 291,820
Weber State – 55,083
Houston – 53,461
Texas State – 51,792
Nevada – 55,664
Average attendance – 54,000 (89.3% full)
Oklahoma State
Stadium Capacity – 60,218
Population within 25 miles of stadium – 100,163
Grambling State – 56,901
Troy – 48,820
Tulsa – 51,778
Louisiana Lafayette – 55,382
Average attendance – 53,220 (88.3% full)
Mississippi State
Stadium Capacity – 55,082
Population within 25 miles of stadium – 110,964
Memphis – 56,032
Alcorn State – 50,439
UAB – 56,423
Louisiana Tech – 55,116
Average attendance – 54,503 (98.9% full)
Ole Miss
Stadium Capacity – 60,580
Population within 25 miles of stadium – 95,986
Fresno State – 55,267
Louisiana Lafayette – 53,144*
BYU – 55,124
Southern Illinois – 58,504
Average attendance – 55,510 (91.6% full)
*
worth noting that the temperature was 41 degrees in Mississippi when this game kicked off
West Virginia
Stadium Capacity – 60,000
Population within 25 miles of stadium – 300,898
UNLV – 58,234
Marshall – 60,758
Norfolk State – 51,911
Bowling Green – 46,603
Average attendance – 53,557 (92.6% full)
If you ask any WVU fan how we compare to Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Mississippi State, and Mississippi, even the most objective fan would maintain that we’re superior to those programs given our recent success and would enter either of their conferences on a higher tier than them. Mississippi State—a team who we handily beat in 2006 and 2007–has a much more impressive track record filling its stadium against weak competition despite being in a market barely a third the size of WVU’s. Are WVU fans really not that much better at showing up to games than Texas Tech’s—a school with a comparable stadium and population? Don’t we want/claim to be elite? Isn’t that all Holgorsen said? And he’s getting grief for it? People claiming he doesn’t want to be here?
WVU fans want to be included in the SEC talks and in conference expansion. “Why not us?” is their claim. Their number one selling point is the fans, yet, while the fans stand out among the Big East, it’s clear that the reality of where WVU would rank in the SEC isn’t as clear or elite as fans perceive.
Alabama and Auburn would have been much better choices if Holgorsen was trying to demonstrate other schools who are able to fill their stadiums consistently. In fact, they’re able to fill stadiums larger than Mountaineer Field (Auburn - 87,451, Alabama - 101,821) and they’re doing this with populations only 2/3 the size of what’s in the 25 miles surrounding Morgantown! For Alabama to be at capacity, 52 of every 100 people living within 25 miles of the stadium would need to attend to fill it to capacity! Alabama and Auburn have of course won championships during the Obama administration so it’s a different level there, but it’s important that WVU fans know their place a little bit, too.
So was Holgorsen being a little ridiculous after chewing out fans for one bad game in awful conditions? Of course. But be honest, if it’s a sunshiney day, are we really packing that many more fans than we did against Norfolk State? Mississippi State exceeded capacity against Alcorn State, UAB, and Louisiana Tech. Ole Miss had 58,000 fans show up for Southern Illinois and with less than a third of the population as WVU. It appears that Holgorsen, like Mike Leach (
google ‘fat little girlfriends’) isn’t afraid to challenge his players in the media—Quinton Spain as a Holgorsen target comes to mind. Is that not just what we witnessed here? “You tell me you think you’re elite. Let me remind you of what other schools are doing.” The man just needed to chose his analogies more wisely.
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Resources
I used 2010 census data by zip code from ProximityOne. I looked up zip codes in a radius using MelissaData (but of course their population numbers use 2000 census data, so I had to do some excel manipulation by creating a small database form using a vertical lookup formula…like you care)
http://proximityone.com/cen2010_zcta_dp.htmhttp://www.melissadata.com/Lookups/zipradius.asp?afid=sbug&zipcode=26505&radius=25&submit=Search