The Galloping Hat Rack

Rooting interest: gosh dang, you’re beautiful, Dance With Fate!

A G1 polytrack winner and a handful of successful turf graded stakes winners answer the call for the inaugural Belmont Derby Invitational (I) (formerly the G1 Jamaica Handicap), which has succeeded in becoming deeper and more contentious than ever by attracting some interesting company from overseas. Can America defend its home turf on Independence Day weekend, or will a favored invader knock them all flat? Regardless, it should be a great race and a tough one to handicap, especially considering the likelihood of a good or soft turf surface with downpours in the July 4th forecast.

I’ve handicapped this race anticipating a “good” footing. Saturday will be bright, sunny, and summery all day leading up to the 4:30 post time which ought to help soak up any rainfall.

$1,250,000 Belmont Derby Invitational (I) - 3-Year-Olds. 1 ¼ miles on turf at Belmont Park. Post Time: Saturday, July 5 at 4:34pm EST.

[Post Position, Horse - Jockey, Trainer - Summary, Opinion in italics]

1) Toast of New York - Jamie Spencer, Jamie Osbourne - Unraced since his win in the Tapeta-bound UAE Derby (III) in Dubai, the son of Thewayyouare was hardly a factor in his lone turf start, which was a messy beginning as his maiden race. However since that bad first time out, Toast has been a relentless performer in his next 4 starts, winning three of them by daylight. All signs suggest Toast will do well on turf, and he gets a good spot on that sweet rail to position himself well early.

2) Sheldon - Junior Alvarado, James Toner - Listed as a longshot due to just having broken his maiden, the Purim colt has the advantage of having won at this distance on this same course and on “good” turf. I’m a big fan of his trainer, who totes a nice win percentage and is not known to throw his horses to the wolves. Consider for the exotics.

3) Bobby’s Kitten - Javier Castellano, Chad Brown - Bobby’s Kitten was one of the few juveniles last year to really grab my attention early, and he’s shown he’s still a very quality horse at three. A runaway winner in his only try at Belmont, the Kitten’s Joy colt owns some good early speed and has won over good turf. From a near-rail post, Bobby will likely shoot for the lead successfully, but can he hold it? Keep him in mind when making exotics plays.

4) Adelaide [IRE] - Colm O'Donoghue, Aidan O'Brien - There’s few better trainers in the world than Aidan O'Brien, who ships in this Group 2 winning son of top turf sire Galileo [IRE] in for a usurp. Lightly raced with just 4 total career starts, Adelaide has won 2 and placed twice and has shown strength over a soft or good going. Very strong win candidate considering his overall quality and ability.

5) Flamboyant [FR] - Joel Rosario, Patrick Gallagher - Never off the board with 3 wins in 8 starts, the Peer Gynt [JPN] colt makes his third U.S. start and was last seen running second by a head to Gala Award in the 9-furlong Pennine Ridge here at Belmont. Will extra ground make the difference? Flamboyant is not particularly appealing when compared side-by-side with talented invaders and U.S. horses who have already bested him. He is paired with top turf jockey Rosario and has been breezing pretty strongly.

6) Dance With Fate - Corey Nakatani, Peter Eurton - Big fan of this colt since I saw him on TV at the Breeders’ Cup. The Two Step Salsa colt won his lone turf start and is a G1 winner on the polytrack, suggesting grass may be his strongest surface. He has yet to start on a softened turf surface and is coming off a layoff since racing 6th in the Kentucky Derby. Definitely a very nice horse who sings on the grass, Dance is one of the most impressive American runners I’ve seen this year but will be combating some new obstacles. He looks good and could hit a good payday.

7) Gailo Chop - Julien Auge, Antoine De Watrigant - The gelded Deportivo [GB] has racked up quiet the reputation in France, rattling off 5 straight wins with no off-the-board finishes. However, he has yet to race above Group 3. 2-for-2 at the distance, in a “blind” picture slideshow of the Euro invaders I submitted myself to, Gailo Chop impressed me the most and has shown fleetness over good/soft turf and going the distance. He comes off a layoff since late April

8) Pornichet [FR] - Jose Ortiz, Gai Waterhouse - Owned and trained by Waterhouse, the Vespone [IRE] colt missed by less than 2 lengths last out in a Group 1 at Longchamp last out. Coming in off a layoff since mid-May, Waterhouse tacks on blinkers and has put a 6-furlong breeze into him earlier in the week at Belmont.  A horse who has mostly sprinted or miled at this stage, nothing about him really jumps out at me.

9) Mr Speaker - Jose Lezcano, Shug McGaughey - The Pulpit colt looked like the real deal earlier in the year when winning a loaded Dania Beach (III), whose runner-up Cabo Cat just snatched a very nice win last weekend in the Manila Stakes here at Belmont. Lezcano is one of the best turf jockeys, Shug wins at nearly 25% in graded stakes, and Mr Speaker was caught in tight last race. Excellent horse to use for value.

10) Global View - Gary Stevens, Tom Proctor - The Galileo [IRE] colt caught my attention upon besting the impressive Storming Inti a few starts back in the American Turf Stakes (II). Usually favored, he is considered a longer shot here after bouncing a bit in the Penn Mile, losing by nearly 3 lengths to Bobby’s Kitten. Global View should do better upon stretching out, and his connections have good turf stats across the board.

11) Gala Award - John Velazquez, Todd Pletcher - A Bernardini that can do turf, Gala Award is a Coolmore-owned colt who has shown preference for stalking the pace and proved that style successful last out, winning the 9-furlong Pennine Ridge over Flamboyant [FR]. A G3 winner on the turf, Gala Award gets a class test and will have to break well to secure his preferred spot behind the pace. Johnny V does however have a very high success rate landing in the top 2 in turf races.

Top 3 Picks in Order:

1) Gailo Chop

2) Adelaide [FR]

3) Dance With Fate

A lot of nice horses, a lot of layoffs, and there’s some built-in pace that ought to assure some of good finishes. Toast of New York is the morning line favorite and has tons of class, but I feel unsure about backing him given the pace, the distance, and the fact he hasn’t raced since March and ships over. Gailo Chop impressed me the most visually and can come off the pace, and class-wise, could have arguably raced well in his native land races had he not been a gelding and thus, ineligible. Dance With Fate is one of the best three-year-olds in the country; he’s risky coming onto good turf, but the race sets up for him and he’s blossomed off of similar layoffs.

Value Picks: Mr Speaker (12-1 or better) comes from a trainer who knows how to win big turf races. Dance With Fate (8-1 or better) may get ignored in the company of European horses. Sheldon (20-1 or better) is practically begging to be used in exotics.