The Galloping Hat Rack

I don’t know about you guys, but once the Arkansas (I) is over, I am pretty much done deciding who will be my Derby horse. But, some people persist and in this third week of April, we’ve got two late prep races: the Jerome (II) at Aqueduct and the Lexington Stakes (II) at Keeneland. Last year’s winners were Alternation, who I thought would progress nicely during the summer (he apparently waited to turn 4 for that to happen), and Derby Kitten, who predictably is turning into a nice turf horse. One is at a mile on dirt, the other is 1 1/16 miles on poly… Fusaichi Pegasus won the Jerome in 2000 while Charismatic won the Lexington in 1999 as the last horses to win and go on to win the big one. You decide their importance.

By far, it looks like the Lexington will have the best field of the two, with 11 horses ponying up to the gate for one more shot at graded earnings. Out of all the runners, the only horse who could likely make the Derby gate with a win is Castaway. Being that it’s Keeneland, I naturally have to favor turf/poly horses and with a good mix here, this will probably be an excellent betting race.

$200,000 Coolmore Lexington Stakes (III) - 3-Year-Olds. 1 1/16 miles on all-weather track at Keeneland. Post Time: Saturday, April 21 at 5:13pm EST

[Post Position, Horse - Jockey, Impost, Trainer - Summary, Opinion in italics]

1) Morgan’s Guerrilla - Julien Leparoux, 118 lbs, Mike Maker - A promising start for this Ghostzapper colt reached its height when he was a close second in the Illinois Derby (III) after enduring a wide trip. He goes blinkers off and picks up Leparoux, but this will be his first trip on Polytrack with some decent dirt works. Loves a good route distance and takes a nice little cutback here, but can he do Poly? He has one of Keeneland’s finest riders and last year’s winner Maker as connections.

2) Summer Front - Ramon Dominguez, 120 lbs, Christopher Clement - I really liked this War Front colt when he just slammed it home in the Dania Beach Stakes on grass. 3-for-3 in career starts with a dynamite turf pedigree, his biggest detractor is his long layoff: he hasn’t started as a three-year-old yet! Works at Payson have varied between unimpressive and sharp with stamina possibly being concentrated. Love this colt to death, but he’ll probably need a little room to grow and catch up.

3) Johannesbourbon - Garrett Gomez, 118 lbs, Kellyn Gorder - I’m calling this one out as the token “hot topic” colt for this race. By Johannesburg, he debuted at Turfway in a crazed romp over 6 ½ furlongs, flying home first by almost 10 lengths while sitting next to the quick pace. Sprinter? Maybe. Pacesetter? Likely. He’s an exciting gambit nonetheless while picking up Garrett Gomez.

4) Skyring - Jon Court, 118 lbs, D. Wayne Lukas - The English Channel trainee of Lukas broke his maiden last month at Oaklawn by a short and bumpy neck, coming back to Hawthorne to finish 7th in the Illinois Derby. Works on dirt haven’t been that impressive. A grass pedigree, but no poly or turf tests make me cast him long odds to do anything here.

5) Golden Ticket - Manoel Cruz, 118 lbs, Ken McPeek - Can a Speightstown go the distance? Maybe this one can. Golden Ticket was a fierce 2nd in the Tampa Bay (II) to the good Prospective after closing nicely into the stretch. He hasn’t done much on poly, but he’s been working on it leading up to the race which is bonus points in my book. With trust already established in McPeek as a trainer and in WinStar colors, a nice improving closer in this possibly-fast race is worth a long look.

6) Holiday Promise [pictured] - Junior Alvarado, 118 lbs, Todd Pletcher - The Harlan’s Holiday second-stringer in Pletcher’s keep proved himself worthy trying to catch Went the Day Well in the Spiral Stakes (III) at Turfway, managing to nail down 2nd. Works have been excellent, with a :47 move over Keeneland’s poly. Not an amazing horse, but he could be a horse for the course. Or, you know, he could disappoint me and keep being one of those horses who likes to be in the trifecta but not so much win anything.

7) Castaway - Shaun Bridgmohan, 120 lbs, Bob Baffert - Pretty much love this horse, a son of Street Sense who has been put in reserve by Baffert over at Santa Anita since his sleepy 7th in the Sunland Derby (III). Works have been good, but no poly experience. I’m not feeling a comeback for Castaway here; pretty sure he’s only here to give him a slim chance of getting those Derby earnings.

8) Hammers Terror - Robby Albarado, 118 lbs, Michael Stidham - An up-and-down ornament at Fair Grounds, the Artie Schiller colt ships up to Keeneland hoping to make some progress on those earnings. He was 4th to winner Icon Ike in the Black Gold Stakes and before that 6th in the Lecomte (III). He’s been working pretty well at Keeneland in the meantime, working long as well as short quips like a :47 and change. He has run on synthetic only once, when he broke his maiden at Keeneland over 7 furlongs over some decent horses. May or may not be a pacesetter, may or may not be someone to look at.

9) All Squared Away - Julio Garcia, 118 lbs, Wesley Ward - Frequenting the synthetic scene is this Bellamy Road gelding, last seen making up some ground late to finish 6th in the Spiral Stakes (III). Working steady over Keeneland. Usually one can peg a Wesley Ward trainee to storm right to the front, and while this one has in the past, he was at the back of the field in the Spiral and really didn’t do awful as he stayed focused throughout. We could see a strategy change here, but he’s got some serious horses to beat.

10) News Pending - Kent Desormeaux, 118 lbs, Dale Romans - A really nice Harlan’s Holiday colt, he was an emphatic 2nd to Union Rags in the Fountain of Youth (II) before turning in a clunker in the Florida Derby (I) where he only mustered a 7th after a pokey start. Breezing slow and steady at Gulfstream. I’m willing to throw out the Florida Derby, but the lack of synthetic/turf experience or promise bugs me. Another horse just here to sap some earnings.

11) Gold Megillah - John Velazquez, 118 lbs, Graham Motion - Never really got into this Purim colt, but the connections are good enough. He ran 3rd in the Rushaway, behind 2nd place finisher Gung Ho who went on to be 3rd in the Blue Grass (II) and winner Flashy Dresser won a stakes at Charles Town to stay undefeated. Had a :47 1/5 breeze over Keeneland, but it’s hard to say how he’ll do. He was drawing in down the stretch in the Rushaway so he could be on an improving cycle, but I wouldn’t consider him a giant threat without a more serious effort.

Predicted Trifecta: 1) Holiday Promise 2) Golden Ticket 3) Gold Megillah

Value Pick(s): Golden Ticket, Hammers Terror