The Galloping Hat Rack

I don’t know if I’ve ever had so much indecision about any horse before.

At first, I had reason to be skeptical of I’ll Have Another. It was the Robert B. Lewis (II), and there was a sizeable field of very interesting horses.

An okay horse who hasn’t raced in a while, O’Neill is testing him out as a refreshed three-year-old who will hopefully improve significantly

I favored Rousing Sermon, who failed to get a good trip managing third while favorite Liasion tripped in the stretch in a crowded cavalry charge. All alone up front was I’ll Have Another, who won pretty easily and even had the figures to show he was deserving. I threw the race out in the Weekend Stake Tip editorial published after that jumbled dash.

Ever the anomaly, it was such a head-scratcher trying to figure out how legitimate the Flower Alley colt was as a Derby contender. He had the cruising speed, but had yet to experience a really poor race traffic-wise, and was never really bothered in the Lewis. Maturity in addition to natural talent is something I look for in a real Derby horse, and I hadn’t seen the real deal just yet in IHA. The inexperienced jockey was a sweet touch to his backstory, and I loved Doug O'Neill’s Charlie Whittingham approach to training (which I hope will catch fire in future Derbies!), but still… it wasn’t enough. Leading up to the Santa Anita Derby (I), I favored Creative Cause, who had a gritty showing against Bodemeister in the San Felipe (II). But, as it would become his custom, IHA only insisted upon being best by the slightest of margins to collect that big G1 prep.

After the Santa Anita, it became clear to me that there was no real reason to doubt this horse anymore. He had blossomed into a great three-year-old and by the looks of that last prep race, could definitely make the 1 ¼ mile distance of the Kentucky Derby. But alas, so could 6 or 7 others with ease, and for no other reason than preferences I shelved him in my top 3 choices. I simply could not bet them all, and I favored immense talent and lightning closers in a race as big as the Derby.

Of course, that race was a doozy and an unpredictable one as favored horses endured poor trips, Bodemeister roared down the lane solo, and IHA was the only one who could catch him in time. It was an excellent ride and a well-deserved victory, but I felt Bodemeister was the best and most promising horse in the race that day. I picked him to wreak revenge in the Preakness, but then caught word on Friday that the rail– Bode’s favored spot– was dead and the colt would not have a shot. Unlike the Derby, IHA and Bode were all alone running down the stretch in a soft field of 11 runners, and IHA got his head in front just in time to nix a photo.

Barring a review of other Belmont races I plan to do, I’m giving IHA 50-50 odds to win the Belmont. Gutierrez is obviously a smart rider, the horse is geared to go long, and nobody has beaten them yet. The doubtful half isn’t so much me comparing the horse to history, but more so who he will face in the Belmont. Dullahan probably would have beaten him had the Derby been a bit longer, Union Rags had a horrible trip, and then we’ve got a fresh bundle of horses coming in who love a good upset. If anything can happen in the Derby, it’ll happen again in the Belmont.

So many Triple Crown hopefuls and individual jewel winners that were longshots in the beginning of the year lit up like fireworks for these three races, but it’s been a long time since one could conquer the odds and the challenges of winning all 3. It’s definitely not impossible as some have suggested– how close were Real Quiet, Charismatic, and Smarty Jones?– but the Belmont is the hardest of them all. In the end, it’s up to the horse, not so much the handicappers, and I haven’t picked a Belmont winner since 2007.

Good luck, IHA. I’ll be watching you the next 3 weeks.