Your best/worst plays?

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Reinier reminded me of this. While I can’t credit any one particular factor (LUCK has a lot to do with it!), I’ve lost as well as won plenty of really weird plays over the past year or two since I’ve started legitimately handicapping Thoroughbred horse races.

Major/memorable “win” plays, odds are approximated from the win return:

  • 36-1 Pool Play in the 2011 Stephen Foster (I) - This was an oh-my-stars result as the longest shot on the board. I liked Mission Impazible, who was the favorite and ultimate runner-up, but what can you say about a field with no clear front runner and a favorite who loves to place second or third? Pool Play was a force on Woodbine’s synthetic, and to me there was no excuse to ship him all the way down to a G1 at Churchill without a good reason.
  • 27-1 Tackleberry in the 2011 Sunshine Millions Classic - First Dude was favored, but the good Calder-based sprinter Tackleberry pretty much secured a heart bet from me. I remember thinking he could probably pull off a win if placed right, as he didn’t race much as a three-year-old due to issues and was just starting to race regularly as a four-year-old.
  • 26-1 Archarcharch in the 2011 Arkansas Derby (I) - I’d liked him since the Rebel Stakes, but sadly the beautiful Arch colt got no love heading into the big Arkansas Derby due to entries like The Factor aiming for the big win. I was so excited to see him get the win, and made my Derby pick following the race with runner-up Nehro.
  • 20-1 Brilliant Speed in 2011 Blue Grass Stakes (I) - Jetting off to a super upset, I liked Brilliant Speed’s distance pedigree in a field where anything could happen.
  • 13-1 Shotgun Gulch in the 2011 Vinery Madison (I) - Because who favors an Oklahoma-bred who hadn’t won lately in a sprint against horses like Evening Jewel? The win took place right before this gal started making a real name for herself before she was scratched and retired at the Breeders’ Cup. Her morning line was 20-1 when I originally picked her.
  • 15-1 Castaway in the 2012 Southwest Stakes (II) - A love for Street Sense and belief that Baffert had the slow developer ready in time backed this heart bet in a season where I struggled picking Triple Crown prep winners.
  • 15-1 Believe You Can in the 2012 Kentucky Oaks (I) - There were faster horses in the Oaks, but it was hard to turn away the promising Believe You Can after watching her battle at the Fair Grounds all spring. With Rosie and Larry Jones on her side, I had her down to win.
  • 13-1 Done Talking in the 2012 Illinois Derby (III) - Low-rent field headed by a unimpressive, developing favorite, I went with a face I knew I thought had a rough trip running in New York and was apt to do better this time.
  • 10-1 Hymn Book in the 2012 Donn Handicap - I had liked Hymn Book in the prior year’s Suburban, and for the life of me couldn’t figure out why he was 10-1 after a good showing in the Cigar Mile. I was so giddy to have had money on him to win with that wide sweeping stretch move.
  • 10-1 Camp Victory in the 2012 Triple Bend Handicap - He wasn’t weighted super heavy, had Joe Talamo aboard, and most importantly, had the “psychology” factor playing in his favor with his ailing trainer in the hospital. Camp Victory boasted some respectable speed figures, and while I don’t normally play very many sprints, the presence of the need-the-lead The Factor guaranteed some decent odds. It was great to see Camp Victory make a dramatic late move for the win.
  • 9-1 Sabercat in the 2011 Delta Jackpot- The selling point of this pick was actually the layout of the track. Sabercat would break from towards the outside coming down the awkward chute of Delta Downs and be able to conveniently lay off the speed before coming in late. I already loved the horse after seeing pictures of him training at Churchill Downs, and he already sported a nice prior win at Monmouth.

I think that’s the lot of them… I’ll have to brainstorm my worst plays next…