History ‘N Heart Bets
The handicapper must be fierce, trusting solely his or her past performance sheets, the race replays, and a year’s worth of sweat, tears, and leftover bankroll heading into the Breeders’ Cup World Championships. Christened as the race that pits the world’s best against each other, I pessimistically have to disagree: it’s a race against the world’s willing as some of the year’s biggest horses have passed on or retired ahead of November. Frankel, Black Caviar, Cirrus des Aigles, Snow Fairy, Camelot, virtually all of Australia, and just about every good three-year-old colt are excluded from what should have been one of the deepest Breeders’ Cups in recent history.
But one thing we can rest assured of: there are no guaranteed favorites and history has a way of being made at the Breeders’ Cup. Can Mike Smith beat Jerry Bailey’s record win count? Will Bob Baffert bring home a haul of wins after some bad luck in the Triple Crown? Can Point of Entry defeat the Euros? Can Wise Dan take out Excelebration [IRE]? Will Game On Dude be the first gelding to win the Classic? Can Amazombie be the second dual-Sprint winner next to Midnight Lute? Sometimes, it’s just enough to see one “heart bet” win it big.
- Brown Almighty in the Juvenile Turf - Before Fredericksburg came along (who unfortunately is not in this race), this guy was my go-to pony on the grass and as a beautiful son of Big Brown, I would not be sore if he wins. He’ll be at lukewarm odds with all the Euros and Chad Brown horses, so I’m optimistic.
- Animal Kingdom in the Mile - His odds are stacked high, but my memories recall his comeback in the spring where he was just all too giddy to pass on by the allowance field he encountered in Florida. The visual handicapper in me insists he has a chance as a horse who is just plum happy about his job, his ears always up running in the mornings and passing his workmates.
- Fortify in the Juvenile - He faced a tall order against experienced colts including a Pletcher student in his first time out, but paired with a belief the Distorted Humor colt could prevail without Lasix made seeing him win in-person all the better. He looks like he has a ways to go with his studies, which is why I’m not gung-ho about him beating Shanghai Bobby and Power Broker, but I’ll be looking out for him.
- Turbulent Descent in the F&M Sprint - She’s soured (as predicted) a bit after shipping to new trainer Todd Pletcher as one of the country’s best sprinters. I love Turby to death and would be so pleased to see her bounce back– it HAS been suggested she’s been working better, so there’s some hope.
- Jersey Town in the Dirt Mile - A heart pick and a gut pick after Hurricane Sandy trashed the Jersey shore. One of my favorite blaze faces was my choice to win both Cigar Miles of the past couple of years, and he’s bouncing back into form after winning the Kelso (II) in style. As a Barclay Tagg trainee, it would be wonderful to see the old school horseman win a big title.
- Awesome Feather in the Ladies’ Classic - She ran as a two-year-old at Calder back when I lived in Miami, so it was a given I had to root for her when she won the Juvenile Fillies impressively. Out of all the horses in these races, I think I can relate to her the most and there’s no horse here I’d rather see win.
- Atigun in the Marathon - Sweet, baby Atigun! I picked him as a longshot to win the Rebel Stakes (I) back in the spring, and while he still hasn’t won anything major yet, it was a joy seeing him at Belmont Park in June and so awesome to see him make it to the Breeders’ Cup.
- Pool Play in the Classic - He’s still not being given much of a chance by many, but I just enjoy Pool Play’s runs in the dirt. The best underdog back story of them all and my super longshot pick to win last year’s Stephen Foster, I’d be ecstatic to see this 7-year-old bounce back in a big way.
