Early Top 10 for Kentucky Derby 139

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I don’t really like making Derby rankings so early, but with the first of the big(ger) Triple Crown preps on the way I thought I would get a few words in in late December regarding the two-year-olds I saw that gave me good vibes. I’m picking these guys based mainly on personally-perceived aptitude/pedigree to go 10 furlongs as a 3-year-old, not so much what they’ve done so far. I haven’t gotten any funny feelings so far about anyone which makes this list harder.

10) Oxbow - What! A D. Wayne Lukas trainee? Yes I know! By Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Awesome Again and out of a full sister to another one in Tiznow, Oxbow finally seems to “get it” when it comes to racing and should be one to watch in the future. Shipped in for the CashCall, I thought he was handed too tough a trip to do well, never mind nab 4th after going 4 or 5-wide for most of the race on unfamiliar footing. He’ll need to keep improving, but I think he has what it takes.

9) Uncaptured - How good is this Lion Heart colt? At least fairly decent. He looked like a winner heading home first in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (II) and digs the dirt better than most of the Woodbine contingent that tries. He still has much to prove, but I’ve always been pretty dear to the Arch influence, whom he has as a grandsire.

8) Long River - Normally I’m suspect of super pedigrees, but then I remind myself of Royal Delta’s success. By A.P. Indy out of Awesome Again’s Breeders’ Cup Distaff champion Round Pond, Darley has given McLaughlin a potential superstar. He ran second to Delhomme in his second start and then edged by Bill Mott’s Mr Palmer to crack his maiden at Aqueduct over a mile and 70 yards, 7 lengths better than the rest of the field. Potential to do even better as a sophomore like both of his parents is huge.

7) Violence - I was surprised by how narrow and awkward this colt looked in the post parade for the CashCall (I), which he won by impressively overcoming the odds. Yes he was the favorite but I mean, how many Pletchers win after a ship against a field of 4 Baffert horses? (Yeah, they were NOT Baffert’s best) Pedigree-wise, I already made my joy in Violence obvious and he should amount to something on the Derby trail barring the Pletcher barn tendency to wear out their horses early.

6) Bern Identity - While I didn’t like him at all right away, the Sanford (II)-winning juvenile impressed me in the Delta Downs Jackpot (III) when cutting through traffic to miss the win by Goldencents. He should have won that race, but got a poor ride. He looks like he can get the distance already and has a fighting attitude.

5) Bold Dance - With my favorite young Mott trainee taking a break (Apex), the half brother to Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Saint Liam grabbed my attention and held on during a turf route at Gulfstream Park. The beautiful gray son of Pulpit sliced through traffic better than most horses with just one prior start do, and reeled off to a 4-length win. Bred very similarly to Bernardini being by Pulpit and out of a Quiet American daughter (who is something of a blue hen with several nice stakes winners), I am excited about seeing this one try dirt again after nearly falling down in his debut on it.

4) Dewey Square - It’s no secret I think Bernardini is a weak sire, but this Romans trainee I found to be very interesting. His trainer thinks he’s something special, which should be good by itself. Distance on top, speed on the bottom with the Forestry influence, he’s been looking good so far and I anticipate he’ll make a better 3-year-old.

3) Fury Kapcori - I had to look beyond this colt’s name before I liked him (as a bartender I poured Capori, this Robitussensque liqueur). By Classic sire Tiznow out of a daughter of Go For Gin, he does not have the traditional signs of a Derby winner trained by Hollendorfer, but no doubt this colt is only going to keep improving after his runner-up race in the CashCall (I) where he notched a 100 Equibase figure. He has shown he’s got speed, intelligence, and distance potential. I’d also be super excited if Talamo stayed with him…

2) Normandy Invasion - I love Tapits and I love Chad Brown and I love the way this colt narrowly lost the Remsen (II) at 9 furlongs. He made a long, ferocious drive from the back of the Aqueduct race to overcome pacesetter Delhomme and the more-experienced Overanalyze, who had to dig deep to nose out this improver. If this colt can overcome his early bird pedigree and Chad Brown shows he can do more than just special juveniles, he’s going to be tough.

1) Purple Egg - 3-for-3 so far, the Lion Heart colt hasn’t tried anything too steep yet but there’s plenty to like about the way he wraps up his races. Classically pedigreed by a Derby runner-up and out of a Prized daughter, the Jane Cibelli trainee can toss bullets without pressure in his workouts and likes to close from behind the leaders with impressive force; the ability to run the last quarter of a race in 23.75 seconds and the final eighth in just under 12 is undeniably promising.

Honorable Mentions: Elnaawi, Apex, Flashback, Little Distorted.

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