Alternative Handicapping: Reverse Analysis

Like I mentioned earlier this week, I really wanted to try some methods of handicapping that were outside the realm of my hyper-detailed analysis. I have been feeling “off” lately in making selections… I will often sense when I’m not “in the zone” like I was earlier in January, so I decided to try some unconventional, fun means of picking good horses in a race. For this post, I will be letting a computer pick any three numbers (horses’ post positions) out of a given field, and then try to justify why they might win in that race. Why is this worth doing? Well, how many times have you mentally skipped over a horse without truly setting down to analyze them, only to realize AFTER they win that you really shouldn’t have overlooked them? Horse racing isn’t completely independent of luck either!

Call it reverse analysis, because it’s pretty much the same only done backwards!

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Friday February 8 - Gulfstream Race #3 - $52,500 Maiden Special Weight - 1 mile on dirt - 3-year-old fillies.

Computer Picks (in order):

2) Montana Native

1) Rockatilla

4) Fascinante

Keeping in mind this is a one-turn dirt race on Gulfstream’s oval, this is a pretty open field as is because these are all maiden fillies who haven’t won a race yet. All three of the computer’s picks are on Lasix.

#2 Montana Native is part of the Ghostzapper Alliance and a daughter of Yes It’s True and out of a Quiet American. She has raced 4 times already– all good efforts– and while beaten, she did not race too far off from some top fillies in Emollient and Frege (on turf, her last start). Her past races put her at shorter distances, with one on turf and one on a sloppy/sealed going. She had a dynamite workout and I suspect Kenny McPeek has another up his sleeve. Bonus for the risk: she’s part of a coupled entry with #3 Proud Vixen.

#1 Rockatilla makes her first start on the fast rail as a daughter of Rock Hard Ten– who did not make his first start until he was 3 either!– and out of a stakes-winning daughter of Gone West. Owner/breeder Robert S. Evans comes from a racing family, seeing as his own father bred and owned Pleasant Colony. The most interesting dynamic here is her trainer Mark Frostad, who trained top turfers Chief Bearheart and Quiet Resolve, but has only raced 7 times this year so far. Current workouts look good.

#4 Fascinante is a first-time starter by Medaglia d'Oro and out of a daughter of Pulpit. The pedigree on her is interesting, particularly since her granddam was a pretty good runner who won stakes on turf. Fascinante is trained by Wesley Ward, who is more than capable of getting speed and is often very good working with young horses. The filly looks very good in her breezes to boot and the middle-inside post is a safe spot. On the downside, her jockey hasn’t done much so far this year.

One race is not enough… let’s do another one. How about a turf race?

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Friday February 8 - Fair Grounds Race #9 - $45,000 Maiden Special Weight - 1 1/16 mile on turf - 3-year-old fillies.

Computer Picks (in order):

6) Phonybooksnrecords

7) Rate Change

4) Dance Again

#6, gotta love that name and it’s a coupled entry with Sue Me Baby with only one of them possible to race seeing as they have the same jockey. Phonybooksnrecords is a daughter of *gasp* TAPIT! and is out of a black-type Yes It’s True (ran second to the one and only Octave!). So yes, obviously some good quality parentage here and Tapit has been hot lately. She has started twice already, and was a sharp closer last out in the stretch of a 1 mile & 70 yard dirt race here, losing by just 2 ½ despite a slow start and falling way behind early. In her debut on turf, she started going too late. Third time’s the charm? She could probably do it!

#7 Rate Change was the runner-up over Phonybooksnrecords in a prior race, though it was on dirt. Reason #1 to like this one immediately: Exchange Rate is her sire (very very talented progeny early in their careers) and she went wide in her last start on dirt so her odds will be much better here. This will be her 2nd turf start, with her first race being a mile on turf where she went 5-wide in the stretch and closed well to be 4th. Lots of potential with this one with Neil Howard of Summer Squall/Midway Road fame training and top rider Brian Hernandez Jr up.

#4 Dance Again is an Ontario-bred with some blue blood; she’s by Awesome Again and out of an A.P. Indy mare, who is out of G1 winner Dancethruthedawn. She has raced twice already with a 2nd going 7 furlongs on grass at Woodbine (winner Sky High Gal has gone on to win a small stakes) and was 3rd last out at a mile here on Fair Grounds’ grass, going wide into the first turn and managed to stay close for the show despite lacking the winning kick. Of concern: last rider Napravnik switches to second-favorite Alydorable. Dance Again is also the 5-2 morning line favorite here.

I’ll post again on Friday or Saturday with how this experiment went!

  1. behindthecounterinasmalltown said: lol I use random number generator to do 10 cent pick 6 bets sometimes.
  2. startinggate posted this