Big Weekend of Grass Racing Headlined by Arlington Million

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Tumblr’s Best Fantasy Cappers! It’s the Alabama Stakes we’re after!

Last year I admitted I had no idea what the heck I was getting myself into while handicapping the Arlington Million (I) for the second time… I wound up getting the boxed trifecta in my Top 3 Picks choices. This year offers a full field of good, international grass racers, among them last year’s winner and Breeders’ Cup Turf champion Little Mike, while the longer Sword Dancer (I) at Saratoga also sports a full field. It’s gonna be a great weekend for turf racing fans like myself!

Arlington has a great grass stakes card for Saturday and weather looks pretty near-spotless to insure a firm course.

$1 million Arlington Million (I) - 3-Year-Olds & Up. 1 ¼ miles on turf at Arlington Park. Post Time: Saturday, August 17 at 5:44pm CST.

[Post Position, Horse - Jockey, Trainer - Summary, Opinion in italics]

1) Real Solution - Alan Garcia, Chad Brown - A son of Kitten’s Joy with some good turf breeding and a heck of a turf trainer backing him up, the four-year-old raced well over in Rome before shipping in to the States, making two starts here finishing an okay 4th behind King Kreesa in a G3 and then an improved 3rd in the Manhattan (I) behind Point and Entry and Optimizer, well clear of the rest of the runners. Working superbly up to this race and clearly a G1 quality type of horse, I’m not a fan of the rail spot but he fires consistently enough to consider using underneath.

2) Finnegans Wake - Robby Albarado, Dale Romans - 4th in his two G1 starts this year, the Powerscourt [GB] colt had an off start last out in the Man o’ War (I), but was outgunned in the stretch anyway. I favored him to do something this year better than a 3rd in an allowance race. He may be simply outmatched here even in an ideal setup.

3) Hunter’s Light [IRE] - Ryan Moore, Saeed bin Suroor - Godolphi’s titan of Dubai, Hunter’s Light looked near unbeatable earlier in the year when he won a Group 2 and a Group 1 race preparing for the World Cup, in which he finished a dusted 7th. He has 5 wins in 12 starts on turf, including a G1 in Rome and a [distant] 2nd to Cirrus des Aigles. The globetrotter has no shipping issues to speak of, and is competitive on turf to make him a noteworthy invader.

4) Nates Mineshaft - E.T. Baird, Anne Smith - The speedy Mineshaft son looks to be back in shape after a layoff, controlling a sleepy pace to hold off allowance horse Trend in a mile-long turf test here at Arlington. A super horse on dirt, I don’t have the same opinion here on him even if he decides to take a nap as the possible pacesetter. He appears to lack enough class to blow off some of these contenders.

5) Temeraine - Eddie Castro, Tom Proctor - An Arch gelding? Aw yeah, instant points for that! The 4-year-old hasn’t done much in his career which includes claiming starts and some unimpressive stakes showings, but he did run well to be second last out in the Arlington Handicap (II), being beaten just a half length by Rahystrada after a slow start. Pace will aid him, but class is a question.

6) Side Glance [GB] - Jamie Spencer, Andrew Balding - A consistent runner on England’s hyper-competitive green, the Passing Glance [GB] stallion was 4th in the Dubai World Cup with no board hits this year but regularly ran 2nd and 3rd in past seasons. A candidate to keep hitting that board with good odds, use him underneath.

7) Indy Point [ARG] - Gary Stevens, Richard Mandella - Never off the board in 12 Argentinean starts, the Indygo Shiner son smashed in his U.S. debut to win the 1-mile Wickerrr at Del Mar in a good stalking move. Definitely a candidate to make some magic happen.

8) Mull of Killough [IRE] - Jamie O'Brien, Jane Chapple-Hyam - The 7-year-old gelding by Mull of Kintyre [IRE] hopes to extend his winning streak to 4 in the Million, although he has been unraced since April and is only victorious up to the G3 level, although he does have a keen win at 10 furlongs which makes him appealing. A G3 at Newmarket is basically like a G2 or G1 over here so I’m not opposed to using Killough here at least in exotics.

9) Guest of Honour [IRE] - Martin Harley, Marco Botti - Classically bred by Cape Cross [IRE] and out of a Royal Academy daughter, Guest missed the win in his last start by a length, as he often does: his past 5 races have resulted in 2 wins and 3 pretty short losses. It’s also vital to point out most starts have been over all-weather with just two turf starts resulting in one place performance, and that’s probably a key reason he is given long(ish) odds. He is given more ground here in the Million from his usual 8-9 furlongs, which shouldn’t bother him at all.

10) The Apache [SAF] - Christophe Soumillon, Michael de Kock - The Sheik’s Mogok son ships in after running modestly well at Dubai, where he was 2nd to Sajjhaa in the Dubai Duty Free (UAE-I) going 9 furlongs on Tapeta. Grass appears to be his stronger surface with consistently strong efforts that have landed him a Group 1 victory in the Champions Cup at Greyville and a 7-4-1 record on the green in 18 starts. Unraced since March, Apache will have to overcome a tough layoff, but has shown in the past he is tough on grass. Use in your exotics.

11) Little Mike - Joel Rosario, Dale Romans - The reigning Million/Breeders’ Cup Turf champion returns with plans to gun to the lead and hopefully hold up shop there with hot jock Rosario taking the reins for retired Ramon Dominguez. His 2 hapless starts in Dubai can be excused, and his 4th in the 1 3/8 mile United Nations (I)  can be attributed to warming back up after a bounce– the 3 that beat him are all good horses, with Hangover Kid logging a stakes win at Saratoga this week, and hey, this horse has a 50% win percentage in 24 starts! Joel is more than capable, Mike is once again being doubted in a recipe for success.

12) Rahystrada - Rosie Napravnik, Byron Hughes - At 9 years old, the Rahy gelding is one of the best turfers around with a 3rd in last year’s Million and is coming into this race with a win in the Arlington Handicap (III) prep, just as he did last year. Biggest concern here is a possibly wide trip and holding off other tough closers. He has plenty of back-class performance that could elevate him above others on a course we know he likes.

13) Grandeur [IRE] - William Buick, Jeremy Noseda - A tough cookie no matter where he is in the world, the son of Verglas [IRE] is one of the realest deals in this race with 6 wins and 4 places in 14 total starts. He is fresh off a runner-up in a York weight-for-age stakes which could have easily been a G1 test judging by its winner, so he should be good to go here. I was absolutely floored last year by Grandeur’s American races. A deep closer, the number of likely front-runners will undoubtedly help his bid as a highly-favored horse.

Top Picks in Order:

1) Grandeur [IRE]

2) Indy Point [ARG]

3) Rahystrada

Grandeur grabs me as the horse of the field to beat; I haven’t seen him race but the point of the matter is I CLEARLY REMEMBER how freakin’ dominant he was. No doubt he’ll be ready to roll here with a pace setup to boot. Indy Point took no prisoners in his Del Mar victory, and with Gary Stevens, I think he’s going to be knocking on the door of another possible win as long as Gary doesn’t fall off this time. Rahystrada, the titan of Arlington Park, won’t be too far off the pace should things slow down up ahead, and is still as classy as ever.

Value Pick: Little Mike sounds like he is getting overlooked this year once again… if we’re all wrong, he should be around 4-1. If Temeraine (10-1) is improving late in life, we’re all in trouble.

  1. startinggate posted this