iPhone will be on Verizon, but it is too late for Apple
Apple finally intends to go out on multiple carriers, although it is probably too late. The graphic above says it all.
Apple should have launched with multiple carriers at the very beginning instead of being concerned with short term benefits derived from their AT&T exclusive contract. If they did that, users would have grown accustomed to the iPhone’s interface. This would have meant a downgrade is user experience for anyone who tried a different interface (like say Android).
This would have meant a smartphone market that looked like this:
- Consumer market: Apple (90%), Android/Windows Mobile/RIMM (10%)
- Business market: RIMM (60% and declining), Apple (30% and growing), Everyone else (10%)
Without Verizon’s support and advertising muscle (stemming from the fact that they had to support Droid by default), Droid would have become a second tier player like Windows Mobile.
Instead, Apple is facing a situation where even if they manage to maintain a lead, they would still be splitting the smart phone market.
Instead it now looks like this:
- Consumer market: Apple (50%), Android (40%), Windows Mobile/RIMM (10%)
- Business market: RIMM with a clear advantage (due to legacy programs and switching costs) but declining, everyone else evenly split
If Apple had went with multiple carriers from the start, the total number of users for Android based phones would have been lower. This would have meant that it wouldn’t have been economically intelligent for developers to work on Android apps.
If you are a developer, imagine facing this consumer based market:
- Apple 90%
- Everyone else 10%
Why would anyone have their team of developers and engineers work on anything except for Apple? Technology is typically a winner take all environment. With that noted, I imagine most developers would have abandoned Android application development as a lost cause. Android would have been relegated to serving as a niche platform for techies (like Linux). However, it wouldn’t have the critical mass to justify starting a new venture for. Apple’s iOS would have been analogous Windows from mid 80’s to up to 2010 with a strong, entrenched and dominant position. Android would have been a more clumsy version of Linux for techies, but not for the mass market. RIMM would be the equivalent to Apple except it would have had a reliable following attributed to corporate use propping them up (just like the way creative professionals kept Apple propped up in the 90’s and early 2000’s).
Alas, it’s too late Apple. Even if you stop Android’s run, you still face a split market, instead of one of utter dominance.