me & her

Numbers do matter: iPhone vs. Android vs. Blackberry

John Gruber:

Put another way: Is it a bigger problem that RIM’s App World has only 9,000 apps, or, that the typical quality and polish of their apps is beneath that of the apps in Apple’s App Store? A simple app count is nice and comfortable because it’s not subjective (like my statement in the previous sentence about quality and polish), but it’s potentially misleading.

I’m not sure I fully agree. At this stage, we’re talking about the difference between hundreds of thousands and not even tens of thousands. I think if you’re only looking at Android and the iPhone, Gruber is correct: Numbers aren’t particularly useful, and it becomes important to talk about which developers are making popular and quality apps for which platform.

The general consensus on that front is that the iPhone OS wins out, for now, whether it’s pitted against Android or Blackberry. 

On the other hand, if someone is reading Walt Mossberg because they’re making a platform decision, and they see that Blackberry is limited to 9,000 apps when the next closest competitor is climbing quickly at around 80,000 apps and the top competitor is fast approaching 250,000 apps–there’s not much more you need to know, is there?

I would note that when discussing apps, you’re really talking about average consumers and the lifestyle crowd: Those who will use their smartphone for a little bit of everything. I’m not arguing enterprise, here.

I think any thoughtful person would conclude that developers are going to focus on platforms and app markets with strong and fast growth potential.

With that said, the one thing I would add to a discussion of numbers is growth over time: It’s embarrassing enough that RIM is so ridiculously far behind, it’s far worse when both Apple and Google started from behind. Given RIM’s superstar status, this is akin to Usain Bolt losing the 200 m after being allowed a generous head start.

Any way you slice it, the iPhone app store is approaching 250,000 apps after only a couple years and RIM had many more than that to eke out 9000. How can that be anything but horrible news for RIM?

Ultimately, I don’t think this is much like the Windows/Mac OS fight, another easy fallback for a lot of people: The mobile app arena involves three strong competitors, with a fourth (Windows Phone 7) waiting to jump out of the gate. (Not to mention Palm. Heheh.) I don’t think RIM has the luxury that Apple had when it was the only real contender to Windows. (Not to mention Linux. Heheh.)

The mobile market, to me, is far more exciting than the Windows vs. Mac OS debate, because there’s far more viable competition, and the battle is far from decided in any one company’s favor. We may never see a clear victor.

With that said, I doubt Blackberry will ever compete on apps and the raw numbers are  enough to come to that conclusion. What do I care if RIM has 9000 high quality apps if they’re never going to have many more than that? Mobile’s moving too fast to hitch a ride on a company that is spinning its wheels.