Primary Colors (Ark., Fla. Editions)

Say you’re a political junkie who’s been living in a cave, under a rock, beneath the sea. Someone told you it was prime real estate. I understand. You’ve managed to regain your interest in politics and want to know what the hot primary races are - because, it’s not like there’s cable in that cave, which is buried beneath the rock located under the sea.

Arkansas Senate Race - This race continues to become more interesting as time wears on. Bill Halter is challenging Blanche Lincoln from her left, and with the support of the base of the national Democratic party.

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Lincoln (pictured above with John Podesta) managed to enrage labor unions with her refusal to support health care reform, anger environmentalists by joining GOP efforts to overturn EPA regulations on greenhouse gasses and seriously annoyed the Arkansas NAACP with her refusal to recommend African American judges from Arkansas to the Federal Bench. If you’re running in a Democratic primary, even in Arkansas, getting those groups mad at you is a great way to ensure a challenge from your base. And, Bill Halter is giving her a run for her money.

From the Tolbert Report:

In the Democratic Primary, we are moving the rating from “Leans Lincoln” to “Toss Up.” Two major developments have contributed to this ratings change. First, with a third candidate D.C. Morrison pulling in support of around ten percent, it is more than likely that this race will go to a run off election in June. In order to avoid this, Sen. Blanche Lincoln or LG Bill Halter would have to win by a wider margin than Morrison receives in the May primary. And if this election does in fact go to a June runoff, it is anyone’s to win but probably favors Halter.

Second, the debate performance of Halter over the weekend along with his overall campaign strategy is likely to cause the race to continue to narrow going into the primary only three weeks away. With as many as one in four voters undecided in the latest poll, an effective message this late in the race matters. If Halter continues to have as good a performance over these last three weeks as he has had this past week, it is quite possible he will catch her by May 18.

Read more: http://tolbertreport.com/2010/04/27/arelectionline-ratings-change-arsen-democrat-primary-toss-up/

One more fun fact - If neither Lincoln or Halter clear 50% in the upcoming primary, which isn’t a given because of a third candidate who’s drawing about 10% of the vote, there will be a runoff in early June.

Florida Senate Race - It’s hard to believe that less than six months ago, Charlie Christ was almost 50 points ahead of Marco Rubio. Now he’s almost 30 points behind Rubio in the upcoming GOP primary. Christ has been buffeted by the challenges many moderate Republicans have faced over the past few years - an increasingly conservative base in the GOP and an inability to connect with the needs of those more conservative voters.

A stiff primary challenge was one of the reasons Arlen Specter left the GOP and became a Democratic Senator. Anyways - back to Florida, where rumors out of Christ’s camp seem to indicate that Christ will fire paperwork to run as an independent in the next couple of weeks.

From First Read, NBC’s Political Newsletter (have I said how much I heart Chuck Todd?)

Tags: politics