NBC News/WSJ Poll: 62 percent say Trump isn’t telling the truth in Russia probe

More Americans want Democrats — not Trump — in charge of setting policy, a new national NBC News/WSJ poll finds.

www.nbcnews.com

WASHINGTON — Six in 10 Americans say President Donald Trump has been untruthful about the investigation into Russia’s interference in the 2016 presidential campaign, while half of the country says the investigation has given them doubts about Trump’s presidency, according to a new national NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

The survey, conducted a month after the results of November’s midterm elections, also finds more Americans want congressional Democrats — rather than Trump or congressional Republicans — to take the lead role in setting policy for the country.

And just 10 percent of respondents say that the president has gotten the message for a change in direction from the midterms — when the GOP lost control of the U.S. House of Representatives but kept its majority in the U.S. Senate — and that he’s making the necessary adjustments.

“The dam has not burst on Donald Trump,” said Democratic pollster Peter Hart, whose firm conducted this survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff. “But this survey suggests all the structural cracks [that exist] in the dam.”

The NBC/WSJ poll — conducted Dec. 9-12 — comes after new developments in the Russia probe and other investigations involving the president, including evidence and allegations that:

• Trump and his team were offered “synergy” with the Russian government.
• Trump directed an illegal campaign-finance scheme to make payments covering up two alleged affairs in the last days of the 2016 campaign.
• Former Trump campaign chair Paul Manafort continued to communicate with Trump administration officials well after his indictment.
• Former Trump lawyer/fixer Michael Cohen was sentenced to prison for three years.

In a recent interview with Fox News, Trump denied directing Cohen to make the payments covering up the alleged affairs.

“I never directed him to do anything wrong,” Trump said. “Whatever he did he did on his own. He’s a lawyer. A lawyer who represents a client is supposed to do the right thing that’s why you pay them a lot of money.”

Asked in the poll if Trump has been honest and truthful when it comes to the investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 campaign and related matters, 62 percent of all adults say they disagree. That includes 94 percent of Democrats, 64 percent of independents and a quarter (24 percent) of Republicans.

By contrast, 34 percent believe Trump has been honest and truthful about the investigation, including 70 percent of Republicans, 29 percent of independents and just 5 percent of Democrats.

These numbers are a slight shift from August, when 38 percent of registered voters agreed Trump has been honest and truthful about the investigation, and 56 percent disagreed.

“Last week’s Cohen and Manafort news clearly hurt the president — no dramatic movement to be sure, but incremental erosion in President Trump’s credibility,” said Democrat pollster Fred Yang of Hart Research Associates.

Also in the poll, a combined 50 percent of Americans say the Russia investigation — led by special counsel Robert Mueller — has given them “major,” “fairly major” or “just some” doubts about Trump’s presidency, versus 44 percent who say it hasn’t given them more doubts.

McInturff, the GOP pollster, says that the 44 percent without doubts is a “powerful reminder about the status of his political base.”

What’s more, a plurality of respondents — 46 percent — say the convictions and guilty pleas of members of Trump’s 2016 campaign suggest potential wrongdoing by the president, compared with 23 percent who believe the wrongdoing is limited only to those individuals; 28 percent don’t know enough to say.

And asked if Mueller’s investigation should continue, 45 percent believe it should, while 34 percent think it should come to an end — essentially unchanged from August’s NBC/WSJ poll.

#IACaucus polling: Biden — followed by Bernie, then Beto — leads the first Iowa 2020 caucus poll

Likely Democratic caucusgoers are looking for a candidate with experience and electability.

www.vox.com|Rachel Withers

Former Vice President Joe Biden is the preferred candidate of nearly one third of some of the most influential voters in the 2020 Democratic primary: Iowa Democrats who are definitely or probably going to attend the February caucus.

According to a Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom poll — the first of the 2020 primary season — Joe Biden is the top choice for 32 percent of Iowa Democrats. Sen. Bernie Sanders comes in second with 19 percent, while outgoing Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke took third with 11 percent. No other candidate broke double digits, although Sen. Elizabeth Warren picked up 8 percent and Sen. Kamala Harris 5 percent (“not sure” received 6 percent). All this could easily change, however: an early 2015 poll had Sanders as the top choice of only 5 percent of likely 2016 caucus-goers — he went on to win 49.59 percent of the vote.

Taking into account second choices, Biden was the first or second pick of 50 percent of respondents, while only 8 percent said they could “never” support him for president, the lowest number on the list. While none of the top preference-getters have actually announced their nominations, Biden is thinking about it, and says he plans to decide in the next two months. Sanders reportedly told Warren in a recent meeting that he is likely to run, according to the New York Times.

Iowa caucus-goers — partly by virtue of being the first actual voters of any US state to say who they want to be president — appear to be “hugely important” in determining who the major parties’ presidential nominees will be.

And many of these “hugely important” voters are looking for a candidate with experience and electability: Of the respondents, 49 percent say the right candidate to take on President Donald Trump should be a “seasoned political hand” (36 percent say “newcomer,” while 15 percent are unsure). More than half say it is more important that the candidate has a strong chance of defeating Trump than that they share their positions on major issues (40 percent said the reverse).

This preference for an old hand is reflected in the top two picks, with Biden and Sanders each having been in politics for decades, and both having run for the Democratic nomination before (Biden in 1988 and 2008 and Sanders in 2016). Both men are in their late seventies, and will 77 and 79 respectively by the time the 2020 presidential election rolls around.

Though she wasn’t included on the list, respondents were asked whether adding former First Lady Michelle Obama to the list would add or detract from the race: 76 percent said add. When asked the same question of Hillary Clinton and Oprah Winfrey, respondents said detract, at a rate of 72 and 55 percent respectively.

The poll of 455 definite or probable Democratic caucus-goers was conducted by West Des Moines-based Selzer & Company from December 10 to 13. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.