Nuclear early warning systems
I thought I was paranoid about the risk of accidental nuclear war but yesterday I started thinking about nuclear early warning systems and I don’t think I knew what paranoia truly feels like until now.
You see, nuclear early warning systems do not detect nuclear weapons. They detect rockets. This makes possible events like the 1995 Norwegian rocket incident, where Russia briefly mistook a rocket with a scientific payload for a nuclear weapon, because while the launch was announced in advance, someone failed to tell the radar technicians.
I’ve known about the Norwegian rocket incident for awhile, but I never thought much about what it meant, because it didn’t fit into the rubric I had in my head for nuclear close calls. The incident didn’t involve a blockade, a border skirmish, a military exercise, or an equipment malfunction. Tensions between the US and Russia were low, and the equipment worked perfectly. The equipment was just incapable of telling what kind of payload the rocket had.
There are other problems of this type. For example, I’ve read that some people are very worried about Chinese anti-ship ballistic missiles, because if they’re ever actually used, how will the United States know the missiles are conventional and not nuclear before they hit? Similarly, there are concerns that if US anti-ballistic missile defenses were actually used in a war against North Korea, Russia might mistake it for a nuclear attack. I don’t know if similar concerns apply to anti-satellite weapons—maybe they’d always be launched on a different trajectory than nuclear ballistic missiles?
I assume there are solutions to this problem, but I'm not sure what they are. Radio transponders only work if everyone trusts everyone not to fake the transponder codes, and might be less effective if a missile is moving much faster than any aircraft. Some people seem to think the solution is “everyone agrees to never do anything that could be mistaken for a nuclear launch”, but the problem is weird enough that getting everyone to stick to the plan could be hard.