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FRSE

@fr-stockexchange / fr-stockexchange.tumblr.com

Flight Rising Stock Exchange blog run by BatCrooks #11316 aka flightdescending View the Stock Market FRSE on Flight Rising FRSE on Twitter Did I miss an item you think I should be tracking? Do you just have a question? Let the Invisible Hand know!
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nerdfr

FR BLOGS TO FOLLOW

I’ve seen a few people post these recommendation lists lately, and I really wanted to do one too! I don’t really follow that many FR blogs because I’m in the tag so often, but these people are really great. I’m dividing them into categories for ~convenience~ 

Notable personality FR blogs

Chatty/live-blogging people I particularly like :- )

Artists

Resource FR blogs

There’s a few more but I haven’t really been following them long enough to confidently recommend them to everyone else. These people are fun and most are pretty active in the community, follow them. <3

Hello new followers... sorry to say, this blog has been inactive for a few months. The old data is still available (and still interesting to look over!) but new data won't be coming in any time soon.

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Lately everyone’s been talking about how they can’t get their dragons to sell. It occurred to me that I’d never seen anyone take stock of how many dragons we as a userbase have been hatching daily, so I thought I’d take some data to do some science. For a week, at roughly the same time each day, I went and found the newest dragon born and wrote down its number. I know I like graphs, so here’s a graph.

Apparently we pump out an average of 24891 dragons a day! Whoa!

A few months ago there was a dominance battle where Aequorin told us something like 30k dragons were exalted in one night. I have no idea how many are exalted daily when there isn’t a huge dom push going on, but I’m betting it’s nowhere close to 25k.

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fishrising
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not-a-lizard

This situation is really pretty interesting…

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microdragons

I’ve been reading the whole conversation on this — and I wasn’t sure where in it to reply so going back to POST NUMERO UNO.

Okay. So. The most baffling thing about this is why ARE gem prices being allowed to go down? Why are gem-sinks not being introduced?

From a FR Is First And Foremost A Business a high gem-to-treasure ratio is best for the developers. The harder gems are to obtain in terms of work-on-site the more likely people are to pay cash money for them.

This is yet another example of FR Design Philosophy Mystifies Me. I realize that there is a sweet spot to hit - if gem prices go up infinitely then you’ll start losing players to I Can’t Afford Anything attrition. But, I’m not sure I know the sweet spot the devs are aiming for. I felt like 500 was… a good point in terms of attainability of gems. Difficult enough that it would encourage some players to spend money on gems while still being affordable if you wanted to put in some time.

I’d like to hear some about the design philosophy in terms of balancing gem prices, but I’m afraid of asking because we’d probably just get some “It’s a free market, players determine the conversion rate blah blah blah” BS.

And it is BS. Because while players might write up the conversion rate, the devs are controlling the demand AND the supply of both treasure and gems. Of all the markets in the game they can control the easiest one for them to control is the ratio of gems to treasure in game.

Which brings me to my second FR Design Philosophy Is Mystifying To Me point. Okay so. We can all agree that in terms of the developers… FR is a business right? They are doing this for profit. To make money. Hopefully to one day be their full time jobs. 

There are two sources of income for the site. Ads and gems. We can alllll agree on this, right?

A high treasure to gem ratio (but not TOO high) is good for the site in terms of pushing players to buy gems and keep the site funded, right?

Why then. WHY are there way more treasure sinks in the game than gem sinks?

Outside of the gem marketplace/the AH the only gem sink I can think of is the apparel slots — which, ultimately, are not a huge gem sink. Outside of the treasure marketplace/the AH you have the crippling treasure sink that is lair expansions PLUS the not-too-cheap nest expansions.

It’d be nice to see a bigger gem sink in the game. Maybe let you pay for lair expansions in treasure OR gems.

Of course, the other way to control the ratio (besides adding more gem sinks) is to add more treasure production. Which like, everybody has been asking for forever because grinding the games to hit cap after a few days becomes as pleasurable as pulling out your fingernails one by one. 

(IMO game payout on all games should be 1000t per minute at an average play speed because that is what you can make by clicking in random circles on shock switch. Until all games have a payout at that level there is no point to grinding any of them BUT shock switch.)

Anyway. I realize that a lot of the questions I have about development probably amount to ‘the developers want to eventually do something about the weird design BUT there is only so much two programmers can do in a day’. But I feel like this is actually one the art-team could handle? Or wouldn’t consume much time? 

I kinda ultimately suspect this is just another biproduct of the design philosophy we’ve seen of ‘we’re scared to change our controls to the economy in any way ever because things might get worse than they are now AND the site is ultimately meant to run with open registration AND we can sit and claim we’re running a free market (author’s note: lolololololol) and people will buy it because they’ll apply their ideas about scarcity based actual world economies to a totally controlled artificial-scarcity virtual economy”.

Biggest gem sink I can think of that this response didn’t account for is Accent and Skin blueprints? A huge chunk of Flight Rising’s player base are artists themselves.

It’ll be interesting if they do opt to shake up the economy when open registration hits.

Ah! I forgot those. But still, I think compared to the treasure sinks (primarily the lair expansions) those consume gems far more slowly.

Honestly, I’d like to see some additional “small” gem sinks to help clean out the ‘residual’ gems that build up (and ultimately lead to a lot of gems). Like a ‘bond all’ familiars button that costs like 5 gems (roughly 5 cents) or whatever to push*. There have been other small quality-of-life and cosmetic improvements that have been suggested elsewhere in the conversation (eg. forum vistas, special BBcode, etc). Something to stop people from selling gems in small quantities. Competing with people selling <500 gems for low “quick-sale” prices is one of the things that leads to chronic gem undercutting.

There’s a ton of small treasure sinks (items <10k) that are sold en masse to help nickle-n-dime away treasure that the big sinks don’t mop up.  There is nothing in that gem range, remotely, on the gem marketplace. I think the cheapeast gem items (excluding the discounts from bundles) are at least 100g? which is what… 30000 t at the current conversion rate? Which — at least right now — feels like a relatively low rate?

The small gem sinks that exist now are not something people would be using daily, or even weekly. You basically just buy up all your apparel slots and then you might buy accents for dragons… But even then there’s a hard cap on how many gems you can spend on that assuming one accent per dragon at 125 accents. 

I’d assume that without the festival accents most players have, at most, 2-3 accents purchased at a price point of 500 gems per accent. (There are of course the Accents Georgs out there, but they are outliers and should not be counted. :P). 

I think they should add in at least one big gem sink, and then a few small HIGHLY repetitive gem sinks to help prevent gem floods in the economy. Basically, make it really very difficult to resist the temptation of cheap, quality of life improvers to help prevent people from stockpiling large amounts of gems (thus keeping them potentially in the economy. The harder gems are to save up, because of the various quality of life temptations, the more likely players are to just go buy the amount of gems they need for ‘big gem sink’ because they’re blowing all of their here-and-there gems on small repetitive quality-of-life/cosmetic gem sinks.

—-

* For the record I know they’ve said they don’t plan to do a ‘bond all’ familiars button. They haven’t elaborated on why, but I assume it’s because they want to get the money that comes from visiting a bunch of dragon profiles. If they could get money instead from the gem sales of people loading up on gems for fast familiar bonding I think they MIGHT be willing to do it? Maybe? Am I vastly underestimating how much they might sell individual impressions for with ads?

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fishrising
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not-a-lizard

This situation is really pretty interesting…

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microdragons

I’ve been reading the whole conversation on this — and I wasn’t sure where in it to reply so going back to POST NUMERO UNO.

Okay. So. The most baffling thing about this is why ARE gem prices being allowed to go down? Why are gem-sinks not being introduced?

From a FR Is First And Foremost A Business a high gem-to-treasure ratio is best for the developers. The harder gems are to obtain in terms of work-on-site the more likely people are to pay cash money for them.

This is yet another example of FR Design Philosophy Mystifies Me. I realize that there is a sweet spot to hit - if gem prices go up infinitely then you’ll start losing players to I Can’t Afford Anything attrition. But, I’m not sure I know the sweet spot the devs are aiming for. I felt like 500 was… a good point in terms of attainability of gems. Difficult enough that it would encourage some players to spend money on gems while still being affordable if you wanted to put in some time.

I’d like to hear some about the design philosophy in terms of balancing gem prices, but I’m afraid of asking because we’d probably just get some “It’s a free market, players determine the conversion rate blah blah blah” BS.

And it is BS. Because while players might write up the conversion rate, the devs are controlling the demand AND the supply of both treasure and gems. Of all the markets in the game they can control the easiest one for them to control is the ratio of gems to treasure in game.

Which brings me to my second FR Design Philosophy Is Mystifying To Me point. Okay so. We can all agree that in terms of the developers… FR is a business right? They are doing this for profit. To make money. Hopefully to one day be their full time jobs. 

There are two sources of income for the site. Ads and gems. We can alllll agree on this, right?

A high treasure to gem ratio (but not TOO high) is good for the site in terms of pushing players to buy gems and keep the site funded, right?

Why then. WHY are there way more treasure sinks in the game than gem sinks?

Outside of the gem marketplace/the AH the only gem sink I can think of is the apparel slots — which, ultimately, are not a huge gem sink. Outside of the treasure marketplace/the AH you have the crippling treasure sink that is lair expansions PLUS the not-too-cheap nest expansions.

It’d be nice to see a bigger gem sink in the game. Maybe let you pay for lair expansions in treasure OR gems.

Of course, the other way to control the ratio (besides adding more gem sinks) is to add more treasure production. Which like, everybody has been asking for forever because grinding the games to hit cap after a few days becomes as pleasurable as pulling out your fingernails one by one. 

(IMO game payout on all games should be 1000t per minute at an average play speed because that is what you can make by clicking in random circles on shock switch. Until all games have a payout at that level there is no point to grinding any of them BUT shock switch.)

Anyway. I realize that a lot of the questions I have about development probably amount to ‘the developers want to eventually do something about the weird design BUT there is only so much two programmers can do in a day’. But I feel like this is actually one the art-team could handle? Or wouldn’t consume much time? 

I kinda ultimately suspect this is just another biproduct of the design philosophy we’ve seen of ‘we’re scared to change our controls to the economy in any way ever because things might get worse than they are now AND the site is ultimately meant to run with open registration AND we can sit and claim we’re running a free market (author’s note: lolololololol) and people will buy it because they’ll apply their ideas about scarcity based actual world economies to a totally controlled artificial-scarcity virtual economy”.

This is one of the biggest bothers I have with FR. The economy of the game and a lot of the development that players see or should see is counter productive to running a successful game. Right now FR is run like a bad facebook game, and it really could be a great game. They should be pushing for new genes every 2-3 months, new breeds every 6-9 months, and new apparel sets each month rather than at random as it is now. Yes this will likely put a little more stain on the artists, but if they are popping out a new new set each month(3 colors treasure, 2 swipp’s/coli, 1-2 gems only), they will keep good even treasure and gems sync and further encourage players to buy gems. On top of this, adding things such as an option for players to op-out of ads for gems, new forum vistas(which no one has seen one since the kickstarter), Scroll bundles(buy x# of treasure scrolls for gems, buy themed sets such as tiger/stripes), or any number of other mostly cosmetic features(more scatter scrolls, site themes, enhanced BBCode). Basically a lot of easy to add stuff that could enhance the player’s quality of life right now. Because I can guarantee the whole site being locked down and a lot of potential players basically being forced to miss out on events because of it isn’t gonna bring in the gems in the end. It’s gonna piss those players off and they are going to lose interest eventually.

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reblogged
Avatar
fishrising
Avatar
not-a-lizard

This situation is really pretty interesting…

Avatar
microdragons

I’ve been reading the whole conversation on this — and I wasn’t sure where in it to reply so going back to POST NUMERO UNO.

Okay. So. The most baffling thing about this is why ARE gem prices being allowed to go down? Why are gem-sinks not being introduced?

From a FR Is First And Foremost A Business a high gem-to-treasure ratio is best for the developers. The harder gems are to obtain in terms of work-on-site the more likely people are to pay cash money for them.

This is yet another example of FR Design Philosophy Mystifies Me. I realize that there is a sweet spot to hit - if gem prices go up infinitely then you’ll start losing players to I Can’t Afford Anything attrition. But, I’m not sure I know the sweet spot the devs are aiming for. I felt like 500 was… a good point in terms of attainability of gems. Difficult enough that it would encourage some players to spend money on gems while still being affordable if you wanted to put in some time.

I’d like to hear some about the design philosophy in terms of balancing gem prices, but I’m afraid of asking because we’d probably just get some “It’s a free market, players determine the conversion rate blah blah blah” BS.

And it is BS. Because while players might write up the conversion rate, the devs are controlling the demand AND the supply of both treasure and gems. Of all the markets in the game they can control the easiest one for them to control is the ratio of gems to treasure in game.

Which brings me to my second FR Design Philosophy Is Mystifying To Me point. Okay so. We can all agree that in terms of the developers… FR is a business right? They are doing this for profit. To make money. Hopefully to one day be their full time jobs. 

There are two sources of income for the site. Ads and gems. We can alllll agree on this, right?

A high treasure to gem ratio (but not TOO high) is good for the site in terms of pushing players to buy gems and keep the site funded, right?

Why then. WHY are there way more treasure sinks in the game than gem sinks?

Outside of the gem marketplace/the AH the only gem sink I can think of is the apparel slots — which, ultimately, are not a huge gem sink. Outside of the treasure marketplace/the AH you have the crippling treasure sink that is lair expansions PLUS the not-too-cheap nest expansions.

It’d be nice to see a bigger gem sink in the game. Maybe let you pay for lair expansions in treasure OR gems.

Of course, the other way to control the ratio (besides adding more gem sinks) is to add more treasure production. Which like, everybody has been asking for forever because grinding the games to hit cap after a few days becomes as pleasurable as pulling out your fingernails one by one. 

(IMO game payout on all games should be 1000t per minute at an average play speed because that is what you can make by clicking in random circles on shock switch. Until all games have a payout at that level there is no point to grinding any of them BUT shock switch.)

Anyway. I realize that a lot of the questions I have about development probably amount to ‘the developers want to eventually do something about the weird design BUT there is only so much two programmers can do in a day’. But I feel like this is actually one the art-team could handle? Or wouldn’t consume much time? 

I kinda ultimately suspect this is just another biproduct of the design philosophy we’ve seen of ‘we’re scared to change our controls to the economy in any way ever because things might get worse than they are now AND the site is ultimately meant to run with open registration AND we can sit and claim we’re running a free market (author’s note: lolololololol) and people will buy it because they’ll apply their ideas about scarcity based actual world economies to a totally controlled artificial-scarcity virtual economy”.

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reblogged
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fishrising
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wobblegong

I’d need to date-check but—

My hypothesis is that it started going back down when the devs resumed pushing treasure-item releases, mostly the apparel but also the genes.

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not-a-lizard

But there were treasure-stuff releases earlier, too, weren’t there? Skydancers, Seraph, various apparel I wasn’t paying attention to… But the gem prices pretty much kept going up all year. Are we really getting that much more treasure stuff now?

"Are we really getting that much more treasure stuff now?" tl;dr we are. Fuck yeah I even have dates: July 7 for Seraph, August(?) for Skydancers, Sept 12 Underbelly, Nov 30 Crackle. That was it. Coatl were January 4th, and we got flower apparel at some point, but the next srsbsns treasure release was, mrr… damn, I don’t have dates on sashes, but Ripple was May 16.

So yeah, we did five and a half months of nothing but them thar flowars ta puts on yer dargen, treasure-wise.

Keep in mind it’s not JUST whether there’s things to spend the money on, it’s also a matter of how aggressively they’re released. It’s not just how big a river is, it’s also a matter of how fast it flows. Something that consumers are climbing all over each other for once a month seems to do the trick for fixing the gem ratios’ worryingly infinite upward trend. (Do you remember when people blathered about 250:1 being the “true” ratio based on the daily clan fed bonus perk? *stygian black laughter*)

… I’d also want to map the registration windows to this chart. Not sure how newbies impact things.

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NOTICE: FRSE is on indefinite hiatus. Reported gem ratios are not current!  Sorry folks.

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FRSE 6.6.14

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Conversion rate for June 6, 2014 is: 1:425

If you don't yet have an Akirbeak, it's not a bad time to buy one. They're on the low end of their price fluctuation right now.

Hatchling prices are trending down now, and it's not even Hatchnarok yet. We need a dom battle, stat.

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I was just wondering, how do you determine the conversion rate? Is it an average of the first page, or lowest selling price (because I've been tracking today and it's been more like 420-430 and on its way up)? Really appreciate you recording these trends, btw.

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Yesterday was weird. There were multiple posts selling for 400, although 420 was the more common post. People were all flocking to the 400 sellers, though. (I saw some people leave a 420:1 thread after already asking for a quote saying there was a “better offer on the forum now” when one of the 400 ones popped up.)

Yesterday I did take a sort of average, making it 410 just because the back and forth was so strange. Normally I just take the most common successful price, and that is usually the lowest one but sometimes not; I will ignore the one person undercutting everyone else if they’re only selling like 150g or something like that. It’s not an exact process, haha.

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FRSE 6.4.14

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Conversion rate for June 4, 2014 is: 1:410

WHOOPS rather late today, sorry about that. Hatchlings are on the rise! I am not sure if they will keep going up until Hatchnarok or if they'll peak around here (about 6.5k now.) Gilded Decorative Chests are up, where did all of them go?

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FRSE 6.3.14

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Conversion rate for June 3, 2014 is: 1:440

Welcome, June Wave Newbies! Welcome to the Completely Nonsensical Economy Simulator, featuring Dragons.

Hatchlings are up by 1k; a promising trend but, of course, five days from now all new progenitor nests will hatch and Hatchmageddon II: Electric Boogaloo will happen. So enjoy the small rise in hatchling prices while you can, dragon merchants! Hatchnarok is coming.

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FRSE 6.2.14

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Conversion rate for June 2, 2014 is: 1:440

Tomorrow is a new registration window! What will this do to prices!!??! I HAVE NO IDEA. My records only go back to just after the last registration window. So good luck, dragon merchants. Go bravely into uncharted economic waters.

And sell your dragons for gems. Newbies love gems.

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Why do you think that Ripple crashed so fast, Invisible Hand? Could it be that it just isn't that popular?

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Oh, no. It’s just the way the market works. First you get the snipers right when it’s announced who are able to price it for whatever they want, and people will buy it. Then more and more snipers join the hunt which leads to undercutting, and the people willing to buy it early for much-inflated price start to run out, so prices have to go lower and lower. The fact that not everybody HAD TO HAVE IT might have made it go down faster, yeah, but I think if we get another treasure gene out we’ll probably see a very similar timeline.

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Do you have the data (and especially the graphs) for the items you stopped tracking? I think it'd be really useful to have a separate page with that - for instance I agree that Ripple doesn't really need to be tracked any more, but for the next time we get a treasure gene, it would be useful to look back at the Ripple data to see how its value is likely to behave over time. And as always, thanks for doing this! :)

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I have definitely kept all the data for those items! Ripple crashed in literally a week, it’s pretty funny really.

But yes, all that data is still there! It’s logged in the History tabs underneath the active items.

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FRSE 6.1.14

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Conversion rate for June 1, 2014 is: 1:430

And we're back after a brief hiatus! I was off helping make THIS happen:

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(shout out to fellow raffle organizers and volunteers: Suzerain, Spooksy, Necare, Rosie, Duskwitch13, KatAKlism, UnforgivenSyns, Shell, and Sachie! WE DID IT)

News on the FRSE front! I have removed the following items from the stock market:

  • Scarlet Flycatcher
  • Celestial Antelope
  • Greater Sandstrike
  • Poultrygeist
  • Skittering Megashrimp
  • Cardinal Hippogriff
  • Ripple Scroll (on AH)

And the following have been ADDED:

  • Naturalist Adornments
  • Nature Sprite
  • Crimson Silk Sash

Gem ratio remains low and seems to be headed even lower! It'll be interesting to see how a registration window affects that.

See you next time, dragon merchants!

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