Twin tornadoes filmed near Cherokee, OK. A classic hand-off on a high-end Great Plains event.
We just hit the 48-hour window for Monday’s event, which means we have a treasure trove of data to work through. Here is where things stand:
- Almost every model does not form storms until sunset on Monday, some much later than that. This is due to the delayed wave timing we’ve talked about a couple of times, as well as a stronger cap than forecast prior, both working in tandem.
- The system coming out is very powerful and there will almost certainly be severe weather on Monday even still.
- The higher-end Monday scenarios that social media was buzzing about earlier this week do not look that likely at this time. Giant hail and a couple of tornadoes are still very possible, though.
- Data can change (honestly, it already has). Some of the things that we’ve seen as trends towards a lower-key event have continued for a few days, and that usually means a system is being better sampled, which means the data is more accurate.
We’re still monitoring it all for a possible chase, but recent trends suggest that the hype around this day is likely to dramatically lower.
GLOWING high-precipitation Supercell in SW Oklahoma as it spun up to produce a rain-wrapped twister!
There will be much talk about Monday’s severe weather threat over the weekend, and for good reason: there is a lot of potential.
But, at the same time, truly big days are pretty rare! As we move through the weekend, here are some of the questions that need resolving for Monday to reach big-time status:
- Cap strength: Some models are pretty bullish on producing a strong cap over the dryline. While most models do produce storms, not every model produces a lot of storms. Depending on the next factor, this could be a major player in the day or a more minor subplot.
- Wave timing: In the image, you see a forecast 500mb vorticity chart, with much of the main energy ‘hanging back’ on Monday afternoon. If the main wave doesn’t eject until after dark, Monday’s potential will be much less than it would be otherwise. If it ejects in the afternoon, Monday could be a giant potential day.
- Storm mode: Assuming the former two factors do not become issues, the last thing we’re monitoring carefully is what mode storms form in. Will they be discrete supercells with strong tornadoes possible, or will they be a more linear complex with damaging winds as the primary threat? This is something that is heavily dependent on a number of factors and is a factor that holds many big ingredient days back from reaching their full potential.
The thing we always say is that major tornado events are rare for a reason! They do happen! Monday certainly has the potential to be one of those big days, but it also has a lot of potential to be anything but that. We can only wait and see what future data says. We’ll keep this space updated throughout the weekend and may even go live for a special briefing.
I wish I could say the conversation in the first clip was unexpected…but that would be a lie!
Chasing down a hail filled supercell near Rotam, Texas earlier this week!!
This is going to come as a shock to anyone who prefers to buy expensive cameras, but the camera body you buy really isn't giving you a leg up anymore...
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Look this is perhaps my hottest take of the early parts of 2024, but I believe in another few years the camera body you shoot with will not matter so long as it is relatively recent. Buying a 7 year old body used means you lose some cool features, but your image quality will not be that different.
Cameras are still getting better, but their image quality really isn't.
0:00 - The Plateau 1:33 - Cameras Are Improving 2:10 - Software is the Future 2:50 - Bargain Bin 3:20 - Camera Wars 3:50 - Sensor Size 4:24 - Ergonomics 5:08 - The Robots Are Coming 6:24 - But There's Hope...
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All the talk next week is on Monday. That make sense because the Storm Prediction Center is already highlighting portions of the Southern Plains for a significant severe weather risk. While we want to stress details can certainly change at this range, there is a lot of model agreement across suites and ensembles of an environment supportive of supercells with giant hail and strong tornadoes on Monday afternoon and evening.
The things we don’t know right now that will dramatically effect Monday’s risk:
- The exact location of the dryline. This is the boundary storms will mostly form off of on Monday. Models have this anywhere from the eastern Texas Panhandle to West-Central Oklahoma.
- Storm mode concerns? Any big event could be more linear than cellular. Linear events would lessen the risk of strong tornadoes.
- Wave timing? Currently, models have the upper wave timed perfectly. But this far in advance, small changes will make a big difference. For the biggest days on the Plains, a wave ejecting in the mid-late afternoon is the perfect combo. Any changes to that would mean big differences on the overall threat on Monday.
We’ll be keeping an eye on it all.
Total Solar Eclipse as seen from NE Texas in 360°!
The final seconds before totality during yesterday's solar eclipse in Texas!
Your Camera Body Doesn't Matter Anymore for Image Quality
North Texas Supercell and Tornado Threat (April 8, 2024)
An Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms exists for portions of northwest and north-central Texas. Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are expected to develop from mid-afternoon through tonight, with the severe weather risks lasting all night and into tomorrow. The main threat is large to giant hail, with a few tornadoes and severe wind gusts also possible.
Locations
- Northwest Texas
- North-central Texas
Threats
- Large to giant hail (potentially 3-4 inches in diameter)
- A few tornadoes (mainly towards evening)
- Damaging wind gusts
Timing
- Mid-afternoon through tonight and into tomorrow.
Discussion
Weather Development: A deepening upper-level trough moving across the Southwest will create a very favorable environment for severe storms. Rich moisture and strong heating will lead to significant instability, while strong winds at various levels in the atmosphere will provide ample wind shear.
Storm Evolution:
- Initial storms will likely be supercells, posing the highest threat of large to giant hail.
- Storms may consolidate into a cluster during the evening, maintaining a severe threat across north-central Texas.
Overnight Concerns: Renewed storm development is possible in western Texas, with large hail remaining the main threat. Severe weather will be possible continuously, at least until tomorrow afternoon.
Tornado Threat: The threat will begin to rise in the late afternoon and last into the night. The highest chances of tornadoes will be with any sustained supercells from 5 p.m. to midnight.
Technical Discussion
Initial Cells will form both at the triple point in West Texas and in a warm advection regime across East Texas, southern Arkansas, and Northern Louisiana late this afternoon and early this evening. These initial cells will be capable of large hail and a tornado.
The severe weather threat will likely peak from about 7 p.m. to 9 p.m. in the hours around sunset. These cells will pose an increasing tornado chance as low-level wind fields increase.
At the triple point, effective SRH values of nearly 200 m2/s2, along with enough instability to sustain updrafts, will lead to an increasing chance of tornadoes near dark. Interestingly enough, I think there’s a reasonable chance for some decent storm structure today out west as well. We’ll be monitoring.
To the south and east in the warm advection regime, moisture and wind shear are both ample enough for tornadic activity as well. Effective SRH values of greater than 200 m2/s2 are common on soundings. It is important to note that storms tend to be a bit more widespread than models predict in these regimes, and smaller cells can produce tornadoes. We’ll be monitoring this risk area as well for post-eclipse tornado viewing possibilities.
Here is an image showing the coverage of clouds in reality vs. what a model that has been predicting widespread cloud cover for the eclipse had prognosticated for this afternoon. As you can see, the end result is close, but clouds aren’t as thick as forecast in many areas and slightly less widespread than models had said.
This might mean a few areas on the fringes of cloud coverage on the most aggressive models will still have views. Ditto for areas in cloud cover where some pretty prominent breaks are present. We’re going to be making a final decision from chase HQ on where we’re going early tomorrow morning.