NOAA just issued the Severe (G4) level geomagnetic storm watch for May 11, 2024
Yeah, the Sun sneezed pretty hard, a number of times, on May 9th: five CMEs, apparently. :) (Check this page and scroll down to the middle "Coronal mass injection" window to see a video of the sneezing as it happened, courtesy of the LASCO instruments on the SOHO solar observation satellite.)
As a result, what we have incoming now may be the strongest geomagnetic storm since 2005, if it holds to its predicted K-index strength of Kp 8 (on a scale of 0-9).
A quick note to those who're new at aurora-watching: The predictive diagrams above and below are not like those we're used to seeing for events such as solar eclipses. They are not illustrations or indicators of precise locations where aurorae will be visible. They are estimates of the effects of constantly changing near-space conditions—meaning the interaction between the incoming solar wind and the Earth's magnetic field and upper atmosphere. Though a prediction may suggest that you're not in an area of visibility, this may change without warning while the event lasts. So if a diagram suggests you're a near miss, go out and take a look at active times, anyway. Conditions may have changed, and surprises are always possible.
Peak maybe-we'll-see-it time for Irish and UK people looks to be around 2100ish. (Video courtesy of ITV [UK] weather guy @ChrisPage90 over at the Once Upon A Bird place.)
The North American forecast looks like this (NOAA video via ex-Birdie-based @GrandForksNDSkyColor):
...And it looks like our local forecast, for a blessed change, suggests we might actually see something. (That band of cloud out in the Atlantic won't be here until tomorrow evening.)
I think we'd better go out and uncover the lawn furniture. :)
Pertinent to this event: Space Weather Prediction Center issues its first G4 (severe electromagnetic storm watch) warning since 2005
...Other useful resources for those interested in space weather generally, and solar weather:
- NASA's SOHO (Solar and Heliospheric Observatory) satellite's "The Sun Now" page
- ESA Space Weather Service Network
- NOAA (US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) Space Weather and Prediction Page
- OVATION auroral prediction model from the DSCOVR spacecraft, via SpaceWeatherLive
ETA: For those of you who were looking for an Asian map of the auroral oval: these seem few and far between. This turned up after some searching, at the Meteologix page.
...Having looked at the way the oval is acting, though, it looks like visibility is going to be limited pretty much to the far north of Asia.
ETA 2: Check out this assortment of European webcams. Half of them show glowing pink skies, and a lot of these are NOT sunsets. Pink aurorae are typical of high-energy events.
ETA 3: The zones of auroral visibility for this storm are proving much larger than predicted: on this side of the Atlantic, aurorae were being seen as far south as northern Africa. If you’re anywhere near a previously-predicted “live zone” in North America, and your weather’s good, go out and take a look tonight and see what you can see.
In some places the auroral display has looked like a faint haze that seems to cover nearly the whole sky. If you have a smartphone, use it to take time exposures if possible. It will be able to see things you can’t.
Clear skies and good seeing tonight, everybody!