Duck Dynasty Misfire

RelishMIX TV – A&E Duck Dynasty Report for January 23, 2014 TV Drama: Duck Dynasty – A&E Channel Timeslot:  10:00 PM Wednesday

Duck Dynasty Misfire

A&E and Duck Dynasty had one of the most impressive PR campaigns in late December – in time for the holiday buying season, a home video season launch, and a whole new season.  But the numbers tell us that it was only a misfire.

The first episode ratings were down an incredible 28% from last season.  Only 8.5 million viewers compared to 12 million.  After the spectacular PR chatter in December, what happened?  The social media numbers from RelishMIX tell part of the story.

Social Media Dies Off

As you can see all social media returns to the level of early December – not a good sign for a huge ratings boost.

Of course it would be impossible to continue the level of social media activity seen in late December over a very long time period, but the numbers continued to decline all the way through the season premiere on January 15.  No one was talking about Duck Dynasty any more.  So not many people decided to watch.  There was not an increase of new viewers – motivated by the PR activity – to propel the show to new heights.

But how did Duck Dynasty fare on social media engagement during the weeks following this epic media/PR event? RelishMIX provides some answers.

Engagement Daily Activity

With the exception of the day following the series premiere – January 16th – the level of engagement was at the same rate as in early December.  Not a good sign there.

Engagement Sentiment                                                                                                               

In looking at the numbers in more detail on RelishMIX we can see that the Engagement Sentiment numbers make a definite shift after the release of the GQ article and seem to stay there.  The neutral sentiment on social media which grew in response to the initial PR seems to hang on.  The good news for the Duck family is that the negative sentiment didn’t grow but neither has the positive.  The RelishMIX engagement sentiment tracking doesn’t show a big new audience that tuned in and liked it on social media. 

Interestingly RelishMIX social media engagement reporting does show a definite drop in negative sentiment right on the day of the series premiere.

Demographics:       

RelishMIX also provides a look at engagement demographics.  This data shows a significant shift the audience before and after Phil’s brush with fame on 12/9.  And this growth in men talking more about Duck Dynasty on social media does appear to continue.

Conclusion:

Duck Dynasty does appear to be cooling off in the ratings.

One week after the season 5 season premiere, 3.3 rating in adults 18-49, 8.5 million viewers overall, Duck Dynasty floated to a 2.9 in the demo and 6.65 million total viewers, according to Nielsen.

The great explosion of social media activity reported on RelishMIX surrounding the December GQ article appeared to have run its course too early to launch a new season to outstanding ratings. 

Is 8.5 million viewers of the season premiere bad news?  There are a lot of television shows on cable and network that would love to have that type of attention.  But the expectations of a big ratings win for Duck Dynasty didn’t come true.  Social media activity reflects the level of viewer interest.

Unfortunately we aren’t able to report on the purchases for consumer products for Duck Dynasty in the holiday season.  That may have been the big win for this PR strategy.

Source: All data was compiled using RelishMIX – http://relishmix.com. 

Duck Dynasty Comes Out with a Bang

RelishMIX TV – A&E Duck Dynasty Report for January 3, 2014, updated January 17, 2014 TV Drama: Duck Dynasty – A&E  Timeslot: 10:00 PM Wednesday

Help! Viewership going down - how to we put more Quack into Duck Dynasty

Here are the numbers that the people at A&E and the Robertson family who star in Duck Dynasty were reviewing at the end of this year’s season – the 4th in the series. For the first time the incredible (by cable or network channel standards) premiere of 11.77 million viewers had actually dwindled to ‘only’ 8.40 million. Most producers and networks would be extremely happy to see those numbers. But for the first time A&E and Duck Dynasty were experiencing a decline in viewers.

Season 1: Premiere/Finale Ratings: 1.81 million viewers/2.56 million Season 2: Premiere/Finale Ratings: 3.70 million viewers/6.45 million Season 3: Premiere/Finale Ratings: 8.62 million viewers/9,63 million Season 4: Premiere/Finale Ratings: 11.77 million viewers/8.40 million

Season 5: Premiere Rating: 8.49 million viewers

What could they do to reverse that trend for the upcoming season? 

What could produce a PR win for the show with its core audience? There wasn’t a big chance that they would be able to expand into other demos, but they knew there were more of their fan base out there to reach. One program could have been entitled “Project GQ”. The Quack Heard Around the World Most people have already heard of the famous controversial interview in GQ magazine by Phil Robertson. The comments have been repeated and critiqued by people from all ends of the political and social spectrums.

Was the Quack going to sink the ship or breathe new life into the show. Our Data Insights across all major media showed that the overall sentiment was positive and that this was going to be a real shot in the arm for the show, but enough to go to new levels of viewership?

Social media exploded for the Robinson Family and the Duck Dynasty franchise. Twitter became the media of choice with a high of 164k tweets in a day. The Facebook fan base also expanded to over 125k new fans due to the event. YouTube received a higher-than-average number of video views after the initial story broke. Here is more of the story:

Engagement Daily Activity

The Twitter trend for Daily Activity and Weekly Activity both show a definite spike after the 19th of December:

Engagement Sentiment In looking at the numbers in more detail on RelishMIX we can see that the Engagement Sentiment numbers make a definite shift after the release of the GQ article. But surprisingly it is that the “Positive” sentiment tends to be replaced by a more “Neutral” response. One would expect that there would be a more polarizing effect in the tone of social media; but this is not the case.

One thing that is clear is that there is not an increasing negative trend in social media activity after the event.

Demographics: RelishMIX also provides a look at engagement demographics. This data shows a significant shift the audience before and after Phil’s brush with fame on 12/9. Beginning on the 19th of December the proportion of social media engagement in the female demographic dropped around 15% - to around 40%. This points out that the overwhelming increase in social engagement traffic was driven by the male audience showing up. This trend has continued with very few exceptions for each day since.

Device: In addition to demographics, RelishMIX data shows that – not surprisingly – most people are engaging these shows from their mobile device. However, there is a slight increase in the proportion of the audience joining the conversation from a non-mobile device. This may lead us to the conclusion that a part of the expanded social audience were men who were using a non-mobile device. This is probably an older demographic.

Conclusion:

Conclusion: It is well known that people are engaging more and more with their favorite TV shows online. But what happens when a news story hits a particular TV show? Does social media reflect that buzz? Will the attention hold ? What should the lead time be to connect controversy to ratings?  Will networks learn to cross pollinate their online marketing to drive higher engagement and build viewership ? From where we sit all the networks have a long way to go to understand the brave new world of social tribes.

This is such a fun time to be in the data analytics business, the craziest things spark the publics fancy and seeing the trends in viewing, how and when they view, how the audience shares or kills a show , how you can clearly what TV shows are going to get cancelled can be exhilarating. Its pretty obvous if no one is talking about you,  no no one is watching your promos your dead.

So remember he who Quacks the loudest, is a Duck

Source: All data was compiled using RelishMIX – http://relishmix.com.

Hunger Games vs Thor: Putting fans to work as marketers.

The RelishMIX Fall season 2013- Network Bubble Tracking.  Social media seems to mirror real life.

With 3 pick-ups so far of 13 new dramas they represent the social media winners: Sleepy Hollow (FOX), The Blacklist (NBC), and (not-surprisingly popular online) Marvel Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.

The two cancellations so far - Lucky 7 (ABC) and Ironside (NBC) didn't have the smallest social media footprint, but neither of them was anywhere near as popular as the pick-ups.

On the RelishMIX report, the ones on the bubble do not seem to have a large online audience that could be important in putting any pressure on the network from a disappointed audience upon cancellation.

And check out the activity on Almost Human (FOX) which has yet to air. A good sign for the sci-fi drama.

RelishMIX October Movie Tracking - October 18

RelishMIX October Movie Tracking - October 18, 2013

Will Carrie Knock Gravity Out of #1?

Gravity has continued to dominate the box office for two weeks – totaling $140 million so far through October 17.  This week Carrie is set to open and may be poised to break Gravity’s run at #1. 

RelishMIX October Movie Tracking reports that Warner’s Gravity continues to engage social media primarily on YouTube. Despite being in theaters for over two weeks YouTube video views continue at an impressive rate of around 300k+ views per day.

But Carrie has posted phenomenal 53 million views.  The majority comes from the Telekinetic Coffee Shop video which has over 42 million views alone since it was launched just over a week ago. 

The video is interesting and entertaining and is not a typical trailer video.  The marketing team at Screen Gems/MGM definitely deserves credit here.  But will that translate into box office success this weekend?  At least it was responsible for building 40k new Facebook fans for the movie.

RelishMIX October Movie Tracking - October 12

RelishMIX October Movie Tracking - October 12, 2013

Gravity in Week 2 Will Swamp Captain Phillips

Gravity blasted to huge opening weekend – the biggest ever in October – with $55.8 million and has grown to $79.1 through Thursday.  So what will the weekend bring when the Sandra Bullock/George Clooney film is up against Tom Hanks as Captain Phillips?

RelishMIX October Movie Tracking reports that Warner’s Gravity is engaging its audience much better than Columbia’s Captain Phillips:

Gravity YouTube Video Views – even in week 2 of its release – greatly overshadow the YouTube interest in Captain Phillips.  Facebook reach for Gravity also towers over that for Captain Phillips, which is made up of mostly fans of Tom Hanks.

RelishMIX October Movie Tracking shows that the huge talent-based Facebook Fan pages for Machete Kills will not be enough to drive fans to the theaters.

On the horizon Escape Plan (Oct 18 release) enjoys tremendous Facebook Reach, but that is mostly attributed to 50 Cent which is unlikely to translate into filled seats in the theater opening weekend.  This is a Sylvester Stallone/Arnold Schwarzenegger film.

But on October 25, Jackass Presents Bad Grandpa is going to be supported by a huge Facebook following for the Jackass franchise – 28 million fans and counting.  And Johnny Knoxville alone has 1.1 million followers.  And it is a safe bet these fans are going to be heading out to see the latest installment.

Conclusion:

It is expected that Gravity will outperform the well-received Captain Phillips.  The RelishMIX October Movie Tracking data supports that idea.

And one movie closer to Halloween – Bad Grandpa – has the social media footprint to make for a big opening weekend.

Source: All data was compiled using RelishMIX. 

For more information on RelishMIX visit our site at http/relishmix.com, use the "Ask Us a Question" button above, or email us at info@relishmix.com.  We would like to hear your comments.

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RelishMIX TV Drama Comparison: The Blacklist vs. Hostages

Report for October 9, 2013

TV Drama: The Blacklist (NBC) vs. Hostages (ABC)

Timeslot:  10:00 PM Monday

Two new dramas go head-to-head on Monday night at 10 pm – The Blacklist on NBC and Hostages on CBS.

The ratings as reported on TVbytheNumbers.com are:

(18-49 Rating/18-49 Share/Viewers Live+SD (millions))

09.23.13 NBC The Blacklist 3.8/10/12.62 CBS Hostages 1.8/5/7.48      

09.30.13 NBC The Blacklist 3.6/10/12.08 CBS Hostages 1.5/4/5.99

10.07.13 NBC The Blacklist 3.2/9/11.26 CBS Hostages 1.2/35.14

How do the ratings compare with their social media activity?  RelishMIX provides some answers.

Overall the RelishMIX Engagement numbers show similar social media activity as reflected in the ratings: The Blacklist roughly doubles Hostages in several key metrics.

Engagement Daily Activity: 

Both the daily and weekly engagement numbers show that The Blacklist easily doubles the activity of Hostages.  Engagement is a combination of activity on Twitter, GetGlue, and Viggle.  As expected these numbers significantly peak on the Monday – the day both shows air.  It is interesting to note that Viggle provides a significant amount of online engagement for both shows.

  Engagement Sentiment:                                                                                                        

In looking at the numbers in more detail on RelishMIX we can see that the Engagement Sentiment numbers also point to the strength of The Blacklist on social media.

  Positive Sentiment for Engagement starts high for both shows but over time it begins to slip for Hostages – following their slide in ratings.  The Blacklist however is maintaining a positive sentiment in social media.  You can also see that Neutral Sentiment has remained higher for Hostages when compared with The Blacklist.  This is not good news for the show as it takes a high level of positive sentiment for people to be recommending a show to their social media contacts.

Looking closer at the comparison in Positive Sentiment for both shows below,  The Blacklist is exceeding Hostages almost every day – sometimes by more than 20%.

Demographics:       

RelishMIX also provides a look at engagement demographics.  This data shows consistently that more women are talking about Hostages than men.  By contrast slightly more men are engaging with The Blacklist.

  Conclusion:

It is well known that people are engaging more and more with their favorite TV shows online.  The RelishMIX data supports that idea.

But it can also be shown that social media engagement also appears to parallel the ratings for these two shows.  And the downward trend in Positive Sentiment for Hostages is not a good sign for that show.

Source:

All data was compiled using RelishMIX – http://relishmix.com. 

For more information on RelishMIX visit our site at http/relishmix.com, use the "Ask Us a Question" button above, or email us at info@relishmix.com.  We would like to hear your comments.

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RelishMIX Movie Recap - October 7, 2013

RelishMIX Movie Recap

October 7, 2013

Movies opening this past weekend:

Gravity (Warner Bros.) exceeded all expectations, building to a US box office total of $55.6 million compared with projections of $42.0.  The Sandra Bullock/George Clooney film earned the highest-grossing opening ever in October.  Runner Runner (Fox) has A-list talent with Ben Affleck and Justin Timberlake.  But even with a modest projection of $11.0 million it missed the mark, taking in only $7.6.

Were these expectations reflected in social media?                                                     

Facebook:                 

Runner Runner on Facebook is the clear winner – with Justin Timberlake having a fan base of almost 27 million followers.  Ben Affleck – and most celebrities – has a much smaller fan base and the fan page for the movie itself has only slightly less than 120,000 fans.  Gravity has over 171,000 Facebook fans on the movie page but neither Bullock nor Clooney come anywhere near Timberlake’s numbers.

What is interesting is how the Gravity Facebook fan page exploded over the weekend, demonstrating that people wanted to connect with a film they liked.  Based on RelishMIX information:

 Twitter:

Just as we see on Facebook, Justin Timberlake is an incredible fan base on Twitter – almost 27 million followers.  No other talent from either picture comes anywhere close to that number. 

When you look closer, you can see how large Timberlake is in the total Twitter footprint for Runner Runner – reflecting over 94% of total Runner Runner reach:

  This information from RelishMIX also shows that the growth in Twitter Reach (number of followers) doesn’t reflect any real response based the opening of either movie.

But if we look deeper into Twitter activity we can see that Gravity did gain an edge in the Twitter universe.  When we look at engagement we can see that people were starting to talk more about Gravity going into the weekend:

And more importantly the sentiment for Gravity increased as people began to see the film and talk about it on Twitter – primarily shifting the neutral chatter to positive chatter:

  YouTube:

YouTube activity measured in the number of video views on RelishMIX  may show the most compelling evidence that Gravity was going to be a winner.

The data shows that almost three times the number of videos were seen on YouTube for Gravity compared with Runner Runner.  And most importantly these were seen in the days leading up to opening weekend – when people are making their decision on what movie to see.

Overall social media footprint:

Social media did point to a big win for Gravity this week:

Another interesting story when comparing these two movies is that huge fan bases on Facebook and Twitter don’t always translate to box office success if the fans weren’t there for the film in the first place.  This is what happened with Justin Timberlake this weekend.

  Source: All data was compiled using RelishMIX.

For more information on RelishMIX visit our site at http/relishmix.com, use the "Ask Us a Question" button above, or email us at info@relishmix.com.  We would like to hear your comments.

We send out weekly information on the topic of the week.  We invite you to subscribe above.