人斬り抜刀斎

@vagabcndisms / vagabcndisms.tumblr.com

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re: Battousai killed HOW many people? CORRECTED(ish) VERSION

(You can read the original post here.)

Hold the phone, tumblr! I’VE MADE A HUGE MISTAKE.

(In my defense, 3 in the morning is probably not the best time to be attempting to work out this kind of thing, but still.)

Thanks so much to all the people who pointed out that the previous numbers are horribly inflated. Yes, the Bakumatsu was a 15 year war, but Kenshin certainly didn’t participate for all 15 years.

Kenshin was born in 1849, and the Bakumatsu is commonly considered to have begun around 1853 (with the arrival of the black ships). So Kenshin was only four when it began, and obviously not quite fit to fight yet…even for Kenshin.

My understanding is that he enlisted at age 14, which would make it 1863 – a full ten years after the war began. According to my memory of the manga and to many of you, he worked as a Choushuu hitokiri up until the battle of Toba-Fushimi (in Jan 1868). However, as iamhibarikyouya pointed out, he took between 6 months to a year off during the latter half of 1864 to go into hiding with Tomoe (though the most unfortunate of all his killings took place during that dormant period, among a few others…aaand now I’ve depressed myself).

So really, he couldn’t have been actively killing for much more than about four years. NOT FIFTEEN! D:

As misaki-toyodome pointed out, the Shinsengumi became better at deterring assassinations as they rose to power. So instead let’s assume his first six months were the most prolific (at 90-100 hits), and if we adjust the subsequent years’ numbers to the previous conservative estimates of 60-80 every six months (due to both laying low and later Shinsengumi interference)…

Year 1863 through 1864:

90 to 100 (first 6 mos only, inactive for at least 6 mos after the Ikedaya incident, which took place in July*)

Year 1865 to JANUARY of 1868:

60(2) x 3 yrs =  360

80(2) x 3 yrs = 480

So for all four years, that’s actually between 450 and 580 people killed. (*note that I’m assuming roughly four years total here instead of four years and then some to try to control further for Shinsengumi interference)

That sounds far more plausible, no? Still terrible, but plausible. That’s an average of about 128.75 assassinations a year. 128.76/365 days a year = 0.35. So Battousai killed just over one-third of a person each day, or one person every three days. Note that this is an (probably very misleading) average over four years, and I seriously doubt that the Shinsengumi would have allowed such a high rate during the latter years (they were just too badass, no?). However, the initial canon rate suggested by the manga panel is even higher, with at least 90 hits over the first 182.5 days (about 6 mos), which is 0.49 kills per day, or about one kill every other day (!!!)

No rest for the wicked indeed. That’s still terrifyingly efficient. D:

If we calculate the ripple effect like before (again assuming 3-5 immediate family members per victim and choosing the middle of the given range of total victims, which is 515), then about 1545-2575 people lost a loved one to him.

As some have pointed out, it is no wonder Hiko was never in favor of Kenshin’s decision to enter the political fray. Even a single sword following Hiten-Mitsurugi is clearly capable of causing tremendous suffering, not least of all to its own wielder.

DISCLAIMER: Please bear in mind that these numbers are based on estimations that are pure speculation. Anybody else attempting this same exercise could end up with wildly different ones due to even the most minor of adjustments (try it!). So this is just for fun.

It’s also worth noting that I wasn’t a math major for good reason

If anyone sees any further mistakes, please let me know!

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reblogged

do u ever have feels about how badly Hiko must think he fucked up Kenshin cuz i do.

like, he takes in this kid who’s lost everything and was barely saved by people who sacrificed themselves for him, and shreds his last connection to his family by changing his name.

And he teaches this kid, and loves him and raises him, and sure they fight but Hiko would move the earth for kenshin and the kid knows it 

(right?)

and then Kenshin is fourteen and full of damn-fool idealistic notions and they’re fighting (they always fight, and kenshin always falls asleep in the woods and Hiko always brings him back home).

But when Hiko goes to find his student, Kenshin is gone. And Hiko hears the stories of Hitokiri Battousai, of Himura Battousai, of the assassin, and it’s Kenshin, it has to be, but it sounds nothing like the child Hiko trained.

years later, Kenshin returns and there’s no love of living in him. Hiko stares at the young man who was(is) his student, and wonders where did I go so wrong, that you believe your life is without value?

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Honestly something that bothers me more than most things is having my compassion mistaken for naivety.

I know that another fish might eat this bullfrog right after I spend months rehabilitating it.

I know that turning a beetle back onto its legs won’t save it from falling over again when I walk away.

I know that there is no cosmic reward waiting for my soul based on how many worms I pick off a hot sidewalk to put into the mud, or how many times I’ve helped a a raccoon climb out of a too-deep trashcan. 

I know things suffer, and things struggle, and things die uselessly all day long. I’m young and idealistic, but I’m not literally a child. I would never judge another person for walking by an injured bird, for ignoring a worm, or for not really caring about the fate of a frog in a pond full of, y’know, plenty of other frogs.

There is nothing wrong with that.

But I cannot cannot cannot look at something struggling and ignore it if I may have the power to help.

There is so much bad stuff in this world so far beyond my control, that I take comfort in the smallest, most thankless tasks. It’s a relief to say “I can help you in this moment,” even though they don’t understand.

I don’t need a devil’s advocate to tell me another fish probably ate that frog when I let it go, or that the raccoon probably ended up trapped in another dumpster the next night.

I know!!!! I know!!!!!!! But today I had the power to help! So I did! And it made me happy!

So just leave me alone alright thank u!!!!

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shrineart

THIS.

I heard a story about this, a parable I guess.

There was a big storm and a ton of starfish were washed onto the beach, stranded much further up than they could get back and beginning to bake in the post-storm sunshine. A little girl was walking down the beach, picking up starfish and throwing them back into the sea. Some guy comes up and asks her what she’s doing. “Saving the starfish,” she says.

He looks around at the huge beach and the hundreds of starfish, and says “You can’t possibly save them all. I’m afraid you’re not gonna make much of a difference.”

She throws another starfish back into the ocean, and replies “It made a difference to that one.”

Yeah, I mean, we know we can’t change all the things. But have you ever noticed how much better life is when you’re around people who change things when they can?

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