If you bet on college football, there may be no safer play than Louisiana Tech +23 at Mississippi State. Take Louisiana Tech and the points. Thank me later.
State has scored a total of 7 points or less in 3 of their most recent 5 games. LA Tech and State have one common opponent --- LSU. MSU lost to LSU by 16, LTU by 17. However, LTU outgained LSU and at one point in the third quarter it was anyone’s game with LSU clinging to a tenuous 24-21 lead.
LSU dominated State in pretty much all phases and was never really threatened in a dominating 19-3 victory.
Both teams played LSU in Baton Rouge. However, all things considered, LA Tech played a far, far more competitive game than did MSU against their lone common opponent.
An additional factor is that MSU’s #1 strength as a team is their run defense. LA Tech throws for 100 more yards per game than they pick up on the ground, so MSU’s secondary may have to carry more of the load than usual.
Louisiana Tech was given only a 7.3% chance of victory according to ESPN’s FPI Matchup Predictor. This quite frankly is insane. In addition to LTU being better against their lone common opponent to whom they both lost, LA Tech’s only other defeat came at the hands of a 7-1 UAB team. Louisiana Tech does have a quality win against North Texas, 7-2, whose only other loss was to UAB.
Because Mississippi State is ranked, plays in the SEC (North Texas - the same one that LA Tech beat - hammered SEC West Arkansas, 37-14) and is coming off a win against a Texas A&M team with a suspect secondary; and because LTU is a CUSA school about whom most bettors know very little, the result is the most lopsided line I’ve observed in recent weeks.
I would be very surprised if Mississippi State will be able to score enough to win by more than 23. I don’t think they’ll shut out LTU, and I don’t think they’re able to score 40+ on one of the best Group of 5 teams being a nearly entirely one-dimensional offense.
I will be betting LA Tech and taking the 23 points.
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