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reblogged

This one is long, but it’s super worth reading.

(Interesting podcast episode on the topic of cognitive science of reading for background knowledge: https://brainsciencepodcast.com/bsp/2017/why-reading-science-matters-bs-136)

I’ll explain the punch line anyway: Primary schools in the USA are teaching children to read in a way that sets them up to fail. Some children will learn to read regardless, some won’t. The whole thing is an unfortunate interaction between settled science about how adults read, how they deal with new words they never read before, how children read, and how we should teach children. Adults can skip over words they don’t know and see if the text still make sense, barely look at a word beyond the first letter because they know which word to expect at that position in the sentence, and infer the meaning of unknown words from context. This is settled science.

The linked post is the story of different systems of teaching children how to read: Rote learning of whole words, phonics, context cues, or a mixed approach. The ideas about context cues vs phonics seem really obvious, and adults use a of context when reading text, they skim instead of sounding out, but the obvious conclusion (teach children to rely on context) is wrong.

If you teach children to read, you must not teach them to infer anything from context before you actually teach them to look at the letters, and that the letters mean sounds and the sounds form words, and the letters also form words. You need to teach that first, otherwise the children will struggle to read word, look for clues in the pictures or guess a word that fits into the sentence but they won’t associate the written letters with the sounds or the sequence of letters with the word as a whole.

The perceptual system in the brain is a Bayesian inference machine, and when you read enough, then your perceptual system will fill in the tables of word probabilities automatically.

But if you teach children whole words or phonics, but also teach them that they can sometimes skip over a word in first grade when the words are really simple, then it looks like they are learning to read but they actually don’t, and they will struggle to read even a simple newspaper article later in life.

Sure, if they are 12 and they don’t know the word “pericombobulations“, then you can tell them to skip the word or guess the meaning from context, and when you’re 51, and you read a newspaper article, you don’t need to craeflluy look at ervey ltteer wehn you can jsut mkae snese of teh graeetr wlhoe. But all this hinges on you being able to already know how to read, and it only works because you can look at the word “pericombobulations“ and say it out loud even if you never heard or read it before.

You can’t teach children the “algorithms“ or “heuristics“ adults use if you don’t make them develop a mental model of the territory. It’s like Lockhart’s Lament but for letters instead of numbers.

The Educational Upside Down is a parallel dimension where elementary school children are captivated by street signs and bored rigid by myths and tales of heroes. It is a dimension where early readers work out the relationships between the sounds of English and the letters that represent these sounds largely by being immersed in anodyne, specially written story books. Yet, weirdly, it is also a dimension where children have to be explicitly taught ‘comprehension strategies’ to understand what they read, such as activating their prior knowledge or deciding which sentence is the most important, and then must practice these strategies for the greater part of the school day. This is a dimension where knowledge of the world—that same prior knowledge that needs activating—is the last thing that it would occur to anyone to actually teach children in schools.
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balioc

There’s a really interesting and important meta-level point to be made here about the nature of learning.  I feel like I’m foggily groping around the edges of something big.

If nothing else –

– assuming, for the moment, that all the information in these articles is correct and that all the arguments are valid (and I do suspect that it’s all pretty on-target) –

– the mistakes being made by the advocates of cue-based literacy instruction are some really understandable mistakes.

They have a bunch of kids who can’t read well, and they’re not sure what they should be teaching those kids to do.  They say “OK, let’s look at some really excellent readers, and see what those guys do, and teach the kids that.”  Which is a very intuitively obvious “empirically-grounded” kind of plan. 

Except that, as it turns out, what separates excellent readers from bad readers is a really solid foundation in basic-level technical skills, which aren’t visibly incorporated into any “strategy” because they’re so baked-in.  If you want to produce more excellent readers you have to be mostly teaching them those technical skills.  Worse yet: cargo-culting the actions of excellent readers, which is the thing you’re actually teaching, is the default strategy of confused incompetent readers and basically the Worst Possible Thing in terms of habit-formation. 

…I have a sense that this precise pattern comes up a lot.  I think people want to use “data” or “science” or whatever in order to find the Best Answer to their problem, and this leads to situations where they’ve identified Success but they don’t understand it, but they think that they’ve already done what they need to do in order to get a grip on the proceedings, and so their actual implementation plan amounts to cargo-culting.

I suppose that’s only to be expected, in a world where Success is almost certain to involve so many moving parts that you can’t possibly understand its mechanisms just by looking.

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kenny-evitt

Aaargh – yes!

I'm facing this currently helping my daughter with basic arithmetic. She's learning how to add and subtract (whole) numbers with 2-3 digits in decimal numerals. I can see the problems my daughter's having with the whole thing. I can measure the 'inferential distance' between her understanding and knowledge of small cardinal numbers and the actually kind of sophisticated system we use to represent those numbers in our common "base-ten positional numeral system". And one key concept she's missing, and probably won't be introduced to for a while, is multiplication. '10' only really makes sense as 1 × 10 + 0 × 1. I'm hoping to get her an abacus as I think that might really help.

And the crazy thing is that multiplication isn't that hard. Her homework worksheets even visualize multiples of ten and a hundred using a visual representation of multiplication! In one case, the 'tens' were visualized as bundles of ten 'rods' – 'ones' were a single rod. A hundred was then visualized as a bundle of ten 'tens' bundles. Multiplication!

Later, on the same worksheet page, a 'hundred' was visualized as a square made of 10 × 10 little cubes.

And yet, my daughter, and her classmates, will probably learn enough to pass their class, and graduate to the next year. And they'll probably mostly be able to function mathematically – as much as anyone else is likely to demand of them.

And yet, almost no one could probably explain how the decimal numeral system works to represent whole numbers. And just one of the reasons why that's sad is that none of those people are likely to ever help anyone else really understand how it works either.

I'm going to go buy her an abacus ...

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argumate

talk of levying an empty shop tax to stop landlords leaving shops unleased “for years” instead of reducing rents; I see empty shops everywhere but don’t really understand it, how can it be rational to accept zero rent instead of accepting lower rent, that sounds crazy.

What’re the odds of damage to the property? Lots of places already have property tax, which would fall on unused units anyway.

I don’t know, I would have thought empty shops were more vulnerable to damage based on how quickly they get graffitied, I guess based on broken windows theory? but I’m really not sure what’s going on here.

if real estate prices were soaring then it might make sense to just focus on capital gains but as far as I know they’re slumping a bit.

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kenny-evitt

Painting over graffiti is a lot cheaper than rebuilding after someone fucks with the gas main (or a load-bearing wall).

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argumate

talk of levying an empty shop tax to stop landlords leaving shops unleased “for years” instead of reducing rents; I see empty shops everywhere but don’t really understand it, how can it be rational to accept zero rent instead of accepting lower rent, that sounds crazy.

I mean maybe if they’re worried about being locked into a ten year lease at below market rates so they would rather wait six months for a better offer, but you would assume one look up and down the street and reality would kick in.

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kenny-evitt

I definitely recommend Jane Jacob's classic "The Death and Life of Great American Cities" for some sharp analysis of things like this.

One of my favorite points she makes in this vein is how landlords on a block all wanted to rent to restaurants as they were willing/able to pay much higher rents. But there's a consequential tragedy of the commons whereby a block with nothing but restaurants is much worse off, for most if not all of the landlords because not all of the restaurants would be able to keep their tables full.

Interestingly, she remarked that often the best blocks were those controlled in whole or in great proportion by a single landlord because they could maximize their total rents by renting to a much greater variety of restaurants and there were positive spillovers/externalities to mixing different kinds of businesses, e.g. a block with non-restaurants, especially offices, would induce the restaurants to offer lunch or breakfast because, relative to the case where a block was mostly or all restaurants, there'd be a lot more traffic during non-dinner times.

Also related – I read something about a city or town that made a special exemption for landlords to commercial leases so that they could in fact allow businesses to occupy a space for a short, and possibly indeterminate amount of time. That obviously wouldn't be appealing to lots of businesses but it was still interesting to learn that special treatment was even required for them to offer arrangements like that.

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voxette-vk

Consider the United Arab Emirates.

Native Emiratis are 11.48% of the population in their own country. (So… the U.S. could absorb about… 2.2 billion immigrants before reaching the same proportion.) Are they suffering under the tyranny of the foreign yoke? Have their institutions collapsed under the demographic pressure? No, they’re all rich as fuck. And as bad as I think those norms are, they’ve been able to maintain their regime of traditional Islamic law.

Now, are the immigrant workers often treated unfairly and denied legal protections? Sure. But both groups are vastly better off than they would be if the natives had decided not to let anyone in, or to let people in in the proportions that the U.S. does.

The point is, we don’t even the wits or the decency to exploit the impoverished people of the world. On the spectrum from “share and share alike” to “give them a fair deal but no handouts” to “you can come but the boss will take your passport until you pay off your debts, and his word wins any dispute”, we’re below that, at “fuck you, get out of my sight”.

We’re like a community of billionaires who would rather do all their own manual labor than bring in hired help to stink up the place. And hiring someone to clean your toilet would be degrading to him, don’t you know?

People have somehow convinced themselves of this delusion that it’s worse for people to be second-class citizens than personae non gratae.

Personally, I’d like to let people come and work here under a fair deal, with equality under the law and a path to naturalization. But goddamn, if you want to give Americans of “native” descent special privileges and a stipend funded by taxing immigrants, and force immigrants to go back to the ghetto by sundown, even that would create vastly more wealth and dramatically lower global inequality from where it is now.

Support for free immigration could be motivated by compassion. It could be motivated by a sense of justice. But if nothing else, it should be motivated by sheer fucking greed!

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kenny-evitt

The Copenhagen Interpretation of Ethics (unobservedly) strikes again!

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argumate
Anonymous asked:

Sides of tumblr: science, art history, superwholock, crochet, and, uh, argumate.

what about the history of art history, or art history history

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kenny-evitt

I hope you're happy, as now there will certainly be various meta-history departments metastasizing everywhere and it's only a question of how many years, and adjunct lives, must be sacrificed before they're all subsumed under a single general meta-history department, if indeed we are so lucky that that peace is ever achieved.

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argumate
Anonymous asked:

What does one use, besides gmail, that has all the good aspects of gmail?

what are the good aspects?

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shieldfoss

Infinitely sized inbox for $0 that accepts wildcard addresses so e.g. I can tell websites my address is shieldfoss+spam@gmail.com and then filter away on emails sent to shieldfoss+spam without having to be more clever than that.

(NB: I do not have shieldfoss@gmail.com so don’t even try)

disk is cheap, far better to control the whole domain.

That’s hard to do for $0.

if the only good aspect of GMail is that they give it to you for “free” in exchange for whatever value they can squeeze out of you then it’s shit.

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kenny-evitt

The main benefit is that you can be assured that, if anyone can, Google will deliver your email to its recipients. That’s one of the biggest drawbacks to hosting your own, or even paying for a second-class tier or provider, besides (securely) maintaining one’s own servers of course if one wants to actually control their own data (as much as that’s even possible with email).

nice email you’ve got here, sneers Google, be a real shame if it didn’t reach its recipient

Aaargh – I wish I could think of a suitably funny response to this.

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argumate

we still talk about the chicken and the egg despite knowing that the egg preceded the chicken by millions of years, what’s a better metaphor?

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kenny-evitt

Which came first, the chicken or the chicken egg?

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argumate
Anonymous asked:

What does one use, besides gmail, that has all the good aspects of gmail?

what are the good aspects?

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shieldfoss

Infinitely sized inbox for $0 that accepts wildcard addresses so e.g. I can tell websites my address is shieldfoss+spam@gmail.com and then filter away on emails sent to shieldfoss+spam without having to be more clever than that.

(NB: I do not have shieldfoss@gmail.com so don’t even try)

disk is cheap, far better to control the whole domain.

That’s hard to do for $0.

if the only good aspect of GMail is that they give it to you for “free” in exchange for whatever value they can squeeze out of you then it’s shit.

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kenny-evitt

The main benefit is that you can be assured that, if anyone can, Google will deliver your email to its recipients. That's one of the biggest drawbacks to hosting your own, or even paying for a second-class tier or provider, besides (securely) maintaining one's own servers of course if one wants to actually control their own data (as much as that's even possible with email).

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argumate

an example of how solving complicated coordination problems with insurance requires willingness to let companies go bankrupt and industries grind to a halt for unspecified periods, which few governments are willing to tolerate, or for the government to step in as insurer of last resort, which undermines the whole concept of private insurance markets.

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kenny-evitt

From what I just read, it seems eminently appropriate for that industry to "grind to a halt" for an "unspecified" period.

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argumate

an important aspect in safety culture and preventing the normalisation of deviance is executives and managers leading by example, as they cannot expect their employees to apply more diligence than they themselves do.

more concretely, they need to reward those who implement and follow safety procedures and punish those that do not, as it is all too easy to offer the opposite incentives by rewarding speed or cost-savings and punishing what appears to be inefficiency but is actually actions taken to reduce the risk of disaster.

in a large organisation this needs to go down the chain, where upper management provides appropriate incentives for middle management to provide appropriate incentives for safe operation, etc.

although I do wonder about the role of insurance and limited liability complicating this discussion; it’s easy enough for a large organisation to shrug off the loss of a dozen workers or more in preventable accidents, even though the individuals in question may feel that their lives are worth more than the cost of insuring the resulting payout.

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kenny-evitt

I don't think either insurance or limited liability complicate this much.

Insurance companies don't want to make payouts, they'll often, if not almost always, increase premiums after they do make a payout, and the company is at risk that their policy will be dropped or not be able to be renewed, by any insurer, and some types of insurance may be required for the company to do business at all. Competent insurance companies pro-actively try to mitigate things like moral hazard too.

Limited liability doesn't prevent one from bankrupting one's company, and that's a pretty bad career move where one could have reasonably prevented it. The limitedness of the limits of liability is also not unlimited, e.g. managers, directors, or executives can still be criminally liable for particulary heinous instances of negligence. Owners and shareholders may also not be particularly swayed because their previous profits are protected.

There is of course a clear tradeoff among safety and everything else as everything is risky to some degree. Never realizing any loss is strong evidence that one is leaving significant value un-captured and that's bad as value is valuable. It's probably optimable to incentivize employees to be risky enough that sometimes something bad happens – but not so little that nothing does.

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argumate

was sketching out a kind of local consumption subsidy system involving issuing currency that could only be converted back to AUD by local primary producers and manufacturers, then I got confused because in a way isn’t that identical to just printing more AUD which can also ultimately only be spent within Australia?

but at least it would give you more discretion over exactly what it could be spent on, allowing you to subsidise particular industries in a more general and efficient form than just handing over buckets of cash directly to favoured companies.

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kenny-evitt

Why not try to subsidize the adjustment to re-employment elsewhere? Outside of a particular (and good) reason to subsidize some industries, the most general and efficient form would be just handing over buckets or cash to favoured companies.

Perhaps an example would make this clearer.

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marcusseldon

I also find the strong skepticism toward collective bargaining from many principled supporters of free markets to be very…bizarre. Most businesses, especially the big ones that employ most people, are collectively owned by shareholders. It seems like the only way to determine a fair market value for labor is for the workers to bargain collectively with the collective ownership. Otherwise the capitalists can take advantage of the unequal power dynamics and will have unequal power in the bargaining process with individual workers (except in the handful of industries with significant labor shortages). Thus, the labor won’t be properly valued, and the market can’t really be said to be free.

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alexanderrm

Personally as a supporter of free markets I completely agree with this, although the ideal solution would be to “bar employers from unionizing” as well, but with all the inefficiencies that would cause worker unions are probably the second-best solution- although maybe employers should be legally able to quit a union and apply to hire a different union, just as employees can quit an employer and seek employment elsewhere? But I guess you could also argue that it’s balanced since an individual shareholder can sell their shares (they can’t, however, take the chunk of land or part of a factory which their shares represent) and invest in a different company just as an individual worker can.

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argumate

why aren’t unions just companies owned by the workers who hire out their labour? so you don’t hire out an individual, you contract with the union, and the reason you do that is that they have all the people, and the reason they have all the people is their collective strength gets them better conditions; companies on both sides of the transaction.

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kenny-evitt

This exists, but not (that I'm aware of) at the scales you're imagining (or that I'm imagining you're imaginging). Certainly there are small contracting companies of which all the employees are partners, but I'm pretty sure that's very rare. I'd guess that's because, on the 'union' side, the difficulty and cost of managing and organizing the union itself is too high for anyone to want to just equally share the 'profits' of that with anyone that ever joins later.

Absent unions being owned (equally or not) by its workers, it already is pretty much "companies on both sides of the transaction". Probably the only reason why we neither call nor consider unions 'companies' is that there are specific legal benefits and privileges available only to them, and not just any contracting company that serves as a business agent for its members.

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marcusseldon

Something that has been bothering me lately is a tendency I’ve seen among some libertarians to be extremely skeptical of any policy to make compensation or working conditions better for workers collectively. I call it “libertarian defeatism”.

According to the libertarian defeatist, we shouldn’t raise the minimum wage because employers will simply reduce hours or automate jobs. 

But also it would be ineffective for the government to mandate, or for unions collectively bargain for, better benefits because employers will simply discriminate against hiring people who would most need or take advantage of those benefits.

And don’t even think about unionizing, they say. At best, you’ll turn your company into an uncompetitive, bloated mess that will reward lazy people and eventually go under. At worst, you will be fired or your job will be outsourced.

And on it goes.

Each individual argument is plausible, at least superficially. However, the libertarian defeatist believes that all these arguments are true and seems to always reach for a good reason to reject any proposal to improve workers’ lives collectively. Their view seems to be that we should always be highly skeptical of any policy to improve working conditions or worker pay.

You might reply that “yes, they do reach for those arguments, but that’s because libertarian defeatism is correct”. It’s true, libertarian defeatism might be correct. Perhaps the only thing that could benefit workers is a 1950′s-level economic growth and gains in productivity–or utopian UBI schemes–and everything else is foolhardy.

I don’t think that claim is plausible. We can clearly see that some wealthy countries have better benefits and working conditions than others. Compare Sweden to the US, for example. Benefits such as a PTO and paternity/maternity leave are much more generous, people work fewer hours, and yet unemployment is low and people seem to be doing well enough for themselves (in fact there is less poverty than in the US).

We should always evaluate policy proposals rigorously, but the libertarian defeatist is strongly biased against the very concept of helping workers through government action or collective bargaining, and seemingly wants to shut down any discourse about helping workers (except maybe through economic growth). That does not strike me as a correct or productive way to look at things.

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voxette-vk

Shocking that libertarians favor deregulation aimed at increasing economic growth for everyone over government intervention aimed at redistributing wealth from some groups to others.

I mean, this is almost definitional. People who favor extensive labor-market regulation and unions with government-backed monopoly powers aren’t libertarians and don’t call themselves that. They are just social liberals.

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kenny-evitt

I think there's a good point in the original as I'm a libertarian but I also think that *a possible* "policy to make compensation or working conditions better for workers collectively" *could* be great and wonderful. I'd imagine you're referring to a political/governmental/legal/regulatory policy whereas I generally don't like those but I'm wholly open to any such *voluntary*, i.e. 'private', policy.

As part of the background evidence/intuition I'd like to point out that it's 'defeatist' to maintain that the only good policy with these goals is one that is enjoyed by *every* worker, at all times, forever, with no qualifications or conditions. Take Sweden for instance! I'm sure it's not the case that *any* of their policies that benefit large numbers of workers benefit *every* worker. For one, they don't benefit lots of workers that don't live or work in Sweden! That's a little cheap tho. But also, I'm sure, even in Sweden, there are a significant number of workers whose employment is, either in full or part, of a black or gray market. The black market is the 'natural state' of any market. (The natural state of 'economic interaction', in the most general sense, *defaults* at murder and theft.)

It certainly seems like it would be easier to just demand, via the coercive (and violent) apparatus of the state and its police forces, that all employers provide lots of wonderful benefits and high wages and salaries, but the more strictly those demands are enforced, the costlier that enforcement becomes. In other words, people *should* be allowed to work for arbitrarily small wages or salaries, without benefits, etc., and other people should be similarly be allowed to accept or even require such terms for employment. There are lots of valuable patterns of economic activity that would be otherwise criminalized.

But it is totally possible to have voluntary unions that operate without any special political/governmental/legal/etc. privileges. They could be great! I'm sure they've existed, that some exist today, and that they provide real important value to their members. To deny that such things are possible without the intervention of the state seems like it might be aptly termed 'socialistic defeatism'.

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argumate

I keep thinking back to when Kim Kardashian set a picture of her butt would destroy the Internet and I briefly worried she was planning to hack the root DNS servers and replace every DNS entry with a base64 encoded version of it.

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kenny-evitt

*break* the internet

I hate hearing that phrase. I'd be fine with someone using it *accurately* – "damn, they really did it" (tho please, whomever you are, break it in a way it can be easily fixed)

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marcusseldon

I also find the strong skepticism toward collective bargaining from many principled supporters of free markets to be very…bizarre. Most businesses, especially the big ones that employ most people, are collectively owned by shareholders. It seems like the only way to determine a fair market value for labor is for the workers to bargain collectively with the collective ownership. Otherwise the capitalists can take advantage of the unequal power dynamics and will have unequal power in the bargaining process with individual workers (except in the handful of industries with significant labor shortages). Thus, the labor won’t be properly valued, and the market can’t really be said to be free.

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bambamramfan

Also the legal dynamics of preventing unions is actually done through restricting the employer’s freedom of contract. There is no legal requirement for employers to only bargain with one union for all employees (a clause known as Union Security.) However it is a clause unions demand as part of any contract, because duh.

So conservatives and libertarians who want to weaken unions create “right to work” laws which actually work by telling employers “you can not sign a union security clause.”

Funny enough, neither the employers nor idealistic defenders of liberty as an abstract concept reject this methodology. Even though it’s basically the same as a law telling you “you can’t sell your labor for 50 cents a day.”

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kenny-evitt

I reject that methodology. I don't have a principled objection to unions – they're basically employment agencies, in a free market. You're right that the 'right to work' laws are a coercive distortion of free markets, but I suspect they're a response to earlier pro-union distortions, i.e. the federal laws, rules, NLRB, etc..

I thought there were laws/rules/something that either mandated or significantly tipped the scales towards 'union security' for any unionized employer workforce. Otherwise, it'd seem like a weakness similar to recentish efforts to allow employees at a unionized enployer to *not* pay dues, i.e. a possibly catastrophic weakness to unions viability.

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kenny-evitt

I was surprised to learn that, as-of a few years ago, something like 70% of all rental units in NYC were 'regulated', i.e. rent controlled (10-20%?) or 'rent stabilized' (the rest).

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