Some people seem to think that the fracking boom was yet another of those nonprofitable failures that got funded during the weird zero-interest era. (Like WeWork or Uber, but even bigger—the fracking industry got $300 billion in investments while Uber+Lyft got $30 billion.)
Maybe this illustrates a weakness of market economies as opposed to command economies. If you recall, during Obama’s first term he tried to directly invest government money as loans to renewable energy companies, and it was a Republican talking point that the government should not “pick winners”. There was no small amount of glee when one of the loan recipients, the solar cell manufacturer Solyndra, failed.
But at the same time the Quantitative Easing bonanza picked winners in the most market-based way possible: print money, use it to buy bonds to drive down interest rates, and let the cash trickle down wherever the invisible hand (or its avatars, Masayoshi Son and Mohammed bin Salman) sees fit. In retrospect, it turns out that savvy venture capitalists and the wise crowds on reddit also are not great at picking winners, so maybe we can call it a tie.
However, what the central government planners can do, and the markets can’t, is consider externalities. It’s probably hard to tell in advance whether solar cell factories or fracking wells will be profitable. But it seems clear that the fossil fuel investments have huge climate change costs, so if both of them are balancing on the edge of profitability, you can probably safely say that the renewable energy company has better expected social utility.