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Misery Loves Company

@discoursedrome / discoursedrome.tumblr.com

We are all in the gutter, but some of us are blogging.

Honestly, the more time goes on, the more I find the personal-psychological aspect broadly explanatory of how people understand and engage with things on the nation-scale or higher.

The issue is just that as a normal person, all this stuff is unimaginably complicated, you wouldn't have enough information to know where it's going even if you did know how it all worked, and you have almost no control over any of it anyhow. When the things that make your life worse are very local and immediate, the way you engage with them is often pivotal, but trying to improve your life by engaging with national politics is incredibly unrewarding in expectation, even if it might save your life or secure your fortune in a lucky case. And it gets even worse at the global scale, and then at the metaphysical scale where religion happens, there's nothing you can engage with at all outside your own feelings. And yet, the point to all these changes is to ultimately make yourself feel happier and more enriched; there are much more direct ways to do that, ways that you have a lot of control over as an individual!

So people tend to just pick whatever approach they like the best, since something that can make you feel good about the world and the future is usually worth whatever suboptimality it might entail in terms of your influence over large-scale events. And yet you can't just decide to feel good about things, all this is still running on top of your basic personality and the framework you use to engage with real situations in your day-to-day life, so even though there's some suspension of disbelief involved, actually finding some way to feel good requires a lot of specific ingredients. These can be really harmful -- the extreme case is, like, people who get killed doing some extreme act that doesn't accomplish anything, and "drop everything to join a cult" is also popular -- so an ideology, group or leader that can produce good feelings at a low cost is a pretty good deal, from the street-level perspective. In most cases being wrong genuinely does not have a huge effect on the quality of the outcome!

I think what puzzles me, and perhaps always will, is the appeal of the dictatorship to people outside of it.

"Joseph Smith is God's Prophet and he gets to do whatever he wants and have sex with whoever he wants" or "Adolph Hitler is the supreme ruler of Germany and all of his decisions are correct and nobody every gets to contradict him ever" are pretty obviously appealing to Smith and Hitler, but I'm profoundly confused about what other people find inspiring about that idea.

Hmm, my feeling is that it's not so different from the appeal of God, or of having respectable parents when you're a little kid, or whatever. People don't want to be in charge, but they like the idea that someone strong and impressive and wise is in charge and looking out for them specifically. The idea of hierarchy is important to their sense that the world is orderly and predictable and just, and having that hierarchy be surmounted by a superman is comforting because it gives it a unitary spirit. It's particularly comforting to people who feel like things are spiralling out of control in the world, or like they're on a war footing against a sinister enemy; people tend to anthropomorphize the polity in the person of its leader, and unilateralism and confidence make the leader seem stronger and thus make their supporters feel stronger by extension, all without them actually having to show strength or make hard decisions themselves. People are eager to believe in things that are larger-than-life, in apotheosis, and they'll give a lot to people who can credibly pose as that, even though there's always an element of willing suspension of disbelief.

When people want these leaders mainly in order to make concrete changes in their own lives, they'll judge them on whether or not they do so, though even then they may favour a dictator simply because they find the unilateralism practical. But dictators appeal most to people whose problems are mostly psychological rather than concrete, even though such people will generally understand and describe those problems in concrete terms. When someone is your dictator -- not just in the sense that you're subordinate to them but in that you're their client and they appeal to you and promise to help you defeat your mutual enemies -- that feels good, and the charisma and the image of strength and perfection is comforting enough that people aren't too inclined to sweat the details.

This is why it's normal for this type of leader to make obviously absurd claims about what they've accomplished, and for their fans to accept them blindly -- it's not that their followers are that stupid, it's that the leader is mostly there to offer them a sense of security and satisfaction, so they're not going to fight attempts to do so. What matters is not the factual plausibility but the overall vibe and the sense of being on the ascendant and victorious side of history, the leader's ability to inspire belief in the idea that the world is correct, or in the process of being corrected, where before it seemed wrong.

This is all sort of complicated because a dictator often puts a lot of strain on the populace, and I'm never exactly clear how this balances out, at what point it becomes a bad deal on that basis alone (as opposed to because the dictator is specifically victimizing you, in which case it's a bad deal immediately). But the psychological comfort is definitely worth something, to the populace; it's not that unusual to value it more highly than one's own life.

Awkward thing about the current Trump admin is that the Democrats are likely to take from it the lesson that they need to be more boring and centrist and sell themselves harder on that basis, when in fact the actual lesson seems to be almost the opposite of that, something like "the most electable candidate is a charismatic lunatic who promises to crack the firmament, murder god, and suck the marrow from his bones"

at first I was complaining that the canadian election was boring because the outcome was a foregone conclusion, but now things are actually happening and I still don't care since I'm not emotionally invested in the candidates and it's not going to influence my behaviour one way or the other, so maybe I just can't be pleased

To elaborate on a point I only brushed up against earlier, people give really undue importance to whether or not a social movement or convention should be understood as "cynical" or "a scam", when in fact this approach has mostly lost its value by the time something has become "social".

I don't honestly think there's as much of a distinction between wilful deception and self-delusion as people imagine, but there is some difference, and it matters when we want to anticipate somone's behaviour: for example, a true believer is more likely to act against their self-interest for ideological reasons. That individual predictive context is the limit of its value, though. Once a social movement has outgrown or outlasted its founders, their motivations for founding it are no longer very helpful to understanding it, and if an institution's leadership and followers are a mix of cynics and true believers, as is almost always the case, that tells you little about the institution itself -- it only matters when trying to understand key figures, like "is this monarch really pious or just concerned about their reputation".

Many people act as though an instrumental explanation for the teleology or ontology of a social order requires scammers and marks, as though that directed course demanded an alert hand on the tiller at all times. This tendency arises both in those who reject such explanations because they (putatively) treat adherents as fools, and in those who begin by accepting the explanations, then deduce on that basis that it must all be directed by a star chamber of cynical manipulators. It seems to me like a close cousin to the arguments for intelligent design.

Social institutions are instrumental in the first order, and in the sweep of history that pragmatism precedes humanity's capacity for abstract thought and self-conscious deception. It isn't surprising that we can organize in our self-interest without consciously modelling the process, or that selective pressures might herd us into those arrangements through trial and error; it would be surprising if it were otherwise!

And so conscious intent simply doesn't shed much light on discussions of this nature, not when they're about durable and large-scale groups or ideologies. People insist on it because they're transposing their ground-level interpersonal perspective to the high-level systemic view, and I find that anthropomorphizng and a bit narcissistic. Of course, the impersonal "system view" has its own pitfalls -- it's a key part of its own social institutions, and their instrumentality is to generate legitimacy, satisfaction, and fellow-feeling more than it's to understand the truth -- but this is little help as an antidote.

Back in the naughties, especially in New Atheist circles, you used to see the line a lot that the reason religious people invented the afterlife was because they were scared of dying and they needed a comforting lie to sleep better at night. Incidentally, that's not true; aside from the problem that people in the past generally believed in their religion, and this whole line of reasoning (along with "religion was invented solely to control the masses") assumes a level of cynicism by religious leaders that historically is actually quite rare, we have a pretty good cognitive framework for why human beings tend to come up with a belief in spirits, ghosts, and gods, and why that tends to lead to a belief in an immaterial spirit world and (quite naturally from there) an afterlife.

Research into the cognitive aspect of spiritual beliefs has explored human intuitions about the self include its partability and permeability, which I think I've mentioned here before; our intuitions about ascribing agency to phenomena in our environment, even when no agency is immediately evident (a sort of overly-cautious tripwire for evading predators) and our overactive tendency toward pattern-matching lend themselves naturally to belief in invisible, intelligent agents shaping the world around us. When you combine that natural tendency to believe in such agents, plus intuitions about a self that can include a separate immaterial component, and the ways in which (for example) the feeling of a familiar presence can be triggered by some stray bit of sensory input or a misinterpreted environmental cue, it is very common for societies to develop a belief that the dead continue to exist in some form and continue to act in the world, possibly from some invisible spirit realm, because that is something that people are just straightforwardly experiencing on a day-to-day basis. In that sense, belief in something like a soul and something like an afterlife is more like a belief in rainbows or solar eclipses--sure, people might get the underlying phenomenological explanation for what they're seeing wrong, but they're not speculating, they're doing their best to interpret the actual experience of feeling the presence of dead loved ones and their apparent agency in the world.

That said, in the case of Christianity, we also know historically the framework that motivated the development of specifically Christian doctrines about the afterlife, which emerges from the context of Second Temple Judaism at the turn of the era. Here, the motivation was not one of comfort stemming from fear of death, it was one of morality and the problem of evil. Earlier thinking in the sort of broader Levantine cultural sphere had mostly envisioned the problem of evil as being one related to divine favor and punishment; God or the gods rewarded the righteous and punished the wicked in this life (cf., for instance, all the narratives in the Old Testament where God sends this or that conqueror to punish the people for their sins). Increasing philosophical sophistication, literature grappling with the ways in which the world could be patently unjust (like the Book of Job), and political circumstances like the conquest of Judea by the Romans and the evident lack of divine retribution against these oppressors, all led to dissatisfication in some quarters with that earlier theodicy. IIRC the influence of Greek philosophy and Greek thinking about the afterlife also played a role here.

Transposing the balancing of the moral scales to the afterlife, as some Second Temple-era thinkers did, helped construct what felt like a more intuitively correct theodicy: the wicked still got their comeuppance, even if you didn't get to personally witness it, and the righteous still got their reward. The exact nature of that comeuppance was up for grabs for a long time--there are like three different competing visions of what damnation looks like in the New Testament, and it's not until later that "eternal conscious torment" wins out as the favored position among most Christians. The righteous were always guaranteed salvation; but we know this wasn't a sop to people who were frequently scared of death because the idea that martyrdom guaranteed salvation was so compelling you had Christians begging the Roman authorities to put them to death, and even groups like the Circumcellions who attacked armed soldiers with clubs in the hopes that they could provoke martyrdom-by-cop. And you could paint these guys as fanatical outliers, but again, people in the past generally believed their religions, and we have mountains of writing, art, poetry, and music by Christians over the course of two thousand years where people are worried about a lot of things related to death (did I live a good life? will I go to heaven?) but who do not seem to be philosophically troubled by the question of whether the afterlife actually exists.

And of course the conflict between reflective and intuitive cognition is relevant here; one might reflectively believe in the afterlife, but intuitively recoil from deadly harm. I do not want to suggest that religious belief can trivially overwhelm human instinct to survive. But "the afterlife was invented as a comforting lie" is overly dismissive and flattens a complex phenomenon. It is, in its own way, a comforting lie--the lie that people in the past were all stupid, superstitious rubes, that we are infinitely smarter and more sophisticated than them, that progress will ultimately consign all such supernatural thinking to the dustbin of history. That such thinking is quite deeply rooted in our cognition and we may never be able to dispense with it entirely is very much at odds with a lot of the 2000s era all-religion-is-indoctrination children-are-born-atheist triumphalist cliches.

there's several things I find odd about this framing!

I spent so long trying to find decent practically-sized unbranded tote bags before discovering that the craft store just sells them. they're meant as base materials for people who want to add designs to them with embroidery or fabric paints, but forget that, I hate designs

we're a few years at most from it being common knowledge that captchas don't work. and when captchas don't work, what do you do? add ID verification? make people pay? elaborate behavioral analysis that flags new human users as robots 20% of the time and nobody notices?

tbh sites have been using "give us a persistent full-service cell phone number linked to a reputable major provider from the same area you're logging in from" as their captchas for ages now, so that will probably just get worse. people don't really care about whether someone is human or not, they care about volume, and so onerous and costly barriers to entry are ideal so long as you can avoid getting personally blamed for them

Lots of talk of Tumblr dying lately -- I honestly don't know if this is "it", but the site's eventual death was inevitable from the point it became clear that they could never make money, and the inability to save Matt's companies from Matt has definitely accelerated that timeline. Whenever it is I feel psychologically prepared for it, I guess.

The thing I feel weird about is that...well, I was pretty seriously considering deleting earlier this year. In the end much of the reason I decided not to was because I value having a record of all this stuff I've wrote, much of which is useful to articulate my own thoughts. But I don't think there's too much here that warrants reproducing; it makes sense in situ but it's nothing to collect anywhere else. So I have it backed up, sure, but I don't actually know how to get out of that what I get from it while it's still here, let alone where I'd end up going afterwards. That part's a bit sad. On the other hand, I am not sure how much I actually like it here these days, so the timing is good in that sense.

After Takahata's death in 2018, Hayao — now 84 — continued to create films with 76-year-old producer Toshio Suzuki. "If those two can't make anime or can't move, then what happens?" Goro says when asked about Ghibli's future. "It's not like they can be replaced."

okay, this is completely correct. but oh my god, that is a brutal self-own

I'm thinking about how, okay. There's this strain of utopian futurism descended from liberal modernism, yeah? It's pro-capitalist in the sense that it views corporations and entrepreneurs as the engine of improvements valued by society. And corporations aim to evoke that when concocting their own visions of a futurist utopia, because it's obviously a flattering paradigm, but they can't quite do it, because the liberal-modernist utopianism ultimately still sees micro-scale actors as oxen pulling society's plough, and that is not something they can countenance in their own utopia. And so when a corporation paints a rosy picture of the future it will bring about, it always depicts itself as hegemonic, even when appealing to an audience that values its freedom of choice.

In consumer-facing depictions this is usually latent, just depicting a world where (for example) everyone drinks Coke and loves it obsessively and no one ever drinks a soft drink other than Coke. Internally and toward investors, these visions can be more overtly monopolistic, but even then, they often envision an irrationally unchallenged dominance -- a world where no one would ever dream of going without the company's products, and their competitors could never make anything that compares, and all this without the perpetual rat race that real companies face in trying to outrun their patents' expiry dates. 3M doesn't do this Jetsons stuff much, it's much more "look at all this great stuff we did in the past, here's what we've got cooking this year." But then, 3M is in Minnesota and the World of Tomorrow guys are all in California or at least Seattle, and that is not necessarily explanatory but it is, at least, symbolically resonant, yeah?

(For whatever reason, Facebook was always especially bad about this. Even when faced with mainstream skepticism, their pitches had a way of veering off into "after our inevitable ascent to the throne of all creation we will rule over a thousand years of peace on Earth", which is one of the reasons they were ahead of the pack in being seen as cartoon villains. Don't say that part out loud!)

Anyway, people tend to overestimate the durability of corporate dominance, but even still I think this type of thing was usually viewed as an odd self-indulgence of the corporate mindset, a kind of fairy curse pitiably undermining their ability to compel the hearts of the public. But it feels less like a joke nowadays, because there's been an extraordinary degree of consolidation, and a vibe shift where monopoly potential is touted over and above innovation as the engine of profitability. There is a greatly reduced faith in the ability of either the market or the government to assure a level of competition which keeps the plough moving, and whether that's justified or not, this whole "in the glorious dawning age we will be to economics what ATP is to biology, thanks to our network effects and first-mover advantage" schtick is not really helping.

I think something weird happened where the zero-interest post-GFC apocalypse world restructured the upper half of the economy around a subconscious belief in the TRPF, so everyone was chasing miracles that seemed transformatively unlike the normal explanations for profitability; valuations inflated to levels that would only make sense if all that were justified, and now it's a huge fraction of the paper value of the US economy. When the money seems to think that eventually one of these companies is going to become the emperor of the universe, and the blue chips already seem to have more control over the government than it does over them, it becomes easier to feel threatened by all those airy fables about better living through world domination.

OK so obviously it makes sense that artists would be anti AI. For like, mercenary class interest reasons. But it's bizarre to me that anti AI sentiment is so popular among the gen pop. I think the obvious angle is "a lot of AI art is shitty" but like. A lot of early cgi was shitty, and I don't think many people were against cgi in the 90s. Maybe they were? Idk the AI art thing is particularly stark because there was this period early on when it was not very good and then there was no ill will towards it. And then it got good and popular and is now hated by an appreciable segment of the (online) population. Very odd.

There's a couple separate things, I think. The first is just that you get an exaggerated sense of it in contexts where people are socially adjacent to artists because they tend to align with whatever the artists feel strongly about as long as they're otherwise mostly neutral -- social politeness/friendship rules trump abstract principle. This goes a long way to explain seemingly inconsistent attitudes toward IP violation for different types of art, for instance, or different standards for "auteur" work than media produced by a large team. The adjacency factor also means that values mirror pre-existing subcultural divides between communities, which allows people to bring all their prior animosity toward enemy style-tribes to the topic; this is where you get the connection with the "techbro" for example, this is partly just alluding to existing cultural distinctions between masc/likes-coding/makes-money subcultures vs. fem/likes-drawing/makes-no-money subcultures, which are highly relevant to internet arguments but not at all to the underlying question.

But beyond all that and unrelated to it, there's also a generalized anti-tech sentiment which comes from the fact that over the past ten or fifteen years "tech" has become synonymous with the plutocratic ruling class. Some of this is justified, some of it is symbolic (a lightning rod for wider class and ecological tensions), but either way it has currency. Honestly, on a purely vibe-based level it's an amazing allegory for how profit motive crushes the human spirit -- as long as you don't look too closely at what the human production of art was already like under the profit motive, in the jobs most at risk from AI.

People are against anything which seems to be strongly positive for big tech nowadays, on the (frankly pretty good) heuristic that nowadays the only things that are very good for big tech are very bad for society. This has a negative interaction with the boastful hype that always accompanies product launches and investment rounds -- I guess it's a bit comparable to the "great reset" stuff where people misinterpreted vapid Davos talks as a NWO threat, "I don't see myself in this fanciful representation of the world of tomorrow." The more fanciful the representation is, the worse!

“I am the captain of this ship”, what an incredible phrase to say, what an incredible phrase to bellow, “I am the poster of this blog” not so much.

For some reason I'm convinced that "I am the blogger of this post" somehow has a great deal more gravitas than the reverse.

and you are right!

this is the blogger of our meme content

It matters not how low the stakes, How circular the dialogue; I am the author of my takes: I am the poster of this blog.

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