US politics: an analysis by this bozo right here.
Hello I'm Felix Warren and I've been reading Politico every day since early 2016 as the equivalent of how other people watch their "soaps." One of my chief goals in this weirdly obsessive reading habit was to see if I could understand what was going on enough to analyze it, and if not, how long it would take me to get to where I could do so. The test would be if I could predict where general trends in politics and related news would go. It's been like that for the past few years, actually--I've been able to anticipate a few things before they were reported over the past couple years in fact. So, this is my take on where things are going now that it's almost November 2023.
The big thing is, people worry a lot about where the Republican party is going. Republicans do as much as Democrats do. And this is because the Republican party has been having some internal problems for awhile, which became very visible once the Tea Party became a big thing. And I think what's going to happen eventually with the Republican party is either a split or a purge, where it becomes several parties that more accurately reflect their own members' beliefs. The Democratic party could also use a split but it's still able to come to compromises and agreements for the good of a strong majority, so I don't know if it's in danger of cracking in half in the same way.
In the short term, though, things are probably gonna coalesce around Trump until he has a downfall. The man can't live forever and he can't stay out of jail forever either. I know a lot of people get scared of his followers having some sort of uprising but I think his downfall is going to be a lot more boring than all that. His real flaw is that he's got a horrible paper trail and he's not able to instill loyalty in his many, many co-conspirators. When three lawyers flip on a person within as many days, it's a sign that that person isn't as powerful as they wish they were.
The biggest thing that's affecting global politics is that the status quo that was sort of invented after World War II is the only thing that we have keeping international "norms," and it's been wearing down significantly in the last decade. One big part of the equilibrium has been that several world powers, including the US, make a huge chunk of their GDP off of weapons sales for "defense" to their allied nations. A lot of people look for excuses to fly drones or fire rockets because then there's more to order for restock. I don't know how this winds down. It's not sustainable in terms of technology and in terms of resources, let alone lives. Nuclear technology is wrapped up in this, with a new fleet of submarines on order, and a new fleet of IBMs being requested--things we have no long-term plan for when it comes to storage of the waste and decommissioned items.
I feel that if we can ride out the next five years there's a chance that some technologies could come about that could dramatically change the status quo for the better. I don't think it'll be AI. AI is largely a buzzword and often a hoax--the ultimate mechanical turk.