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ToastyStats: Fandom data analyses

@toastystats / toastystats.tumblr.com

Main blog/askbox: @destinationtoast Fandom stats on AO3: bit.ly/toastystats-ao3 Code on on Github: github.com/fandomstats/toastystats FAQ: Yes, you can reuse any of my data or my code, and you can cite any of my posts. :) Blog icon by Foxestacado.
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Hi! You made another (absolutely fascinating) post about commenting trends in fandom over time, and that got me thinking about another thing I’m curious about: differences in comment culture across fandoms. Anecdotally, I’ve noticed several fandoms (the Silmarillion and The Murderbot Diaries come to mind) that seem to get proportionally more / more detailed comments than other fandoms I’ve been in. I have no idea if this is backed up by evidence or if it’s possible to analyze that kind of thing with actual data, but I think it’s interesting!

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Hey! Sorry this took ages to respond to -- I believe you were probably referring to this post or the original of that thread, if you or anyone else wants a refresher on the context. :)

That's really interesting, and matches with my own anecdotal experience when I've observed when I've dipped my toes into fandoms that were smaller but had at least a handful of people posting. I would bet that communities are more likely to form in smaller groups -- you keep recognizing and interacting with a smaller group of people, and you feel more motivated to be thoughtful about their fanworks. Which I suspect then encourages even folks outside the tight-knit core community to leave longer comments.

But I have no relevant data yet -- that's all anecdotal/speculation on my part. I hope to get back to working on my ao3 comments soon and to keep looking at comment trends over time, though. And you've helped inspire me to think about analyzing comment length and to compare different fandoms, as part of that! :)

I'd also love to hear if anyone else has relevant data, or feel free to share your relevant experiences and/or hypotheses!

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hi! research question I'd love your input on:

do you know how to generate size-of-fandom stats? I'm researching the Ghost fandom and while I know from the This Week in Tumblr posts about what their size is *now,* I'd like to try to compare it to past years, and be able to make statements like "x% of the fandom is reblogging explicit content."

I'm also looking for deeper info on how tumblr works if someone deactivates - do their notes vanish too?

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It sounds like you want to gather Tumblr information only -- is that right? I don't have a lot of expertise with Tumblr data (I think I last gathered some over a decade ago), but it looks like their API still lets you retrieve posts with a certain tag and specify a timestamp, if you're willing to do a bit of programming. So you could, e.g., retrieve the last N posts of each month that use a particular fandom tag. And then you can compare those samples of posts to see how the content has changed over time. If you want to do that, there are libraries in Python and probably other languages that can make it easier to work with the Tumblr API.

I believe the posts retrieved this way don't include reblogs, so you'd also have to look at the post notes to get info about how many reblogs different types of posts are getting. As to your question of deactivated accounts within those notes, I'm not certain of the answer. I frequently see reblog chains where some accounts in the chain have deactivated, so those notes are not entirely gone. But I don't know if the replies/likes from deactivated accounts disappear from post notes. Anyone else know?

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Happy Femslash February! <3 I have new stats about big F/F ships and F/F-heavy fandoms on AO3. For more data, explanations, and clarifications/corrections, please click through to AO3.

I was confused for a bit that catradora isn't on a couple of these, and then realized--like, a TON of catradora fic are also tagged for glimmer/bow (who are m/f) which would disqualify those fics from numerous of the lists if I'm understanding them correctly.

Yep yep, you're totally understanding right. (And if I hadn't been in such a rush when sharing this, I might have explained that, or shared the following... glad to come back and expand on it now!)

SPOP and Catradora show up very high on the lists when we look at some of the other graphs:

In previous versions of F/F stats, I had shared these two graphs in the main post. But people had reasonably pointed out that a lot of the ships on this list (e.g., Marlene/Dorcas) are often background ships for M/M or F/M ships -- and a lot of the fandoms that allegedly have the most F/F also frequently have background F/F.

Folks wanted to know which ships and fandoms had the most F/F if you only focused on the works where F/F is foreground -- but unfortunately, there's no way to do exactly that, because AO3 doesn't tell you which ship(s) or category(/ies) are the main ones, when there is a hierarchy. All I can see is which categories the author has tagged, not which are most important. As a result, it's like you said -- when I also pulled data on F/F and removed all works that also had tags for F/M and M/M, I removed a lot of Catradora works and other works that were genuinely about F/F.

There is, of course, no perfect set of data; there are just pros and cons of different data sets. But it's fantastic to see a bunch of newer F/F ships (at least compared to when I started these stats back in ~2013, lol) like Catradora that are genuinely huge without mostly appearing as background ships! <3 And Catradora is one of the ships where it's most reasonable to look at the overall F/F ships graph (without filtering out the F/M and M/M) because that fandom seems to have so much genuine multishipping that isn't putting the F/F in the background (maybe a bunch of that even has the F/M ship in the background; not sure). I'm guessing that's true for a lot of the bigger ensemble shows where one of the biggest ships in the fandom is F/F, but where not all the main characters are female (contrasted to the K-pop bands or a show like Yellowjackets, where almost all the ships are F/F, so filtering out other categories doesn't change as much).

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I told someone over in the fandom data projects community that I'd share data on the size of fandom tags on AO3; then it occurred to me that perhaps other folks might also want this spreadsheet.

(It sometimes takes a sec for the data to load in Google Sheets, because there's a lot of data. If anyone can't get it to load lmk, and I can share CSV files instead.)

Here's a graph of how many fandom tags are in each of the media categories that AO3 uses:

A few notes about this data below the cut:

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Hello! I saw that you had done an AO3 language analysis back in 2020, when Chinese fandom began its boom. I'd like to ask, is there a way to filter for fics on AO3 by language alone? If I wanted to see the entire Archive's catalogue of fics in Spanish, is that something I can do? Or is it something more for people "behind the scenes", so to speak? Or would I have to filter for Spanish in every fandom tag?

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Yes! The Work Search page will let you filter by language, and optionally limit the results to a particular fandom (or a particular ship, or other tag/combo of tags):

(If you want to include only a specific fandom, keep scrolling down to the Work Tags section, and enter the fandom tag you want. And if you scroll down further, you can also sort the results by kudos, hits, word count, etc.)

Right now, there are about 186K Spanish works on AO3:

Hope that helps! :)

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Anonymous asked:

Hello! I keep hearing that fandom culture has changed, and there are less comments now than there were years ago. Have you noticed this in your analysis? Is the percentage of comments being left today lower than before?

Hey! Thanks for the question -- it prompted me to start collecting data about comments (after procrastinating on it for a while, because I had to write new code to gather comment data). I've also seen other discussions from folks also thinking about how to do this kind of analysis (like in the fandom data projects community) -- hopefully we'll end up with multiple people attacking this from different angles and getting a variety of data about comments!

I'll give a sneak preview that partially addresses your question and contains some good news. If we look at the fraction of AO3 works that get at least one comment (focusing just on one-shots for now), I think things have gotten better over the past decade on AO3*:

In other words, it tentatively looks like more works were getting at least one comment in 2024 than in 2014 (for a variety of time periods). One caveat, though -- if a bunch of works with no comments got deleted in the interim, there will be survivor bias here. I'll try to look into that possibility later. Another caveat: this is based on only like ~100 randomly selected works from each year -- this may all change with more data!

Another interesting tidbit: I still see some of the 2014 works getting comments. In fact, ~30% of works have gotten new comments over 5 years after they were posted, and it looks like ~10% of one-shots posted back in Mar 2014 got a new comment in 10 years later, in 2024.

I'm still doing other analyses; there may be other factors that better match with the discourse around how comment culture has changed. It could be that comment activity peters out faster now than it did back then, for instance. Or the total number of comments left on the popular works is less now than it was back then (though my current methods may not be able to capture that). Edit thanks to quick eagle-eyed readers: it's likely that some of what people are thinking about is ratio of comments to hits -- that is hard to compare in 2014 to 2024, because we don't know which hits came from which years. But I am working on some analyses along those lines. :)

If you have other hypotheses about what's changed in commenting culture, feel free to share! I'll look into what I can.

Some methodology notes:

*I've been tackling this by comparing AO3 one-shots posted in early 2014 to one-shots posted in 2024, and comparing activity in the days/weeks/months immediately after the works were posted. (To start with, I'm only scraping the first page of comments for each work -- meaning the first 20 comment threads -- so there are lots of comments I'm potentially missing for the really popular works. But for many works, this captures all the comments, and I think it may be sufficient for a lot of the analyses I am interested in.)

I'm choosing to focus on 2014 vs. 2024 because 2024 is close to now (but it's been long enough for comments to have settled down a bit), and 2014 was well after AO3 was established (thus it was already a pretty lively time on AO3). I don't want to collect data about every single year because it's too time intensive/too hard on AO3's servers. But if people think that I should be looking at different years, I'm interested in feedback.

Because it's only been ~10 months since March 2024, I am limiting a lot of my analyses to only look at commenting activity the first ~10 months after works were posted in both cases.

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I pulled some numbers in November shortly after making that fandom data projects post based on filtering for numbers of works over a year and numbers of comments (sorry I did make the opposite graph from destinationtoast so lower is better here) - the 2024 number is going to include works that are very new so don't put too much trust in it. In general I'm sharing these numbers since I already have them but it doesn't account for the things toastystats was measuring: fic gets more comments over time, so grabbing a snapshot of total comments NOW is ignoring that for fic from a decade ago people have had 10 years to comment

I also pulled median numbers of comments per fic (which you can figure out by grabbing the total number of fics per year which I already had and then filtering for works with <x comments until it's about half) - the fact that this peaks in 2017 like the other graph is expected, but I think it's useful for the discussion to note how low ALL these numbers are

Some notes on methodology: I used ao3's search page and did a bunch of filtering using the "Date" field for "x to x+1 years ago" which means that my years are all actually slightly off: for example 2024 as listed here is Nov 19 2023-Nov 19 2024. I think the Date field is also date updated not date posted, to the extent that that makes a difference with oneshots? Happy to share my spreadsheet but it would probably be a better idea to redo it with a search for "created_at" (and figure out a way to automate if you're grabbing a bunch of numbers)

I also grabbed comments on the 21st most commented work (21 because it's the top of the second page of results, the 1st varied wildly and let me find a lot of people who were just having whole long running conversations in the comments, which is super interesting but doesn't really tell you anything about comment culture) - not posting that graph because it looks coherent until you divide by hits and then it's incoherent and in general I think any individual fic is not a great source of stats.

Oooooh awesome, thanks for sharing!! Among other things, this makes me think I should look at 2017 as another comparison point and potential peak of commenting.

And yeah, I think that makes sense about not wanting to rely overly on any one fic's stats (though I like hearing about your thinking/explorations trying to weed out the outliers with the 21st most commented fic!)... I am expanding my comment scraper to also scrape hits (and kudos) so that we can average the comments/hit ratio over a bunch of works.

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Anonymous asked:

Hello! I keep hearing that fandom culture has changed, and there are less comments now than there were years ago. Have you noticed this in your analysis? Is the percentage of comments being left today lower than before?

Hey! Thanks for the question -- it prompted me to start collecting data about comments (after procrastinating on it for a while, because I had to write new code to gather comment data). I've also seen other discussions from folks also thinking about how to do this kind of analysis (like in the fandom data projects community) -- hopefully we'll end up with multiple people attacking this from different angles and getting a variety of data about comments!

I'll give a sneak preview that partially addresses your question and contains some good news. If we look at the fraction of AO3 works that get at least one comment (focusing just on one-shots for now), I think things have gotten better over the past decade on AO3*:

In other words, it tentatively looks like more works were getting at least one comment in 2024 than in 2014 (for a variety of time periods). One caveat, though -- if a bunch of works with no comments got deleted in the interim, there will be survivor bias here. I'll try to look into that possibility later. Another caveat: this is based on only like ~100 randomly selected works from each year -- this may all change with more data!

Another interesting tidbit: I still see some of the 2014 works getting comments. In fact, ~30% of works have gotten new comments over 5 years after they were posted, and it looks like ~10% of one-shots posted back in Mar 2014 got a new comment in 10 years later, in 2024.

I'm still doing other analyses; there may be other factors that better match with the discourse around how comment culture has changed. It could be that comment activity peters out faster now than it did back then, for instance. Or the total number of comments left on the popular works is less now than it was back then (though my current methods may not be able to capture that). Edit thanks to quick eagle-eyed readers: it's likely that some of what people are thinking about is ratio of comments to hits -- that is hard to compare in 2014 to 2024, because we don't know which hits came from which years. But I am working on some analyses along those lines. :)

If you have other hypotheses about what's changed in commenting culture, feel free to share! I'll look into what I can.

Some methodology notes:

*I've been tackling this by comparing AO3 one-shots posted in early 2014 to one-shots posted in 2024, and comparing activity in the days/weeks/months immediately after the works were posted. (To start with, I'm only scraping the first page of comments for each work -- meaning the first 20 comment threads -- so there are lots of comments I'm potentially missing for the really popular works. But for many works, this captures all the comments, and I think it may be sufficient for a lot of the analyses I am interested in.)

I'm choosing to focus on 2014 vs. 2024 because 2024 is close to now (but it's been long enough for comments to have settled down a bit), and 2014 was well after AO3 was established (thus it was already a pretty lively time on AO3). I don't want to collect data about every single year because it's too time intensive/too hard on AO3's servers. But if people think that I should be looking at different years, I'm interested in feedback.

Because it's only been ~10 months since March 2024, I am limiting a lot of my analyses to only look at commenting activity the first ~10 months after works were posted in both cases.

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This is such a great list/set of analyses! Thanks to Randomist1031 for putting in the work to collect and share this data.

I'll be doing my annual top fandoms/ships/characters based on public works sometime in January (ish). But it's REALLY good to have the private works listed also, and to see how that varies by ship!

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Bluesky & fandom education data

  1. I'm on bsky now. I'm mildly active on Bluesky now (or "bisky" as I say it in my head thanks to the urls) at destinationtoast.bsky.social. Mostly meaning I'll be crossposting my more major fandom stats there and responding to being tagged, as I used to do on Twitter.
  2. How educated is fandom? I just got tagged in a thread asking if I knew of any data about fandom education levels:
#FanStudies folks, I'm looking for information on educational attainment in fandom, particularly adult fans (≥25 yo). I've been through the Ao3 2013 & 2024 surveys; Fansplaining 2019 shipping & Overflow survey. No ?. I know acafans are a thing, but not numbers. Any suggestions?
— Justine Debelius (@jwoodelius.bsky.social) December 1, 2024 at 12:14 PM

I don't know any relevant research. If you do, please share!

For the heck of it, let's run an unscientific poll here, because everyone loves polls. Sorry for any US-centric terminology; I modified the categories from the US census but tried to internationalize.

(For those of you currently working on degrees, I salute you and wish you the best! 🫡 )

The AO3 Demographics Survey 2024 was an unofficial demographics survey of 16,131 AO3 users conducted in January 2024. We have just finished posting our initial results, so here is just a taste of the graphs and data you can check out now over on AO3!

We will be continuing to work on this project in the New Year, so please make sure you follow this blog or subscribe to the project on AO3 to keep up to date.

A full list of the survey questions with links to the relevant data is below the cut!

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Okay - reading your stats about Goncharov (and LOVING it) and can't help but wonder if you've done any stats regarding Steve Kornacki fic, because I remember a rise in stories during the LAST major election and am curious if he gets a boost every four years. ;-) (Especially now that Chuck Tingle has written a story about it.)

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Hey! So glad you enjoyed the Goncharov stats -- I've been pleasantly surprised by how enthusiastic so many folks still are about stats related to the film. :D

Ha -- I had missed the fact that Chuck Tingle wrote about Steve Speve in SPEVE KORNACKI POUNDED ENTHUSIASTICALLY BY HIS HANDSOME ELECTION MAP! XD But there has been no recent surge in Kornacki works on AO3.

There are 27 works on AO3 that use the Steve Kornacki tag, and the most recent one (a Loki/West Wing/Newsroom crossover which includes the extreme rarepair Jed Bartlet/Loki) was last updated in Sept 2021.

There are 35 AO3 works that mention Steve Kornacki, but they're all from 2021 or earlier except for one OFMD AU work that was posted in 2024 (it takes place during the 2020 election, and it only mentions Steve in the author's note).

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In honor of two years of Goncharov, I've archived my original stats and analyses (including discussion/stats about the prevalence of femslash in the fandom), and I've done some follow up analyses.

Click through to AO3 for more data and discussion, and for any clarifications/corrections.

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Methodology musings: AO3 Tag Search

(finding the biggest tags on AO3/in an AO3 fandom)

I recently got two asks about specific characters/ships/fandoms that I answered in part by discussing AO3 Tag Search. I've archived both asks/answers on AO3, and I've also summarized some Tag Search info/tips here (see below the cut).

First, the AO3 links:

In which I start out trying to help someone debug a Transformers ship search weirdness, but I end up giving (hopefully) more generally helpful info/advice on finding the biggest ships. Contains notes on the limitations/quirks of Tag Search (as of Oct 2024).

An eagle-eyed reader noticed that some character tags (including Wanda Maximoff) were tags missing from last January's analysis of biggest fandoms, characters, and ships. (Most of the missing tags were not missing from the graphs, but from further down in the longer lists I provided -- including Wanda.) Here I share data about the missing character (and ship!) tags, along with some methodology notes about how this happened.

Next, my AO3 Tag Search methodology summary/tips:

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Anonymous asked:

Hi,

I'm new here, but your Halloween fic stats just crossed my dash a couple of times. I have some insight as to why Fall Out Boy and MCR are top of the list. Members of both bands have expressed a love of Halloween/scary movies etc. They've both played Halloween shows over the years and dressed up on stage. One of MCR's members even has a Halloween birthday.

So I think the fans latched on to that and it shows in the fics they write.

It looks like you put a lot of work into these posts so I'm off to check out some of your other stats.

Ooh, thanks for sharing! Halloween shows in costume sound like such fun. And I can see how all the things you mention could easily inspire a lot of Halloween fanworks!

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